Three-Bagger: Mauer's Decline, Morneau's Woes & Dozier's Pop

I'm not sure if I was one of the ones that jumped on you at the time, but allow me to pile on now.  I can't see a significant resurgence happening as long as the Twins are paying an aging 1B $23M/yr to hit .261/.324/.357./.681 (and dropping) in the three hole.  It is vital to have Mauer stop being that guy and be more like his old self instead, unless we want to postpone the resurgence until 2018.

 

At the time he got the contract, I recognized the importance of resigning him, but the dollar amount surprised and concerned me.  They paid for 8 years of the 2009 Joe Mauer when even at the time that year looked like an aberration. That said, I would have been fine with 8 years/$150M, and that would have made very little difference in the current situation.  Paying an aging 1B $18.75M/yr to hit .261/.324/.357./.681 doesn't really give more flexibility than paying him $23M.

The Twins were taken to the woodshed on the contract.  No doubt about it.  His agent could not have had any more leverage.

Having said that, I thought all along that the Twins likely viewed Mauer's contract as part production and part marketing expense.  He is the most visible Twin.  By far the most jerseys at Target field are his and he probably brings female fans out and watching on TV.

My point is, if the Twins from day one viewed his deal as $16M player and $7M goodwill/marketing then it is not really fair to expect the player to play up to $23M. 

As much as the Twins "were taken to the woodshed", Joe Mauer probably would have received more money on the free agent market. In 2009/2010, both the Yankees and Red Sox needed a long-term catching solution. It wouldn't have surprised me even a little to see one of them offer over $200m for Joe that offseason, particularly if they started bidding against one another.

 

Joe Mauer's contract was fair market value at the time, if not slightly under what he would have received in free agency.

 

The reality of the situation is this: big money contracts usually turn out to be a horrible deal for the purchasing team in the long run. Joe Mauer is not an aberration here.

The key there is "had he been a free agent that year".  He would have hit free agency a year later.  

Instead of .365 average, 28 HR, and an OPS of 1.031, he would have hit free agency with .327, 9 HR, and an OPS of .871.   Still an elite catcher, but it would have been interesting to see what he would have received.  I don't think 8 years and $23M represents any material discount.  Let's also not forget that he received certainty a year earlier. Had that last year been 2007 or 2011 he would have made far less than $184M.

His numbers were certainly lower in 2010 but it was still good for a 140 OPS+, the third highest number in Joe's career to that point. Given the power-sucking vacuum that was Target Field in 2010, I think he still gets roughly the same contract on the free agent market. I don't think teams would have blinked at the change in his numbers from 2009 to 2010 (particularly the Red Sox, who absolutely prized Joe's Monster-banging ability, elite OBP, and very good defense).

 

Does anyone really think that Epstein wasn't salivating at the prospect of bidding on Joe Mauer? I don't know if there's a player in baseball who would have appealed to Theo more than Joe Mauer in 2010.

He would have gotten a lot of money, but I don;t think the same amount.  I think 2009 was the year many thought Joe broke out some power.  He had 44 HR from 2008, an average of about 10 a year.  He hits 28 in 2009.  Then goes back to hitting 9 in 2010.  2010 showed how flukey 2009 was and that was the guy moving forward, IMO.

And as big of a hole as Boston or New York may have had, it was reasonable to assume the back 50% of that contract was not going to be as a catcher.

I don't think the powers to be actually figured his power numbers were there for good after only one season of having them.  I would hope they wouldn't think that. That would be poor trend analysis. I think most FOs would have waited to see if Mauer was able to repeat 2009's power number before assuming 2009 was going to be the new norm.  I certainly didn't expect him to continue that.  

Let's say he instead just won another batting title in 2009 (not exactly out of the norm for him at the time) and didn't have the power numbers jumping up too, that's still 3 batting titles in the last 4 years.  He still gets a huge contract and likely the same one. I also doubt on-field production was the only thing being considered when they were considering his contract.

It's getting so bad that it's kind of sad watching Mauer hit.

Don't both sides have to consider finding something wrong with Mauer and putting him on the DL? Only short-term but two weeks helped last year. 

RANDY CHOATE TO JOE MAUER

sure he's the BEST LOOGY in the game

but ALL 4 PITCHES were BALLS Joe Swings at 2 of them, is out on 4 pitches.

I"m soo Sick of this routine

when he was pissed for getting rung up in the middle innings on A CLEAR BALL

he needs to go back up to the DISH next time and not swing at all, SWING less NOT MORE.

RANDY CHOATE DID NOT THROW JOE MAUER a single strike in that At-Bat.

That is happening at least once a game to Joe now a days.

Agreed.  He gets consistently rung up on balls outside and is forced to swing at them.