Matt Wallner Is Finally Finding Himself at Triple-A

Coming off a breakthrough rookie season, Matt Wallner struggled mightily throughout spring training, but it was mostly shrugged off by him and his coaches. The sample is small and the games don't matter, was the refrain more or less. Once the games did start mattering and Wallner's bat failed to start battering, the vibe quickly changed. Just 13 games into his season, with a .080/.273/.240 slash line and 17-to-3 K/BB ratio in 33 plate appearances, the Twins decided to send Wallner down. 

The hope was that a trip to St. Paul would help Wallner get right in a hurry. Instead, it merely verified that his plate approach was truly broken. Playing at a level where he crushed in both 2022 and 2023, Wallner looked totally lost in his first couple weeks with the Saints, slashing .152/.204/.261 with 21 strikeouts in three walks through his first 11 games and 49 plate appearances. Almost identical to his numbers in the majors. In early May he went through a bit of a power streak, but the indicators of plate discipline were still pretty alarming: 33 strikeouts and four walks through 20 games at Triple-A; a 37% K-rate and 4% BB rate. He just wasn't going to sustainably succeed the way. No one can.

On May 12th, Wallner did something he hadn't all year: he drew two walks in a game. It was a notable development from a player who had drawn seven total free passes through 33 games. Then he drew two walks again three games later. And again two games after that. Since that date, May 12th, Wallner has a 36-to-20 K/BB ratio that looks radically different from what we saw in the first seven weeks of the season. 

In 19 games during that span (entering play Friday) Wallner has a palatable 29% K-rate and an excellent 16% BB-rate. He's slashing .214/.341/.505 for an .846 OPS that is very strong despite being suppressed by a .230 BABIP. If we zoom into a more recent sample, the numbers are even more impressive: in his past 15 games, Wallner is batting .316 with a 1.126 OPS, eight homers and 17 RBIs. In 66 plate appearances: 15 strikeouts (23%) and eight walks (12%). 

Seeing Wallner launching home runs all over the place -- most recently he crushed two as part of a four-hit night in St. Paul's 18-run barrage against Louisville on Thursday -- is obviously great. But it's not necessarily all that telling. He's always going to be able to obliterate the baseball when he gets a hold of it. Putting forth better plate appearances and getting himself in position to get pitches he can wallop (or spitting on those he can't) is the key for Wallner. Now he's finally doing those things, in convincing fashion.

Wallner's eventual turnaround in Triple-A offers hope for Edouard Julien, who is going through a similar spell of initial struggles following his demotion, as well as Alex Kirilloff, who's now joined the two in the minors. Of course, it won't matter unless Wallner can channel the newfound confidence back into major-league success, and you wonder how long it will take for him to get that chance.

The front office chose Austin Martin as the call-up instead of Wallner when they sent down Kirilloff earlier this week, which surprised me somewhat given the need for another quality left-handed bat. But with that need in mind, Wallner's return can't be too far off. We can officially and unequivocally say at this point he's earned it.

What are your thoughts? Would you be looking for a way to get Wallner back up into the Twins lineup quickly, or would you keep him in the minors until an opportunity naturally arises?