Moneyball Redux: Will Red Sox Raid Twins' Front Office?

And Gonzalez.  They also signed Pineda and acquired Odorizzi, Romo, and Dyson.  They have developed Kepler, Garver, Polanco, Arraez, Rogers, and Duffey to much more than anyone thought they would be when the calendar flipped to 2017, while overseeing the reclamation of Buxton and Sano.  They've done some stupid things, but have also hit plenty of homeruns.  Let's be careful about associating every bad part of this season as solely Falvine's fault.

We aren't really giving them credit for two time minor league hitter of the year (Garver) or developing Polanco, Arraez or Kepler are we. We could give them credit for lineup placement or even playing them but developing them?

Yes they acquired Pineda for 146 innings and was suspended for PED's. Dyson (who I wanted) has been hurt and has an ERA over 7.00, Romo has been good but also has an ERA higher than May.

They can IMO be given credit for Duffey and Littell, but lets not forget about Parker, Romero, and a host of others that haven't gone so well.

No, they didn't inherit a good young team.  They inherited a team that had just lost 100 games, and through some great signings, a couple of shrewd trades.

True they didn't inherit a good your team, they inherited a young team (organization) with a ton of talent.

They minimally surround that talent with some good signings and a some good trades.

They have also did a great job of keeping the minor leagues filled with talent.

And I agree if you do or don't give them credit for improvement you can't or shouldn't blame them for failures.

We aren't really giving them credit for two time minor league hitter of the year (Garver) or developing Polanco, Arraez or Kepler are we. We could give them credit for lineup placement or even playing them but developing them?

Yes they acquired Pineda for 146 innings and was suspended for PED's. Dyson (who I wanted) has been hurt and has an ERA over 7.00, Romo has been good but also has an ERA higher than May.

They can IMO be given credit for Duffey and Littell, but lets not forget about Parker, Romero, and a host of others that haven't gone so well.

This goes back to my point above--why wouldn't they get credit for those guys developing?  It happened while they were 100% in charge of the baseball operations of this franchise.  If you're going to not give them credit for Garver, Polanco, Kepler, or Arraez because you think that credit goes to the player, then in order to be intellectually honest, you can't blame them for Parker, Romero, or any of the others, since that would also go to the player.

Pineda's suspension is 0% on Falvine, since Pineda himself said he took the substance without consulting the Twins.  Dyson had a 2.47 ERA and 2.72 FIP on the year when the Twins acquired him, when not even the Giants knew he was hurt--Falvine are now supposed to be clairvoyant, and know about injuries players have deliberately hidden when there is absolutely no sign of them?

Romo's ERA with the Twins is 3.5, compared to May's 3.04--hardly a huge disparity given the SSS of relievers.  In fact, if Romo's next two outings are scoreless, his Twins ERA drops to 3.15; if May gives up one run in his next outing, his ERA rises to 3.14.  In other words, its hardly far-fetched to say that after Sunday's game, Romo and May will have essentially identical ERA's.

True they didn't inherit a good your team, they inherited a young team (organization) with a ton of talent.

They minimally surround that talent with some good signings and a some good trades.

They have also did a great job of keeping the minor leagues filled with talent.

And I agree if you do or don't give them credit for improvement you can't or shouldn't blame them for failures.

Jake Ododrizzi is 21st for starters in all of baseball in WAR this year, after being 30th last year (22nd for both years combined).

Nelson Cruz is 6th in all of baseball for wRC+.

Marwin Gonzalez has been a key piece to lineup flexibility and giving players breaks, while being 10th on the team in WAR (ahead of Eddie Rosario)

Michael Pineda has been worth 2.7 WAR this year (38th in baseball)

Martin Perez has been worth 1.8 WAR this year (55th in baseball)

Sergio Romo has thrown 18 innings of 3.50 ERA relief, and stabilized a bullpen that is a top 10 unit since he was acquired

Zack Littell, Devin Smeltzer, Jake Cave, and Randy Dobnak all look like they will be significant pieces moving forward, and this all excludes Castro and Schoop (3.6 WAR between them), and Harper (0.9 WAR).

So this year, 60% of the rotation, somewhere around 40% of the lineup, and about 25% of the bullpen were brought in by this front office (If everyone is healthy and not suspended, I count 11 players that would be on the Twins Playoff Roster--Odo, Pineda, Perez, Romo, Dyson, Littell, Cruz, Cron, Castro, Schoop, and Gonzalez).  That's minimal to you?

Number of playoff games Falvey has won with the Twins = 0. Let's pump the brakes a bit.

LOL.  Yeah, I'm thinking Falvey chokes when there's a big game.

At this point this FO personnel is only interesting after everyone in Houston has already told you no.

