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The contract makes sense from both sides. Dozier gets $20 million up front, as opposed to having to work on year-to-year agreements over the next four years. He also gets a significant bump in salary this year.
The Twins take on the risk of Dozier, who had a breakthrough season last year, severely regressing or getting injured. In return, they should see overall savings in future years compared to what Dozier would have received in arbitration over the next four years if he continues to play at a fairly high level.
Dozier's .242 batting average last year disguised an outstanding year. His patience at the plate led to a .345 on-base percentage and he powered out 23 home runs, all while playing a middle infield position at an above-average level. His OPS last year was fourth among qualified MLB second baseman, above that of better known names liks Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia. He's certainly shown no sign of regression this spring, as he is hitting .462.
The contract pays him $2 million dollars this year (as opposed to $590,000) and then $3M, $6M and $9M in his three years of arbitration. It is an inexact science to estimate exactly what future arbitration awards would have been, but for any starting player, those values are on the low end. And for player who is an all-star, they could be very low.
For instance, Pirates second baseman Neil Walker, who had similar production to that of Dozier last year, is making $8M in his second year of arbitration - and he lost his case. compare that to the $6M that Dozier is now guaranteed. Correction: Walker's 3rd year of arbitration wa $8M, but it still compares to Dozier's 2nd year of arbitration, because both are in their fifth year of service time. Walker was a Super-2 player, so he was able to reach arbitration a year earlier.
Plus, the average arbitration awards tend to go up from year to year because they reflect the free agent salaries at the high end, and those values are also increasing significantly under the new collective bargaining agreement.
The trick with a lot of these contracts, and particularly with this one, is how long the deal should be. Dozier's case is a little unique in that he is old for a player entering his 3rd year; he's 27 years old. That means he won't become a free agent until he is 31 years old, which is often on the downside of a player's career. So it is of questionable value to guarantee money out that far. Often when a team signs a deal like this, it is to guarantee that they buy out a free agent year or two for a player who will hit free agency in their 20s.
This deal ignores that option and strikes a different balance. It runs exactly the same time frame at whcih the player would have been under team control, but it gives enough potential future savings to take on the risk of guaranteeing the money. As with any deal, both sides probably wish it were a little different. Dozier's side likely wishes it was for more money or had another guaranteed year. The Twins side likely wishes they would have made it for a little less money, or had a team option when Dozier reaches free agency. But it looks like a solid, thoughtful agreement for both sides.
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