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    Rays 7, Twins 0: Twins Take an Extra Off-Day in St. Pete


    Steven Trefz

    The Twins got to town a day early in order to rest and to prepare for playing the best team in baseball. They should have stayed another day on the beach. The Rays are who we feared they were, and here's how the game went down.

    Image courtesy of Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Box Score:
    SP: Louie Varland: 6 IP 7 H 7 ER 4 BB 5 SO (90 Pitches, 58 Strikes, 64%)
    Home Runs: None
    Bottom 3 WPA: Varland (-0.223), Donovan Solano (-0.072), Willi Castro (-0.046)

    Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

    chart(11).png.f91adc5dd7c4817738eb02868a5dcb77.png

    The Twins entered Tuesday's clash with the Rays with some lineup adjustments. Carlos Correa was back to batting third after sitting out the Guardians series with planter fasciitis. Byron Buxton headed to the injured list, and Trevor Larnach met the team in St. Petersburg to take his place in the lineup. They faced a stiff challenge, with Zach Eflin and his .99 WHIP and 7-1 record. Meanwhile, Louie Varland attempted to keep the good times rolling having won three of his last four starts.

    Sometimes the Pitchers are Just Really Good
    In the first three innings:
    Eflin - 0 H, 1 BB, 5 K - 45 pitches
    Varland - 1 H, 1 BB, 2 K - 34 pitches

    Those commentating on the game professionally spun the angle that Eflin and Varland were nearly unhittable and on top of their game. Those commenting on the game from the Twins fan-zone were convinced that the Twins offense will never score again for at least a decade, maybe more.

    Sometimes One of the Offenses is Just Really Good
    In the top of the fourth, Correa belted a one-out double, 108 mph+. A Donavan Solano warning track fly ball, and a Larnach strike out later, the threat goes unredeemed.

    In the bottom of the fourth, the Rays displayed how offense works. Former Twins prospect (aka the other guy traded for Kenta Maeda) Luke Raley led off with a foul ball that ended up being called a triple. Could the Rays cash in where the Twins failed? That answer took all of four pitches. Randy Arozarena singled to center, and it was 1-0 Rays.

    Harold Ramirez followed that up with a walk. And then Randy Arozarena took the extra base on a fly out, and the Rays had runners at the corners with one down. Would the Rays cash in again? That answer only took three pitches, and Christian Bethancourt singled to where Michael A. Taylor and Correa weren't, and Ramirez took the extra base. 2-0 Rays with runners at the corners and one down.

    Do the Rays cash in again? Of course they do. The Ballys booth called it, and the Twins were caught flat-footed, as newly called up Vidal Brujan used the safety squeeze bunt to make the score 3-0. 

    Seven batters, three hits, one walk, and no home runs later and the Twins were in trouble.

    Pleading in the Fifth
    Remember in that last sentence how I pointed out that the Rays don't always need to hit home runs to score runs. Well they do that too, in fact they came into the game leading the majors with 103 home runs. Raley confirmed this statistical fact with a 108.6 mph, 450 foot cannon shot to center with Wander Franco trotting on home in front of him. One walk, one home run, 5-0 Rays after five.

    Live to Fight Another Day, or Fight to Win Today?
    Who needs former Twins that were traded as surplus from our stacked lineup, and are currently lighting up scoreboards? We have...ummmm...

    Nothing. The Twins had no answer. Eflin took his team into the seventh, the bullpen took care of the Twins in easy fashion. Meanwhile, Varland also took his team into the seventh, but Jose Siri greeted him there with a 110.8 mph, 457ft blast to make it a 6-0 score. Franco continued to rake, setting up another run with a double which a ground ball delivered upon. 7-0.

    Game, set, match to the superior team. 

    Sometimes the Twins Offense is Just Really Bad
    In the last 11 games, the Twins offense has been held to two runs or less seven times, going 1-6 in those games. In the other four games, the offense feasted to the tune of seven or more runs in each game and went 4-0. The overall record says 5-6, but does that really tell the story of how the team did?

    Will an AL Central division title, with a barely above .500 record, where half of the games are unwatchable be enough for everyone?

    What’s Next:
    The Twins send RHP Pablo Lopez (3-3, 4.54 ERA) and a well-rested bullpen out for the second game of the series in hopes that the Twins offense has another one of their seven run outings. The Rays annouced after tonight's game that righty reliever Shawn Armstrong (0-0, 0.00 ERA in 2 innings in 2023) will be their opener. First pitch is scheduled for 5:40pm CDT. 

    Postgame Interviews

    Bullpen Usage Chart

      SAT SUN MON TUE TUE TOT
    J. López 31 0 0 0 0 31
    Pagán 4 0 0 0 20 24
    Morán 19 0 0 0 0 19
    De León 0 12 0 0 0 12
    Jax 0 11 0 0 0 11
    Thielbar 0 10 0 0 0 10
    Durán 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Stewart 0 0 0 0 0 0
     
     
     

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    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

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    Featured Comments

    47 minutes ago, roger said:

    Agree 100% with what you are saying, Squirrel.  But had they kept Arraez they would be one player closer to the answer.  And a guy getting on base over 40% of the time is a great start to answering the call.

