The Jorge Polanco Trade Fails the Simplest of Tests

5 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

I'm not judging their ability to hit LHP off of 100-150 PA sample sizes of last year. For their careers, Farmer has a 100 point OPS lead on Polanco. A strong platoon with Farmer facing LHP and Julien facing RHP is all but guaranteed to outproduce Polanco because of the platoon advantage. Do you think it's unreasonable to be comfortable platooning Kyle Farmer? Who said Polanco will "fall off a cliff"? I don't think it's unreasonable to look at his recent injury history and coinciding drop in production and feel comfortable saying that Julien, who is already a better hitter, has a pretty good chance to be more productive.

I meant PA and typed AB, my bad.

Edouard Julien spent close to 2 months in the minors last season and they didn't give him regular playing time in the first half. He had 487 PA against RHP across both levels. FWIW, 23 players in the league faced >500 PAs against RHP, Mookie did it in 140 games.

The Twins had 1 player clear 500 PAs because the vets were largely injured (including Polanco fyi) and they didn't give the young guns regular playing time until June/July. 

The team lost little to no production at 2B, gained a 7th/8th inning setup arm, and will assuredly need some innings in the #6 rotation spot from an 4-5 ERA starter - which is a lot better than most teams get from that position. If you think that's "the hottest of takes" I'd love to hear you explain why they will be *so* much worse after the trade. 

It's guaranteed? Polanco was better vs. LHP in 2021, and the two have basically rotated who was better vs. LHP each year since Farmer starting playing regularly. I definitly don't think it's a given that 34 year old Kyle Farmer outproduces Polanco vs. LHP, in which case the platoon becomes more of an issue. Do I think it's unreasonable to favor the Farmer/Julien platoon? No. Do I believe that last season was Julien's floor and Kyle Farmer posts a .800+ OPS vs. LHP? Also, no. 

23 player is less than one per club. You're making my point for me here. 

No, the Twins (and most teams) didn't have a large number of guys reach 500 PAs because 1) injuries occur 2) baseball is matchup dependent, and most players aren't matchup-proof.

Why are they worse? Is that really a question? They moved a top of the lineup bat for a prospect and/or a RP. For me it's that simple.

I don't want a .500 ERA #6 spot. I don't see that as "depth," or some sort of W. If the Twins are trotting out a 34 year old on a 1 year deal with a .500 ERA every 5th start I'll be incredibly annoyed, and honestly everybody else should be too. Louie Varland can probably give you a .500 ERA, or at least something close. That's not impressive, but at minimum Varland has some upside, at least until he shows he doesn't. The entire point is that if you're going to bump him from the rotation (and maybe that isn't the plan) then it should be a move that reshuffles most, if not nearly all, of the rotation. 

On 1/30/2024 at 1:20 PM, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

So who realistically do the Twins get that you would be happy with?   It takes 2 to tango.   

I think the Pablo trade,  negates most of the concerns you have.  We found our #1 pitcher,  the hardest thing to find.  I am willing to give the team a chance to find its #2 and it may already be on the team.   

Thanks, Hawkeye. MIA has (LHP) Luzardo that they are actively putting out there for trades. MIA wants a catcher, SS & move Arraez's contract that they can't afford. Luzardo is a potential ace (maybe more so than Lopez) who fits very well alongside fellow Venezuelan & friend Lopez. MIL has a need at 2B, they love Arraez and they have Adames (SS) they could move. We could have traded our over-stretched 2Bman Julien who doesn't have range or can turn a smooth DP & Jeffers who swoons when given sole primary catching duties & doesn't have an arm, both are at peak trade value. We trade both straight up for Luzardo. I'd then pick a high MLB-ready catching prospect which are a few, but my favorite is Romo (CO)

Luzardo is a type of pitcher that can elevate the rest of the rotation. Every great performance would challenge the next SP to do better. Alas w/o our best 2Bman & having only Julien as our sole 2Bman we cannot trade him.

