The Ryan Jeffers Breakout Has Begun

When Derek Falvey tricked the New York Yankees into eating Josh Donaldson’s albatross of a contract, he brought in Gary Sanchez to play alongside of Ryan Jeffers. Unfortunately, Sanchez couldn’t find the success he had shown earlier in his career, and he was below average posting an 88 OPS+ while still playing relatively poor defense.

By the end of the season, Minnesota needed to acquire Sandy Leon simply to have a warm body behind the plate. The Twins had already put Jose Godoy and Caleb Hamilton behind the plate, and the system had no one else to turn to. Ben Rortvedt was sent to New York in the Donaldson deal, and the offseason became one of questions.

The Twins went out and got Christian Vazquez off the free agent market. A well-respected veteran with a World Series ring to his credit, Vazquez seems to be the perfect type of addition for a clubhouse that needed a new vibe. He had played with winners in Boston and Houston during his career. His production landed him a three-year deal worth $30 million.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been as billed on the field. Through July 28, Vazquez has played 67 games and owns an awful 70 OPS+. That’s well below his 84 OPS+ career mark, and it’s even further from the 94 OPS+ he put up since 2019. Fortunately for Minnesota, Jeffers has been a saving grace.

With only Edouard Julien ahead of him in fWAR among position players (1.9), Jeffers has already compiled a 1.5 fWAR in 2023. That mark is already a career best, and he still has plenty of runway to add for Minnesota.

How Jeffers got there is somewhat of a perfect scenario for the Twins. Drafted as what some considered a reach, and with the potential that he wouldn’t stick behind the plate, he has turned that narrative on its head. After flashing a 119 OPS+ during his first 26 big league games, he’s expanded upon that this season owning a 128 OPS+ across 60 games.

For Minnesota, Jeffers owns a .281/.385/.438 slash line. He’s done a great job cutting down on strikeouts and honing in at the plate. He is tracking well behind the career-best 14 home runs he hit during the 2021 season, but he should surpass the 10 doubles that sit as a high water mark. Picking certain spots on the bases, he has also stolen three bases after having none through the first three seasons of his career.

As a defender, Jeffers has always had a calling card as a pitch framer. That hasn’t slipped this season, and he’s turned himself into an all-around defender. With two blocks above average on Statcast’s new leaderboard, Jeffers is among the top 20 across baseball when it comes to keeping the ball in front of him. His pop time sits at 1.97 which checks in above average, and for the first time in his career he’s well above league average when it comes to throwing out base runners. With a 28% caught stealing rate, and the league sitting at just 21%, Jeffers has controlled the running game better despite stealing being more prevalent than ever across recent seasons.

There is still more to be done with Jeffers’ game as he looks to bring back some of the power he showed during the 2021 season. His hard hit rates are at a career low, and his barrel rate is way down. The outcomes have room to improve, but the process remains solid. Chasing at a manageable clip and controlling the zone, even better results may be on the way.

Jeffers isn’t a free agent until 2027, meaning he’s under team control for an entire year beyond the duration of Vazquez’s contract. He just recently turned 26 years old and is pushing to be on the heavier side of a timeshare is something that Minnesota could consider for him in the seasons ahead.

The Twins cemented certainty behind the dish when they signed Vazquez, and the emergence of Jeffers has brought the tandem to a whole new level. They both have combined to receive one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, and the results from the rotation shouldn’t be far removed from the backstop performances either.

At some point the front office wanted to see the player they envisioned when drafting him in the second round of the 2018 MLB Draft. Now beginning to see glimpses, continued development from here would be shined upon.

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