    But no, it doesn't. One guy gets on base and no one can get him home? What's the score? Sorry, we need more than one guy. I get the frustration and being upset over losing Arraez, but, that truly is not the answer, imho. The approach to hitting is off ... that's the fix, not one player we traded.

    5 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

    I am absolutely amazed by the Rays.  How does this team consistently have low payrolls and continue to shine.  They are at 75MM this year compared to the Twins at 156MM.  How does this happen every year?  I thought plucking Rocco from the Rays was going to help but apparently not.

    Maybe our best option for spending money is to buy out the Ray's FO personnel and staff and lower the payroll.  I jest here but there must be something in the water down in Tampa.

    Most people here would hate their practices.  They draft pretty well but the largest portion of their WAR comes from acquiring prospects or players that have reached the ML level but are not proven.  I define this as never having produced 1.5 War prior to being acquired.  

    If we were to follow their practices, we would have the added advantage of spending an extra $70M/year on extending core players and signing free agents.  Many say we can’t draft and develop like them but the difference is not in drafting.  They make Arreaz / Berrios like trades and get great value.  They constantly cycle RPs that have failed elsewhere.  They also indentify and acquire older prospects like Raley / Arozarena and get them to perform.

    Here is a breakdown of their top players by WAR and how they were acquired.  BTW .... TfP signifies Trade for Prospect.

                                           Source       WAR    
     
    Wander Franco Intl 3.2
    Yandy Diaz TfP 2.1
    Randy Arozarena TfP 2.1
    Josh Lowe Draft 1.9
    Luke Raley TfP 1.8
    Jose Siri TfP 1.4
    Isaac Paredes TfP 1.4
    Taylor Walls Draft 0.9
    Harold Ramirez TfP 0.9
    Christian Bethancourt TfP 0.6
    Brandon Lowe Draft 0.6
         
    Shane McClanahan Draft 1.5
    Zach Eflin FA 1.5
    Drew Rasmussen TfP 1.4
    Taj Bradley Draft 1.1
    Jeffrey Springs TfP 0.7
    Kevin Kelly TfP 0.5
         
    Acquired by: WAR % of WAR
    Drafted 6 26.8%
    International Draft 3.2 14.3%
    Trade for Prospect 11.7 52.2%
    Free Agent 1.5 6.7%
    Trade for Proven 0 0.0%
       
       
    7 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

    I would agree with this evaluation ... 

    Also will add  , The twins win the terrible division with good pitching ( whoopi ) but lose in the playoffs  ... 

    Anal lit ics is killing the game of baseball ...

    Our analytics had us trade the leagues leading hitter who has struck out 11 times all year! The Twins alone struck out 12 times last night. Whoever is doing our analytics needs a different career that starts with anal...

    9 hours ago, Dave Overlund said:

    ...The fans are letting their money do the talking..., it's just boring, robotic baseball with little energy. Something has to give. 

    Two thoughts. I will attend my standard 8-10 games, up in the cheap seats. I am interested in ball -- I would be at games in Oakland. Get the picture.

    But you hit it on the nose. "Boring, robotic baseball..."  This team has no persona, no charisma, no pizazz, no character, no soul. If they had IT, there would have been a "players only" (Sonny, put it together) meeting and this weak little brother crap would end.

    The FO just makes too many mistakes.  It could come from the very top that has them get rid of good players before they have to pay them.  Sounds ridiculous I know!

    Berrios was my favorite player in a LONG time,   He plays to win and is devastated by his results last year.  I think he is coming back and will be at least and All Star by next year if not more.  Opinions will vary on that BUT we have yet to see what we got back and not sure we ever will.

    Hicks was traded to make room for Buxton but with his unforeseeable injuries we would have been better with Hicks for a few more seasons (debatable), but we got a great big goose egg back.

    Arraez HUGEST in a long time.  He would affect every game the pitcher we got back even if a #1 Cy Young winner only plays max 2 games a week or 3 games in 2 weeks.  This is going to be another Big Pappi for us.

    Kepler why they keep him is unexplainable  Time to see what they have with Wallner and not just one game, the rest of the season would be fine by me.  

    Lewis almost had a life changing play last week.  I hope he doesn't have long term effects from this.

    Correa:  Did the other 2 teams see something the Twins FO didn't?

    Buxton:  CF or bust!

    Catching, LF, 2nd and 1st are "okay"

     

    1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

    The FO just makes too many mistakes.

      ...

    Hicks was traded to make room for Buxton but with his unforeseeable injuries we would have been better with Hicks for a few more seasons (debatable), but we got a great big goose egg back.

    Glad to see someone finally holding Terry Ryan accountable!

    On 6/7/2023 at 10:09 PM, roger said:

    If Spencer Steer was still with the Twins he would either, A) be playing in St. Paul, or more likely, B) be platooning and hitting .195 average while striking out every third at bat. 

    This is the enigma wrapped inside a riddle, but it just keeps happening....




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