5 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

It's guaranteed? Polanco was better vs. LHP in 2021, and the two have basically rotated who was better vs. LHP each year since Farmer starting playing regularly. I definitly don't think it's a given that 34 year old Kyle Farmer outproduces Polanco vs. LHP, in which case the platoon becomes more of an issue. Do I think it's unreasonable to favor the Farmer/Julien platoon? No. Do I believe that last season was Julien's floor and Kyle Farmer posts a .800+ OPS vs. LHP? Also, no. 

23 player is less than one per club. You're making my point for me here. 

No, the Twins (and most teams) didn't have a large number of guys reach 500 PAs because 1) injuries occur 2) baseball is matchup dependent, and most players aren't matchup-proof.

Why are they worse? Is that really a question? They moved a top of the lineup bat for a prospect and/or a RP. For me it's that simple.

I don't want a .500 ERA #6 spot. I don't see that as "depth," or some sort of W. If the Twins are trotting out a 34 year old on a 1 year deal with a .500 ERA every 5th start I'll be incredibly annoyed, and honestly everybody else should be too. Louie Varland can probably give you a .500 ERA, or at least something close. That's not impressive, but at minimum Varland has some upside, at least until he shows he doesn't. The entire point is that if you're going to bump him from the rotation (and maybe that isn't the plan) then it should be a move that reshuffles most, if not nearly all, of the rotation. 

It’s not this simple.  Have you not read any of the articles both before and after the trade that outlined the numerous aspects of why Polanco should be traded and why this was a good trade for the Twins?  Are you ignoring all these things that have been written or are you assuming that all of these media people and the FO lack your understanding of the situation?  

To your other point about platooning Farmer and Julien, that platoon does not take up a roster like some platoons would.  Farmer is there to back-up multiple IF positions.  He would be on the roster in that role regardless.  The fact that he hits LHP very well allows for an expanded role which includes platooning.  Again, just not as simple as you want to believe. 
 

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thanks, Hawkeye. MIA has (LHP) Luzardo that they are actively putting out there for trades. MIA wants a catcher, SS & move Arraez's contract that they can't afford. Luzardo is a potential ace (maybe more so than Lopez) who fits very well alongside fellow Venezuelan & friend Lopez. MIL has a need at 2B, they love Arraez and they have Adames (SS) they could move. We could have traded our over-stretched 2Bman Julien who doesn't have range or can turn a smooth DP & Jeffers who swoons when given sole primary catching duties & doesn't have an arm, both are at peak trade value. We trade both straight up for Luzardo. I'd then pick a high MLB-ready catching prospect which are a few, but my favorite is Romo (CO)

Luzardo is a type of pitcher that can elevate the rest of the rotation. Every great performance would challenge the next SP to do better. Alas w/o our best 2Bman & having only Julien as our sole 2Bman we cannot trade him.

It is always at what cost Doctor Gast.  We have checked in on all the major pitchers,  and all the teams are asking way too much.  Are you comfortable going a Lee and Lewis for Luzardo, Cease, or Burnes.  We are currently in a Mahle situation.  Honestly the idea of the trade was great, the cost was sky high.  We should have only had to give up one of the bats.  You can't control health, but you can control what you give up.   Giving those assets away in trade precludes you from using them as a player or in another trade so I don't prefer to overpay.  

As to second baseman you have a damn fine SS, 2nd baseman in the minors named Lee that could either be traded or fill in for Julien if thats your cup of tea.   

I think most fans will be pleasantly surprised with Desclafani.   I think I will performer closer to his 2021 numbers than 2023.  

The November payroll budgets on Twins Daily began at a suggested high of $170 million, moved to $150 million, and then $135 million. The Twins openly suggested a reduction in payroll was due hinting via Dan Hayes and others at a vague range of $125-140 million. The numbers have always been unsure but seem to be settling in the $115-125 million range. The term often used was "self-imposed" regarding payroll, which bothers some people, but every payroll actually is just that. This is my first time using the term. Fun.

The notion of trading Polanco, Kepler, Farmer, and maybe Vazquez was raised early, often, and consistently all through this offseason. I can't think of a single person on Twins Daily who was adamently opposed to any trades. People hoped for improvements to the team, most often pointing to a TOR arm. The Twins actually stated not too long ago that they were looking for an MLB for MLB player trade that filled the specific needs that had been identified by each team. Numerous articles and comments all offseason expected Polanco and others to be traded. The outstanding need for the Twins was a pitcher to slot in above or just behind Pablo Lopez. A number of suggestions were made that perhaps a relief pitcher like Abreu (Houston) would suffice. Most people accepted that a player would be moved for a distinct positive improvement to the team. We knew way last October that a number of teams had interest in Polanco and Kepler. There were unknown conversations that took place all during the offseason. 

