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    Twins 4, Rays 3: Harrison Bader Brings His Fireworks for a Twins Win!

    The Twins were held silent again through most of this Independence Day battle against the Rays, but Harrison Bader left the yard twice, including a walkoff home run, to launch the Twins to a much-needed victory.

    Steven Trefz
    Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

    Twins Video

    Box Score
    SP: Chris Paddack 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K (87 pitches, 57 strikes (66%))
    Home Runs: Harrison Bader 2 (8, 9)
    Top 3 WPA: Bader (.411), Louis Varland (.242), Brooks Lee (.211)

    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs
    image.png.2e4a9c997e4361d9dce723a4c09883aa.png

    The Twins limped home from a 2-4 road trip five games under .500, and at risk of becoming "sellers" at this season's trade deadline. The good news? Today marks the start of a nine-game homestand and the Twins are 22-17 at home. The bad news? The Twins have only scored three runs across their last four games, and they were a measely 4-9 at home in June. The good news? It's the 4th of July, and the Twins haven't lost on Independence Day since 2019! The bad news? The Twins haven't caused any fireworks for a long, long time. 

    Chris Paddack (3-7, 4.52 ERA) came into today's contest knowing that he had to throw a gem to keep his offensively struggling teammates in the game. Former Twin Zack Littell (7-7, 3.51 ERA) looked to notch his second win of the season off of his old club. The conditions were hot on the field, but could the urgency and importance of the moment light a fire under the Twins as well? Or would their spark continue to fizzle out when it mattered most?

    No Early Fireworks
    Paddack began the game looking like a man on fire, setting down the first nine Rays that he faced. Unfortunately for the Twins, their current struggles continued against Littell as well. Minnesota managed to get a player on base in each of the first three innings, but they failed to cash in a run in any of the opportunities. Willi Castro singled and stole second base in the bottom of the first inning, which marked his fourth consecutive game with a swiped base. Trevor Larnach struck out, and Carlos Correa lined out to end that threat. Royce Lewis got on with an infield dribbler in the bottom of the second with two outs, and Ty France left him right there.

    The Twins' best early chance for fireworks came with two outs in the bottom of the third inning. Castro walked, and because he stayed put at first, Larnach was able to pull a soft grounder through the right side to put runners at the corners. With their big money man Correa up, the Twins felt so poorly about Correa's chances to deliver that they put on a double-steal with the slow-footed Larnach, and he was cut down at second base to provide yet another way to end a scoring threat for the Twins fans to witness in 2025. 

    Paddack Doesn't Blow Up, but Bader Does!
    After that disappointing series of events on the bases, Paddack kept his no-hitter going until Brandon Lowe snuck a single through to right field with two outs in the top of the fourth. On the very next pitch, Junior Caminero roped a single to left, and suddenly the Twins were under attack and at risk of surrendering the first run of the game. The Sheriff faced off in a duel against the dangerous and All-Star Game bound Jonathan Aranda, and Aranda couldn't lay off the high heat on a full count and Paddack and the Twins breathed a collective sigh of relief.

    That sigh lasted until the bottom of the fifth inning, and then Harrison Bader lit the fuse that ignited the Target Field faithful. With one out, Bader took a 90 mph sinker that didn't sink, and sunk it into the second deck in left to put his team ahead 1-0.

    Fun While it Lasted, Which Wasn't Long

    Paddack entered the top of the sixth inning with 76 pitches, and he was slated to face the top of the Rays lineup. Josh Lowe jumped on a changeup for a single to start the inning. Yandy Diaz came up next and absolutely crushed a slider to the tune of 113 mph exit velocity. The liner scooted all the way to the fence, and since it happened on a 3-2 pitch in which Lowe was running, it plated Lowe, and knotted the game up at one apiece.

    With nobody out and Diaz in scoring position, Paddack departed and the hopes of Twins Territory fell on Danny Coulombe. The lefty reliever induced a line out from the other Lowe, Brandon, for the first out. Caminero was less hospitable, however, and he deposited a bloop single to right to score Diaz and to take the lead.

