The Table Setter, Jan. 10: Rachel Balkovec, Shota Imanaga, Dylan Cease Make News

Looks like a very reasonable deal for Imanaga. The opt-out after 2 seasons looks like the big draw. Gives him a chance for one more big contract.

Honestly if I'm giving up a huge haul for an SP I want someone better than Cease. Has he been good? Yes. Does he have the potential? Yes. But the reality is his career has been more average than really good.

I agree with Bigfork in that we sign some depth pieces and hope that they come through.

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Honestly if I'm giving up a huge haul for an SP I want someone better than Cease. Has he been good? Yes. Does he have the potential? Yes. But the reality is his career has been more average than really good.

I agree with Bigfork in that we sign some depth pieces and hope that they come through.

Cease is a Cy Young caliber starter.  He has lower HR/9 and higher K/9 than Parle Lopez.  He’s pitched 50 more innings than Lopez in the past 3 years.  The high end of his ERA+ is 180 vs. Lopez 138 (was 117 last year with the Twins).  His low ERA is 2.20 in 184 innings vs. Lopez 3.07 in 102 innings.  Lopez has never broken 3 WAR until last season’s 3.3.  Cease has done it twice; with a high of 6.4, which led the league.

You want someone better than Cease?  There is nobody better that’s available.  Certainly not anybody that’s making less than $10M and under team control through 2025.  This team is willing to shell out zero dollars to anybody right now.  Cease’s FIP last year (3.72) is almost identical to Lopez’s his last year in Miami (3.71).  You can’t just look at his ERA with the hapless White Sox.  Despite his “down” performance last year, he was still 8 RAA (Lopez was 16, and were crowning him best pitcher in history).  Pablo has never broken 20 RAA - Cease was 40 RAA in 2022.  They have an identical career WAR, with Cease having over a full season less of service time.

If they can fine tune Cease pitch mix and tighten up his walk rate here like they did Lopez, he’s the second best starter we’ve had in decades - maybe ever - behind Johan.  He’s an 11-12 K/9 hammer at the front end of the rotation and an annual short lister for the Cy Young.  His ceiling is the ability to put together one of the best starting pitching seasons in modern baseball history.

Lopez is great, and I love him as a pitcher.  But, he’s a rung below Cease in terms of ability, and Cease will be making half the salary Lopez will be through 2025.

I’d give any of our prospects for Cease.  He’s an absolute monster.

Zero chance of it happening, but it would change how I feel about the team right now and the cheap Pohlads throwing a wet blanket on the momentum we built last year.

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Does Cease have more value than Sonny Gray did two years ago? I would say that he definitely does. As a matter of fact, I would think that Cease would have an equal or greater amount of value than López did when the Twins acquired him. 

Cease and Gray aren’t even on the same planet in terms of value.

Cease has one more year of term of control than Lopez did when we acquired him, has better raw stuff, and has shown a higher upside.  He definitely holds more value than Lopez at the time of that acquisition.

4 hours ago, Beast said:

Cease and Gray aren’t even on the same planet in terms of value.

Cease has one more year of term of control than Lopez did when we acquired him, has better raw stuff, and has shown a higher upside.  He definitely holds more value than Lopez at the time of that acquisition.

Would you trade Raya and Lee for Cease? I think I would. Problem is the Sox are asking for much more in their shopping of him.

I do agree, Pohlad's in cost cutting mode right now. They are happy to win the Central,and even that may be a struggle if we don't make an add or two to this current team.

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Would you trade Raya and Lee for Cease? I think I would. Problem is the Sox are asking for much more in their shopping of him.

I do agree, Pohlad's in cost cutting mode right now. They are happy to win the Central,and even that may be a struggle if we don't make an add or two to this current team.

Tough to trade Raya and Lee and maybe the Twins need to add a couple of guys like Yasser Mercedes and Zebby Matthews ..... tough call to make.

if Rachel Balkovec can get players to entrust her, she will succeed.  It is interesting to think about being a strictly analyzing individual.  She may see things others may not.

as long as the locker room banter doesn't break professionalism.  

2 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Would you trade Raya and Lee for Cease? I think I would. Problem is the Sox are asking for much more in their shopping of him.

I do agree, Pohlad's in cost cutting mode right now. They are happy to win the Central,and even that may be a struggle if we don't make an add or two to this current team.

In a heartbeat.

11 hours ago, TNTwinsFan said:

In a heartbeat.

Lee and Rodriquez are a big price to pay, so I would only trade for Cease if they could get him to agree to a longer term contract beyond the current two years of team control. Right now he is a free agent after 2025. Scott Boros is his agent, so that has to be factored in, though the Twins have been able to work with him in recent years. 

On 1/11/2024 at 7:56 AM, Otaknam said:

Lee and Rodriquez are a big price to pay, so I would only trade for Cease if they could get him to agree to a longer term contract beyond the current two years of team control. Right now he is a free agent after 2025. Scott Boros is his agent, so that has to be factored in, though the Twins have been able to work with him in recent years. 

I don't think it'd be hard to get him an extension considering all the talent coming up. The Twins are set up to do well for a while. Adding a guy like Cease to be battery mates with Lopez for 3+ years is a great selling point.

On 1/10/2024 at 1:37 PM, Beast said:

Cease is a Cy Young caliber starter.  He has lower HR/9 and higher K/9 than Parle Lopez.  He’s pitched 50 more innings than Lopez in the past 3 years.  The high end of his ERA+ is 180 vs. Lopez 138 (was 117 last year with the Twins).  His low ERA is 2.20 in 184 innings vs. Lopez 3.07 in 102 innings.  Lopez has never broken 3 WAR until last season’s 3.3.  Cease has done it twice; with a high of 6.4, which led the league.

You want someone better than Cease?  There is nobody better that’s available.  Certainly not anybody that’s making less than $10M and under team control through 2025.  This team is willing to shell out zero dollars to anybody right now.  Cease’s FIP last year (3.72) is almost identical to Lopez’s his last year in Miami (3.71).  You can’t just look at his ERA with the hapless White Sox.  Despite his “down” performance last year, he was still 8 RAA (Lopez was 16, and were crowning him best pitcher in history).  Pablo has never broken 20 RAA - Cease was 40 RAA in 2022.  They have an identical career WAR, with Cease having over a full season less of service time.

If they can fine tune Cease pitch mix and tighten up his walk rate here like they did Lopez, he’s the second best starter we’ve had in decades - maybe ever - behind Johan.  He’s an 11-12 K/9 hammer at the front end of the rotation and an annual short lister for the Cy Young.  His ceiling is the ability to put together one of the best starting pitching seasons in modern baseball history.

Lopez is great, and I love him as a pitcher.  But, he’s a rung below Cease in terms of ability, and Cease will be making half the salary Lopez will be through 2025.

I’d give any of our prospects for Cease.  He’s an absolute monster.

Zero chance of it happening, but it would change how I feel about the team right now and the cheap Pohlads throwing a wet blanket on the momentum we built last year.

 

I concur