It appears that the Twins had a "self-imposed" deadline near the beginning of February to complete a trade to their already known desire to reduce payroll. This further tied the hands of the Twins in any negotiations in potential deals. We will never know what might have transpired if the Twins had shown a little patience for a couple more months. However, when a team has apparent  known restrictions it clearly would hinder their actions. The "self-imposed" payroll may not have hurt transaction possibilities as much as the "self-imposed" deadline. 

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

It is always at what cost Doctor Gast.  We have checked in on all the major pitchers,  and all the teams are asking way too much.  Are you comfortable going a Lee and Lewis for Luzardo, Cease, or Burnes.  We are currently in a Mahle situation.  Honestly the ide of the trade was great, the cost was sky high.  We should have only had to give up one of the bats.  You can't control health, but you can control what you give up.   Given those assets away in trade precludes you from using them as a player or in another trade so I don't prefer to overpay.  

As to second baseman you have a damn fine SS, 2nd baseman in the minors named Lee that could either be traded or fill in for Julien if thats your cup of tea.   

Of course, there's a cost for a premium SP. Luzardo is the best out there & I gave the 2 that I'm fine to let go that fit MIA's needs & requirements. IMO Lee is our top prospect, and there's no rush to bring Lee up & I think it's to everyone's advantage if we wait to bring him up, that's why I'd like to hold onto Polanco a little longer. 

I'm much more hesitant to put Lee on the block. Trading Lee will downgrade our INF for the next 6+ years & Lee + Jeffers is an overpay for Luzardo. I'd probably turn it down & lower my standard to Rogers or Cabrera for Jeffers. 

Mahle was a deadline trade, they tend not to turn out well

Quote

I think most fans will be pleasantly surprised with Desclafani.   I think I will performer closer to his 2021 numbers than 2023.  

That's what they said about Happ & Shoemaker, Desclafani reminds me of Shoemaker.

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Of course, there's a cost for a premium SP. Luzardo is the best out there & I gave the 2 that I'm fine to let go that fit MIA's needs & requirements. IMO Lee is our top prospect, and there's no rush to bring Lee up & I think it's to everyone's advantage if we wait to bring him up, that's why I'd like to hold onto Polanco a little longer. 

I'm much more hesitant to put Lee on the block. Trading Lee will downgrade our INF for the next 6+ years & Lee + Jeffers is an overpay for Luzardo. I'd probably turn it down & lower my standard to Rogers or Cabrera for Jeffers. 

Mahle was a deadline trade, they tend not to turn out well

That's what they said about Happ & Shoemaker, Desclafani reminds me of Shoemaker.

As to who you put on the trade block I understand.  I like Julien better than Lee but thats a personal opinion.  

As to Desclafani,  he had a better 2 month stretch last year than anything Shoemaker did in the 2 years prior.  

22 hours ago, ashbury said:

From 2019-2021 he was rock solid.  But after that, there have been multiple IL trips:

June 2022: lower back tightness

September 2022: left knee inflammation

April 2023: left knee inflammation

May 2023: left hamstring

June 2023: left hamstring

It's the repeated nature of the injuries that worry me.  It's not like a series of random injuries, such as a broken toe or finger from a wild pitch.  Having the knee flare up a second time after presumably an off-season of rest qualifies as potentially "chronic".  And I'd prefer to see a hamstring pull not recur shortly after coming off the IL.

Is he broken down?  I would not say so.  But he turns 31 this season.  This kind of injury history is something that fits an unfortunate pattern at his age.  Perhaps Seattle will get a full season from him like he could deliver when he was 27.