    Looking for a Spark...Some Fire...Anything?
    Unfortunately, the next round of noise came from the Rays' bats against Brock Stewart in the top of the seventh inning. Ha-Seong Kim singled to lead off the inning, and then stole second to immediately put pressure on Stewart. Chandler Simpson walked to add even more pressure, but luckily, Danny Jansen failed to lay down a bunt, and his infield fly left the runners stranded where they were. So, the Rays decided to move them on their own, sending Kim and Simpson on a double-steal, but Ryan Jeffers was up to the challenge and nailed Kim at third for the second out. The Lowe named Josh came up next, and he immediately ensured that Stewart would see an increased ERA by singling in Simpson with two outs to make it 3-1 Tampa.

    Cole Sands eventually got the Twins out of that half of the inning and back up to the plate in the bottom of the seventh. Wallner and France singled to put runners at first and second with one out, but Bader couldn't deliver more fireworks; he struck out to bring up Byron Buxton in a must-have situation. Buxton delivered, dumping a double down the left-field line to plate Wallner and to put the go-ahead run in scoring position. Lefty Garrett Cleavinger came in to get the Rays out of the jam, but he drilled Castro to load the bases. Brooks Lee replaced Larnach for a righty/lefty matchup, and Cleavinger decided to end the drama himself by hitting Lee with a high and inside pitch to tie it up!

    Correa was next man up, and he hoped to exercise his bases-loaded demons and to send Target Field into a fireworks frenzy. He struck out, badly.

    Varland Deals, and Bader Blasts
    The Twins needed their well-rested bullpen to be clutch in this afternoon affair, and Louis Varland was up to the challenge and then some. Varland topped out above 100 mph on his fastballs, and set the Rays down in order in the eighth AND ninth innings to set up someone for a hero moment on Independence Day. Turns out we already saw that hero once today, and Harrison Bader is his name. Kevin Kelly stayed in the game to start the bottom of the ninth, and after escaping a few bad pitches in the eighth, Bader took his first pitch middle-middle sinker deep and over the flowers in left to end the game with one last homerun fireworks display! 

    What’s Next?
    The Twins look to win the series and keep the good times rolling on Saturday with another afternoon contest. The Twins still need to fill Bailey Ober's shoes, and most likely the next man up for Saturday's contest will be righty prospect Travis Adams. Whether Adams is allowed to start, or will make his MLB debut after an opener is used remains to be seen. The Rays will send righty Taj Bradley (5-6, 4.79 ERA) in hopes of taming the Twins offense. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm CDT.

    Postgame Interviews

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

      MON TUE WED THU FRI TOT
    Varland 0 19 12 0 19 50
    Stewart 0 0 15 0 23 38
    Coulombe 0 0 9 0 11 20
    Topa 0 0 0 16 0 16
    Jax 0 0 14 0 0 14
    Funderburk 0 0 0 13 0 13
    Durán 0 0 9 0 0 9
    Sands 0 0 0 0 5 5
    Wentz 0 0 0 0 0 0

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    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

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    Featured Comments

    37 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

    Have you not seen him wearing a back brace in the dugout? There was a story about how it takes hours before the game to get his feet into playing shape.

    He’s been wearing some heat or stimulation wrap on his back since ‘23……..baseball players stats are ebbs & flows……..Bader was great ….. not really good for a month …… stinging the ball lately. CC was brutal through most of May ……. had his Average up to .260 a few days ago ……. has had a rough few games. If he hits .270 going forward (his typical career mark) he’ll be near .265 for the Season. His power is lacking - XBH totals could use a jolt after the Break! He’s playing consistent SS so I don’t really see him as being a glaring issue, especially not going forward.

    Bader has been playing well above what was expected, which has been a treat. The Twins need some talent for the future and I wonder if there are any teams willing to trade for Bader. I'm looking at the Dodgers and wondering .... Jax or Duran plus Bader and Emmanuel Rodriguez for Dalton Rushing, River Ryan, and Emmet Sheehan.

    59 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

    I am among the most ardent supporters of the need to develop young/inexpensive players and I have been pointing to the Rays and Guardians as examples for a long time.  However, a couple things should be pointed out here. 

    One, most TDers actively speak out against the operating models of these teams.  The most repeated themes on this site might be "dumpster diving" and "cheap Pohlads".  Tampa does waaay more "dumpster diving" and they spend far less that the twins.

