Make a Valiant Effort to Avoid Shortsightedness

Entering the 2023 MLB season, a peculiar mixture of cautious optimism and impenetrable angst overhung the Twins. Carlos Correa was signed long-term, but his ankle could give out. Frontline starting pitcher Pablo López was acquired, but the team had to part ways with the beloved Luis Arráez to do so. The team had a respectable first half of the 2022 season, but the wheels fell off after the All-Star break, and they missed the postseason. Fans wanted to give themselves to the Twins, but, as with all professional Minnesota sports teams, empirical rationality wouldn't let them. 

Fast-forward to the following offseason, and the mood is vexingly similar, despite the organization winning their first playoff game since 2004. Much of the frustration surrounding the team is due to ownership imposing significant, unnecessary payroll cuts in response to not having a regional broadcasting deal. The Pohlad family had the opportunity to strike the iron while it was hot and allow the front office to fortify an already formidable roster, yet they are electing to wallow in self-inflicted paralysis in the name of saving tens of millions of dollars in the short term.

The way Twins ownership is choosing to act is disheartening. It should be criticized, but that doesn't mean those who follow the team need to take a broadly pessimistic approach to a group that just provided fans the best moment this franchise has enjoyed since defeating the "Moneyball" A's in 2002. Suffering because of a sports team is a quintessentially Minnesotan behavior, but wouldn't it be nice to defy that stereotype?

Over the past three seasons, the Twins' payroll has steadily increased, despite continually placing between 16th and 18th in MLB:

• 2021: $125.27 million (16 of 30)
• 2022: $134.40 million (18 of 30)
• 2023: $153.71 million (17 of 30)

Twins ownership's choice to steadily increase payroll five out of the last six offseasons (2020 notwithstanding) has allowed the organization to become one of the two consistently contending teams in the lowly AL Central, alongside the Cleveland Guardians. Though the team has voluntarily regressed to their 2021 salary numbers, that doesn't mean the on-field product will be subject to the same backward trend. 

After ending the 18-game playoff losing streak and winning their first postseason series since 2002, the second-most significant highlight of the Twins' 2023 season was the unexpected youth movement headlined by three rookie position players: Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Matt Wallner. This triumvirate, which generated 155 (Lewis), 136 (Julien), and 144 (Wallner) wRC+ marks over 901 combined plate appearances in 2023, is set to make an estimated $2.22 million in 2024. Beyond these three young core pieces of the franchise, other key contributors are estimated to be above-average players at owner-friendly rates as well:

• Joe Ryan: $740,000
• Bailey Ober: $740,000
• Louie Varland: $740,000
• Jhoan Duran: $740,000
• Griffin Jax: $740,000
• Brock Stewart: $740,000
• Kody Funderburk: $740,000
• Ryan Jeffers: $2,425,000
• Alex Kirilloff: $1,350,000

The 12 core contributors noted are expected to make $11,175,000 in 2024. This is also commonly referred to as "$175,000 more than what Joey Gallo made in 2023." To further illustrate how much of a bargain these players are for the World Series-hopeful Twins, the 12 of them (only one of whom will be over 30 years old in 2024) are projected to generate a combined 18.2 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) in 2024. Mixing this assortment of young, cost-effective talent with a veteran core of López, Correa, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, and Max Kepler, the Twins have 17 of their 26-man roster filled and are expected to manufacture 32.9 fWAR at the price of $88,401,190 in 2024.

President of baseball operations Derek Falvey and the Twins front office have done an admirable job constructing a balanced, winning roster for less than $100 million in total. Though the team's decision-makers' ability to assemble a roster that is projected to still win the AL Central despite abruptly being forced to cut payroll is honorable, it doesn't absolve the owners of their short-sightedness.

Luckily, the Twins don't have any dire areas of need to address this offseason, but there are various moves the organization ought to explore making before entering the 2024 season. The list of additions the Twins need to consider includes:

• A frontline or back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher
• A mid- to high-leverage reliever
• An adequate center field insurance policy for the oft-injured Buxton
• A right-handed batter who could play first base, both corner outfield spots, and hit for power

In a typical offseason, these areas of need could be adequately addressed for roughly $25-30 million, hypothetically increasing the Twins' payroll for 2024. If the Twins were receiving the roughly $60 million they were getting from Bally Sports North, how the front office addressed these needs could have been much different. The Twins could have offered Marcus Stroman a contract worth more than the two years and $37 million the New York Yankees gave him. The team could have offered Kevin Kiermaier more than the $10.5 million the Toronto Blue Jays gave him for one season. Instead, they will likely fill the roles these reliable veterans could have occupied with unproven commodities like Varland and Willi Castro.

Frustration will remain prevalent, but it is crucial not to lose sight of the advantageous situation the Twins find themselves in. Whether a franchise resides in a large market with an owner (or ownership group) who is willing to splurge on free agents and trade targets (i.e., the Los Angeles Dodgers) or exists in a small market with a frugal owner (i.e., the Tampa Bay Rays), the most successful teams garner long-term success through signing international free agents and drafting and developing players in a sustainably successful manner. The Twins, who live in the middle section of that spectrum, sign, draft, and develop at a sustainably successful rate, which drives their success. 

It is reasonable to be upset at Twins ownership for not allowing the front office the luxury to spend on free agents the likes of Stroman or Kiermaier (who could help the team take the next step toward their World Series aspirations), but the organization still has one of the most robust foundations in the league. This type of talent base allows for short- and long-term success. Though fans shouldn't have to endure this form of disappointment, it is vital not to lose sight of the bigger picture, something ownership has done by shortsightedly cutting payroll.

Does this unfortunate reality give you a greater appreciation of the team's front office and player development department? How are you balancing excitement about the team with anger at the owners? Join the discussion and comment below.