 

My point has been most of his problems are related to continuously playing him hurt which never gets a chance to heal & quite often aggravates something else. His back injury they took seriously & gave him some time off & he bounced back very quickly & never had any more problems with his back. But his knee injury they never took seriously & ran him to the ground. I hope to God that this abuse on his knees would not result into something chronic. Even if it is, it's not on him & it can be managed

5 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

If you just want to put words in my mouth and assume everything will go as poorly as possible for the Twins, that's your prerogative, but it's pretty far from any kind of analysis worth taking seriously.

Every team in the league trots out a 4.5-5 ERA guy for a chunk of starts each season because injuries are guaranteed and no team can stockpile enough quality starting pitching to avoid it. Those types of pitchers get 8-10 million dollars on the free agent market. All I wish sometimes is that Twins fans could have even a smidgen of league-wide perspective. 

Polanco would maybe bat 5th or 6th on the Twins, and I don't think that's a good faith read on the trade. We'll agree to disagree. 

"A strong platoon with Farmer vs. LHP and Julien vs. LHP is all but guaranteed to outproduce Polanco." What words am I putting in your mouth? Worst case scenario? C'mon....You don't have to take what I'm saying seriously, but if your response is to stick your fingers in your ears, I'd refrain from dumping on anybody else's argument. 

League wide perspective is exactly why I prefer Varland over DeSclafani. Give me the younger guy, with some actual upside, instead of the semi washed vet whose ceiling is fringe backend guy. This isn't tough to understand. If you're going to trot out a .500 ERA every 5th day, have it be somebody that maybe takes some steps forward and contributes beyond this year.  DeSclafani is either moved, in the opening day rotation, or in the pen. I think options 1 and 2 are far more likely. If you want to argue that he won't bump Varland go ahead, we'll just disagree. Two teams are paying DeSclafani to not be on their roster. Idk if other clubs were lining up to throw $10M at him. 

You realize he was hitting 2 hole for them in the postseason right? But "bad faith," huh?....

8 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

It’s not this simple.  Have you not read any of the articles both before and after the trade that outlined the numerous aspects of why Polanco should be traded and why this was a good trade for the Twins?  Are you ignoring all these things that have been written or are you assuming that all of these media people and the FO lack your understanding of the situation?  

To your other point about platooning Farmer and Julien, that platoon does not take up a roster like some platoons would.  Farmer is there to back-up multiple IF positions.  He would be on the roster in that role regardless.  The fact that he hits LHP very well allows for an expanded role which includes platooning.  Again, just not as simple as you want to believe. 
 

Yes, we all get it, you're an organizational sycophant who loves to argue from authority and anybody who disagrees with said authority is a dumb***. 

Riverbrian did a nice job of laying out the issues with platooning earlier in the thread. Go back and read it. 

30 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Yes, we all get it, you're an organizational sycophant who loves to argue from authority and anybody who disagrees with said authority is a dumb***. 

Riverbrian did a nice job of laying out the issues with platooning earlier in the thread. Go back and read it. 

Very odd response given I did not offer a personal opinion.  I asked if you had read any of the numerous articles from well-known outlets which contradicted your position.  Are they dumb.  There are only two possibilities. One is that our FO and all of these baseball writers are clueless.  The other is that you have an understanding superior to all of them.  I guess that's basically the same thing so there is only one possibility.   How is it possible you don't have a GM job.

44 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Very odd response given I did not offer a personal opinion.  I asked if you had read any of the numerous articles from well-known outlets which contradicted your position.  Are they dumb.  There are only two possibilities. One is that our FO and all of these baseball writers are clueless.  The other is that you have an understanding superior to all of them.  I guess that's basically the same thing so there is only one possibility.   How is it possible you don't have a GM job.

So we're going to pretend you didn't imply that a lack of support for the move equates to a lack of understanding? Gotcha. An odd response indeed....

Lol thank you for hammering home my point. 

15 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

So we're going to pretend you didn't imply that a lack of support for the move equates to a lack of understanding? Gotcha. An odd response indeed....

Lol thank you for hammering home my point. 

I did not imply anything.  I said straight up that your lack of support puts you squarely in opposition with ESPN / Fangraphs and others who have scrutinized this trade.  Therefore, given the divergence in your opinion, the only possibility is that either you or all of the sources that wrote about the trade must lack understanding.  One side has to be wrong where the opinions differ so greatly. 

