What Could a Royce Lewis Extension With Twins Look Like?

Royce Lewis and Bobby Witt Jr. have their similarities. Both are freak athletes who can contribute in any way imaginable on the field. Any team employing them is exceptionally fortunate, as both high first-round picks seem destined for greatness. There are also, however, several relevant differences when comparing a potential Lewis extension to the one Witt Jr. signed.

Lewis will turn 25 this June, while the Royals star will turn 24, a surprising reality considering Witt Jr. has an advantage of over 1,000 MLB plate appearances. That extra year in age may not sound like much, but Lewis has an extra year of team control and could already be beyond his prime when he is set to become a free agent--especially given his health history.

That past knee trouble is the other consideration, and it’s a huge one. Lewis’s injury history is no secret. Two torn ACL tears are certainly a factor in the process of finding an agreeable price for a long-term team investment. So are the oblique and hamstring injuries he suffered in 2023. Players rarely get healthier as they age, and an extension for Lewis would be an even bigger bet on his health than Byron Buxton's team-friendly deal was on him. As electric a player Lewis is, the Twins have to be smart in considering whether the injuries could draw away from his performance or keep him off the field altogether. 

That being said, it’s easy to argue that Lewis is the type of player worth gambling on. So what might a deal look like that both sides agree to? It’s hard to say for sure with the creativity allowed in many of these deals these days (to wit, Kansas City offering several consecutive opt-outs). It’s hard to say that Lewis should be directly on par with Witt Jr.'s extension, but it’s a good benchmark.

Something in the ballpark of 10 years and $210 million may be in the sweet spot. Instead of consecutive opt-outs at the end of the deal, perhaps he has one in year seven or eight, when he would still be young enough to pursue another contract if he feels he can beat the remainder of the deal.

This is still a deal that considers Lewis’s sky-high ceiling, though the lesser number in years and average annual value reflects his extra year of age, injury concerns, and shorter track record of big-league dominance. The first question is whether it makes sense for Lewis, a Scott Boras client, who could earn much more with a healthy season resembling his production thus far in his career. The second question is whether it makes sense for the Twins, who aren’t at risk of losing Lewis soon.

With the opt-outs in this particular scenario, Lewis may still be able to leave a year or two after he’s already set to hit free agency, limiting the payoff of the extension if he becomes the generational player he’s capable of being. While his salary will ramp up with each year of arbitration, those numbers are based partially on his performance. The Twins certainly wouldn’t mind giving Lewis healthy pay increases if he’s producing.

The tricky thing about such a vast extension is that it has to work for both sides when weighing risk and reward. The Royals and Wit were able to match up and keep him in town for what could well be his entire MLB career. It’s hard to imagine the Twins and Royce Lewis won’t at least try to do the same.

Does the proposed deal seem realistic to secure Royce Lewis for years to come? Should the Twins or Royce Lewis himself be wary of signing an extension with the lack of consistent track record in his career so far? Let us know below!