The Twins Should Trade Both Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan This Offseason

Before I even get started, I want to tell you that I don’t want this to happen, but it’s what I think should happen for the medium-term health of the Twins as long as the Pohlads don’t spend. That said. It’s beginning to look increasingly clear: the Twins should trade both Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan this offseason. While this move won’t be popular, it will make the team better when the next contention window opens.

Let’s begin by talking dollars and cents. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes has said he won’t be surprised if the Twins set their 2026 payroll around the $100 million mark.

If the front office tenders a contract to all arbitration-eligible players and retains everyone under team control for next season, the projected salaries work out to around $95 million. That sure doesn’t give Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll much to work with, despite some obvious needs. Lopez and Ryan, between them, figure to eat up about 30% of that theoretical, self-imposed payroll limit. Eliminating $30 million from the books will allow for some interesting pickups to at least be possible.

This is important, because 2026 will be a year of transition for the Twins. As it stands, they have virtually nobody they can pencil in at the back end of the bullpen. The hitters, aside from Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, and Ryan Jeffers, haven’t consistently hit. The hitting corps figures to be bolstered by Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Kaelen Culpepper and Gabriel Gonzalez at some point in 2026, but as Twins fans are well aware, even top prospects sometimes take a while to figure it out at the big league level, and some never do. Because of this, there’s a wide range of outcomes around the offense, and that makes it challenging to even pretend to be all-in next season. 

Assuming the Twins aren’t planning on competing, it makes almost too much sense to trade both Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan. With two seasons of team control remaining, and the next window of contention likely beginning in 2027 or maybe even 2028, the Twins should be able to get a haul for the two star pitchers. Ryan, in particular, could fetch a similarly-talented pre-arbitration hitter in a challenge trade, or would net multiple top-100 prospects, and probably a couple of lottery tickets as well should the Twins front office prefer to deepen an already impressive farm system further.

Lopez is more expensive, making $21 million next season, so the return there would be a bit less, but still noteworthy.

Aside from maximizing the return the Twins would receive in trade, it’s important to acknowledge that the Twins will also have a bit of a starting pitching logjam. With Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober at the front of the rotation, there’s not a ton of room for the sort of established starters to get consistent run, and there’s no room for the top prospects. Aside from those three, there are fully nine guys that the Twins likely want to give significant innings to, in the short term, five of whom have very little to prove at Triple-A.

First, you have the five pitchers with projectability and varying levels of service time. Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, and Simeon Woods Richardson could fill a full rotation on their own. Each of those guys, in any given start, could look like an ace, or someone who has no business on a major league roster. To maximize their potential, they need to start, consistently, and with the Twins, until they show they can’t cut it.

On the farm, the Twins have four other intriguing hurlers in Connor Prielipp, Andrew Morris, CJ Culpepper, and Marco Raya. Each of these four may be destined for relief, but all still have a puncher’s chance to continue starting games, and all should see action with the Twins in 2026 and beyond.

Further away in the pitching pipeline, there are a few guys that currently look to have the potential to be above-average starters. Charlee Soto, Dasan Hill, and Ryan Gallagher (the return for Willi Castro) probably won’t be up before 2027 at the earliest.

That’s 12 guys behind Bailey Ober. Now, almost certainly the Twins will convert some — maybe even several — of them into relievers. After all, that’s how the Twins got Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Louis Varland, not to mention guys like Glen Perkins, Taylor Rogers, and most other elite relievers in Twins history. However, there’s no reason to feel forced to convert guys just so there’s space for them on the roster.

The last thing I want to say is that as a baseball fan, it’ll hurt to see Ryan and Lopez go. Both are excellent pitchers and are fun to watch.

Losing them will inarguably make the 2026 Twins team worse. However, with the Pohlads as owners, it’s clear that it’s business as usual, and the only way to field a competitive team on the regular is to also do so on the cheap. When you have two pitchers that are even a little bit replaceable, don’t factor into the long-term plans, and can net you a wealth of talent that can help form the next and hopefully actually successful core, you almost have to make the tough decisions that can help you win long-term.