Win a playoff series and then maybe they gain some value. At this point they've done nothing but talk about winning when you look at real results a big name is going to look for.

Falvey and Levine have been in their positions with the Twins for less than three years. The way to judge their performance so far is not by the number of postseason games won. That would be the height of silliness. Not far behind that in silliness would be to judge them by the makeup of their third-string outfield or to judge them by trade-deadline transactions made in their one and only opportunity when in the position of a probable postseason contender.

Three years is a short time when it comes to establishing a baseball operation. The goal here is to have an organization that can support a major league team capable of contending for the postseason every year. That takes top-notch scouting and player development. They appear to have made strides in this regard. Let's see how things are in another three or four years.

There is wayyyyy to much unfair criticism on this site. The Lord would say "Child, count your blessings." 

There is wayyyyy to much unfair criticism on this site. The Lord would say "Child, count your blessings."

Yea but the Lord isn’t a Twins fan

This goes back to my point above--why wouldn't they get credit for those guys developing?  It happened while they were 100% in charge of the baseball operations of this franchise.  If you're going to not give them credit for Garver, Polanco, Kepler, or Arraez because you think that credit goes to the player, then in order to be intellectually honest, you can't blame them for Parker, Romero, or any of the others, since that would also go to the player.

 

Pineda's suspension is 0% on Falvine, since Pineda himself said he took the substance without consulting the Twins.  Dyson had a 2.47 ERA and 2.72 FIP on the year when the Twins acquired him, when not even the Giants knew he was hurt--Falvine are now supposed to be clairvoyant, and know about injuries players have deliberately hidden when there is absolutely no sign of them?

 

Romo's ERA with the Twins is 3.5, compared to May's 3.04--hardly a huge disparity given the SSS of relievers.  In fact, if Romo's next two outings are scoreless, his Twins ERA drops to 3.15; if May gives up one run in his next outing, his ERA rises to 3.14.  In other words, its hardly far-fetched to say that after Sunday's game, Romo and May will have essentially identical ERA's.

I was trying to be fair to the front office giving them credit for the guys they brought in and for putting guys they inherited into potions to succeed.

They brought in the guys you mentioned that have done well.

But don't forget they brought in Morrison, Lynn, Reed, Belisle, Kinley, Austin, and others.

Also if you want to give them credit for players doing better, don't you have to give them credit for players that haven't done better, or the implosion of the starting pitchers in the second half?

Finally you asked - "That's minimal to you?"

and my answer is absolutely, IMO besides Cruz and Gonzalez that is the definition of minimal.

I love what they have done with Littell (and they should be given tons of credit for getting him and moving him to the pen), I really liked getting Dyson and Romo (both guys I think they should have gotten weeks earlier even if it meant paying more) but when you have one of the greatest offensives ever in the game they needed to shore up the starting pitching. As of right now it looks like Berrios game 1 and bullpen games for the next 3 or 4 starts. (sure Odorizzi will probably start game 2, but if they or anybody are expecting more than 5 innings will that is terrible planning)

Does anybody feel comfortable with Gibson or Perez starting against a good lineup right now?

Doesn't Falvey have 2 more years on his contract with the Twins? 

I'm not sure taking the job is going to be his decision.  The Twins would have to agree to let him interview and I'm assuming they would not let him go unless they get compensation.

Are you talking about pitching? Because the Twins rank 3rd in MLB in pitching WAR, 4th in FIP, 6th in K/BB, 8th in ERA, etc. That's a complete turnaround by any definition for a staff that consistently ranked at the bottom of the league in almost every category for six straight years before Falvine arrived. 

Are we going to lump their April/May performance in with the rest of the season and pretend it's indicative of where they're at right now? They outperformed those two months. Martin Perez and Jake Odorizzi aren't those pitchers, and they aren't producing near that peak. The bullpen benefitted greatly from starters going deep into games and lots of days off early in the year; since then they've been exposed. They were able to hide and protect guys in the pen and I'm glad they were, because the Ws they banked are the difference between winning the division and playing in the wild card. How many solid bullpens could drop their 8th inning setup man and watch him go unclaimed? Parker still ranks 8th amongst all Twins pitchers for WAR, and hilariously he shares that spot with both Gibson and Perez. 

Look at the 1st and 2nd half splits. The staff ERA rose over a full run from May through August. They're league average in the 2nd half in terms of OPS+, and that's with the benefit of pitching in easily the worst division in baseball, and in the AL where nearly half the teams have a shot at losing 90 or more games. The disparity between playoff teams and non-contenders is vast. If the Twins rank near or at league average it tells me what I already know, they've got an offense that will carry them and a staff that's good enough to weather a poor division but won't stack up come October. If that was goal then mission accomplished I guess, but in 3+ years I was hoping for more significant change, especially when this FO was handed this core group of position players.