    Two, there is a point of diminishing returns.  Players best years tend to be the years they are arbitration eligible.  If the team was able to add talent in a perfectly uniform manner, they would have 13 prearb players with 13 arbitration eligible players or players or extensions and never have the need to add a single free agent.  They could average $10M on arbitration players and be within their current spending level.   

    I agree with your basic point here.  They have been mediocre in adding young talent and that won't cut it with below average revenue.  I do see this ratio improving soon.  Paddack will be replaced by Festa / Matthews.  France will be replaced by Julien or Sabato.  Vasquez might be replaced by a FA but Cardenas has a good shot at that spot given his defense.   Bader is 50/50.  If they agree to terms with him, one of Larnach or Wallner gets traded.  Coulombe might be resigned or replaced by another free agent but we also might see one or two of the prospects being used in multi-inning relief role.  The development of Jenkins / Rodriguez / Martin will hopefully force a trade of Larnach or Wallner and further increase the ratio.  My bet is the ratio will improve in a month and pretty much stay that way.

    I know you see what I'm talking about.

    I'm just less optimistic that the ratio will be improving soon. I pray you are right but I'm just not sure. The Twins have had a highly ranked farm system for many years now and not enough to show for it.

    I believe it's quite possible that IF the ratio improves... it will be because the Twins have no other options. Even... the Margot's of the world become too expensive and Sabato is taking France's place... not because he is ready but because they have to. 

    I don't know if the Twins are failing to develop or are purposely choosing to limit the exposure of young players but either way... it's scares me and it needs to be fixed.   

    I just broke down the outlook for 2026 in an earlier post. It's pretty scary. The bill is coming due. This club needs to turn around this development thing quickly.        

    51 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

    When Lewis was on the IL, Brooks Lee was the youngest position player (24), and the second youngest was Wallner (27). That isn't much youth at all, even more than the number of pre-arb players would indicate. The Twins do need to get younger and faster if they want to compete. 

    Perfectly stated.

    The simple counting of pre-arb players leaves a lot of factors untouched. 

    2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

    Bader has been playing well above what was expected, which has been a treat. The Twins need some talent for the future and I wonder if there are any teams willing to trade for Bader. I'm looking at the Dodgers and wondering .... Jax or Duran plus Bader and Emmanuel Rodriguez for Dalton Rushing, River Ryan, and Emmet Sheehan.

    Does trade Duran or Jax close the door on competing next year? It is hard to imagine them spending the money to fill the closer role in free agency. I get selling the door for this year. I don’t get selling next year.

    Sheehan is just returning from Tommy John with few innings pitched this year. Ryan is out this season with Tommy John. I don’t think I would count on either being a significant member of the staff in 2026 and the best predictor of pitcher injury is previous injury. They both have had significant injuries.

    I get that we need a catcher and the expiring contracts we have probably won’t help find that catcher. I just think the 2026 and 2027 roster will be better if they don’t make this trade. Teams can win with a mediocre catching group. Can teams win with a mediocre bullpen? Maybe Sheehan is a top closer of the future and that future is ready to begin soon. On the other hand if he is that close then maybe the Dodgers don’t trade for bullpen help and instead turn to him.

    7 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

    Does trade Duran or Jax close the door on competing next year? It is hard to imagine them spending the money to fill the closer role in free agency. I get selling the door for this year. I don’t get selling next year.

    Sheehan is just returning from Tommy John with few innings pitched this year. Ryan is out this season with Tommy John. I don’t think I would count on either being a significant member of the staff in 2026 and the best predictor of pitcher injury is previous injury. They both have had significant injuries.

    I get that we need a catcher and the expiring contracts we have probably won’t help find that catcher. I just think the 2026 and 2027 roster will be better if they don’t make this trade. Teams can win with a mediocre catching group. Can teams win with a mediocre bullpen? Maybe Sheehan is a top closer of the future and that future is ready to begin soon. On the other hand if he is that close then maybe the Dodgers don’t trade for bullpen help and instead turn to him.

    Agree with all the maybes ... no idea if the Dodgers would even trade Sheehan for the 3 Twins much less add Rushing and Ryan.

    Jax can be unhittable but also looks nervous at times. He is really good. Duran is tough for batters trying to square up the ball and also gets ground balls. He is really good. Because I'm wanting an upgrade at catcher I offer Jax first with Bader and EmRod. Sheehan is ready to contribute now and would fit in the bullpen. I'm willing to wait for Ryan to finish his rehab. EmRod is a gamble for all. Bader isn't here next year and the Twins sell high now.

