Postseason Review: Phil Hughes

It was not just improvement, but a sea change. Hughes started rather slowly in April, not getting his first win until his fourth start and recording a 5.14 ERA for the month. Hughes walked six batters in his first four starts, then proceeded to walk 10 (10!) in his final 28 starts. He was regarded as a pitcher with good control, but nothing like what he put up this season. He kept his team in the game almost every outing. He struck out eight hitters per nine innings while walking .7 per nine, setting a record for the highest K/BB ratio in a single season and leading the league with fewest walks per innings pitched. Hughes' 3.52 ERA was good, but his FIP of 2.65 was much better.

Hughes this week earned Twins Diamond Award hardware as both Pitcher of the Year and MVP. His fine season was arguably the best by a free agent signee this year. Now, as we turn the page to 2015, we all wonder if Hughes can sustain his excellent 2014 campaign. He did set a career high for innings pitched and batters faced, and he's coming off a season when he allowed only .7 homers per nine, about half his mark in New York. Also, Hughes has had strong seasons in even-numbered years. Can he break the jinx and put up good numbers in consecutive seasons?

There are reasons to expect some regression, but also reasons to believe Hughes has "found it". there isn't really another season where he practically walked no one. However, there is hope he will be backed by an improved defensive outfield. I also can't see Hughes continuing to suppress home runs as well as he did in 2014. It does make sense that Hughes would perform closer to his FIP and perhaps allow a lower number of hits per inning pitched. Hughes' ability to "pound the strike zone" seems ingrained in his approach and has, no doubt, been effective for him.

Hughes was regarded as an extreme fly ball pitcher and indeed he has allowed many balls to be put in the air. His air out percentage is one of the higher ones in the league, but it has worked for him.

With all the failures of pitchers brought in to the Twins, Hughes was both a pleasant surprise and an advertisement that finding the right free agent is possible. Any thought of contending revolves around him backing up last year's success with another strong season.