    2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

    Have you not seen him wearing a back brace in the dugout? There was a story about how it takes hours before the game to get his feet into playing shape.

    Turns out there was a reason two teams tore up a contract after a comprehensive medical exam. 

    The last 3 years of the contract are gonna be a doozy 

    Correa being one of the highest paid players in the entire game and one of our team leaders should inspire confidence. These are the guys you want to come up with RISP and in big game situations. All this year, whenever Correa comes to bat in a big moment, I let out a defeated sigh, and then watch him strikeouts or weakly ground out to short like he does so often. Twins need to find a way to get him right or he will be hurting this team with that contract for at least the next 4 years....

    2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

    Does trade Duran or Jax close the door on competing next year?

    Sorry I forgot to answer this question and I meant to be direct (first) with this. No, I believe Duran or Jax can fill the role by themsleves. Additionally, I'm high on Varland. Arms like Sands and Steart are still inexpensive and I would resign Coulombe for $3M. Those 5 can be supplemented by any number of others including Travis Adams, Justin Topa, and a few minor league additions. My thinking is that the Twins need some offense and catch

    6 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

    I know you see what I'm talking about.

    I'm just less optimistic that the ratio will be improving soon. I pray you are right but I'm just not sure. The Twins have had a highly ranked farm system for many years now and not enough to show for it.

    I believe it's quite possible that IF the ratio improves... it will be because the Twins have no other options. Even... the Margot's of the world become too expensive and Sabato is taking France's place... not because he is ready but because they have to. 

    I don't know if the Twins are failing to develop or are purposely choosing to limit the exposure of young players but either way... it's scares me and it needs to be fixed.   

    I just broke down the outlook for 2026 in an earlier post. It's pretty scary. The bill is coming due. This club needs to turn around this development thing quickly.        

    The expiring contracts plus Correa's reduction is $42M so they will have the option to replace players like Bader, France and Coulombe via free agency.  Realistically, I know your skepticism is very fair.  My optimism is basically out of necessity because I whole heartedly agree with your premise here.  The odds of them solving the problem in free agency are not good. 

    Which replacement causes you the most concern?

    1) Keaschall adequately replaces Castro.  2) Festa replaces Paddack  3)  Julien or Sabato replaces France  

    4) Cardenas replaces Vasquez.  5)  Martin/Rodriquez replaces Bader.

    #5 is the one this gives me the most concern but Rodriquez also has a higher ceiling.

    8 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

    Agreed. Keeping Bader will require a new contract. Probably in the 9-12m a year for 2-3 years range. Worth it? I think so but a tough call, assuming he wants to stay.

    2 years at $19M is Top End in my opinion…….can’t let the 2 HR game cloud logic too much. He’s historically good against LH pitching and he can play defense - usually misses chunks of season w/injury (knock on wood) & this year he’s hit RH pitching better and with others injuries, he’s been played more than anticipated.

    Wallner needs to get his act together or their may need to be a knew approach for ‘26 OF corps.

    11 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

    The expiring contracts plus Correa's reduction is $42M so they will have the option to replace players like Bader, France and Coulombe via free agency.  Realistically, I know your skepticism is very fair.  My optimism is basically out of necessity because I whole heartedly agree with your premise here.  The odds of them solving the problem in free agency are not good. 

    Which replacement causes you the most concern?

    1) Keaschall adequately replaces Castro.  2) Festa replaces Paddack  3)  Julien or Sabato replaces France  

    4) Cardenas replaces Vasquez.  5)  Martin/Rodriquez replaces Bader.

    #5 is the one this gives me the most concern but Rodriquez also has a higher ceiling.

    That's a hard question for me to answer. I'm really trying to keep away from speculation on individual prospects so my participation in any kind of ranking wouldn't be worth much. 

    However, I can tell you that youth doesn't scare me at all. They cause me not one bit of concern so the answer is none of them. I get that sense of security from watching the other 29 teams. Youth is performing quite well around the league.

    When I watch the Twins... I am suddenly concerned about all of them. We are behind. despite every a consistently high ranked farm system for quite some time... we are behind our peers. 

     

     

     




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