15 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

League wide perspective is exactly why I prefer Varland over DeSclafani. Give me the younger guy, with some actual upside, instead of the semi washed vet whose ceiling is fringe backend guy.

We had these same sorts of comments last year and it was obvious we would get a repeat this year. It is indisputable that you need well more than 5 starters to get through an MLB season. If Louie is in the rotation to start the year then there is absolutely no proven depth behind him. It could be argued that Louie is unproven too. People seem to get all worked up when we have a MLB caliber starter waiting in St Paul "wasting his bullets". Would you prefer to return to the days when we had 2 or 3 mediocre MLB starters in place and had to sign replacement level starters to fill out the rotation? Having a guy like Louie in St Paul is a good thing. It is an indication of depth. You can argue that T Disco isn't as good as Louie, but Louie has options. It's as simple as that. In spite of all the hand wringing last year Ober made 25 starts and it all worked out as I predicted it would. You will get to see Louie on the mound plenty even if he starts in St Paul, that cannot be denied. 

I would prefer they flip Disco and use either EROD or Gabby as part of a package to get a starter with upside and multiple years of control. I'm not holding my breath, but it may happen. I'm very glad they didn't trade one of those guys for 1 year of Burnes however.

When healthy Tony D has been much better than a fringe guy anyway. Sure we don't know if he will be healthy and if healthy if he can be as good as '21 or the beginning of last year. At his age that is fair to question and why I would prefer to flip him and get someone better. If he is on the team I definitely want Louie in St Paul working on his 3rd pitch, waiting, hungry. If every year we have a Ober, a Varland stashed in St Paul we'd be in pretty good shape, eh? Next year it could be Festa. 

I know Dr. Gast loves Vasquez and hates Jeffers, but I wonder if Vasquez plus Lee and another deep lotto, or perhaps our competitive balance pick, yield Luzardo from the Marlins.  Fits their professed needs at SS and C, and seems to be pretty fair value.

Use the money saved on Vasquez's contract to sign a RH bat and suddenly the Twins are looking dangerous.

23 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

ESPN just ranked E-rod their #22 prospect in all of baseball. I'm not sold on Luzardo's durability, so that's a high price for me. 

Dang that's high. Yeah when I made my suggestion it was assuming EROD at about 50 and Gabby around 100. Gabby is about one year behind EROD and with I little maturation his power could develop, helping his numbers. The thing that worries me with Rodriguez is his lack of contact. Gabby doesn't have that problem, but this is a big year for him. Can he bouce back at A+and even make AA later in the year? We will see but these two might be closer than people think. Maybe I better reconsider Rodriguez though. 

BTW I never said anything about Luzardo. With this front office, if they trade for a starter it is likely to be someone nobody has been discussing. 

8 hours ago, wabene said:

We had these same sorts of comments last year and it was obvious we would get a repeat this year. It is indisputable that you need well more than 5 starters to get through an MLB season. If Louie is in the rotation to start the year then there is absolutely no proven depth behind him. It could be argued that Louie is unproven too. People seem to get all worked up when we have a MLB caliber starter waiting in St Paul "wasting his bullets". Would you prefer to return to the days when we had 2 or 3 mediocre MLB starters in place and had to sign replacement level starters to fill out the rotation? Having a guy like Louie in St Paul is a good thing. It is an indication of depth. You can argue that T Disco isn't as good as Louie, but Louie has options. It's as simple as that. In spite of all the hand wringing last year Ober made 25 starts and it all worked out as I predicted it would. You will get to see Louie on the mound plenty even if he starts in St Paul, that cannot be denied. 

I would prefer they flip Disco and use either EROD or Gabby as part of a package to get a starter with upside and multiple years of control. I'm not holding my breath, but it may happen. I'm very glad they didn't trade one of those guys for 1 year of Burnes however.

When healthy Tony D has been much better than a fringe guy anyway. Sure we don't know if he will be healthy and if healthy if he can be as good as '21 or the beginning of last year. At his age that is fair to question and why I would prefer to flip him and get someone better. If he is on the team I definitely want Louie in St Paul working on his 3rd pitch, waiting, hungry. If every year we have a Ober, a Varland stashed in St Paul we'd be in pretty good shape, eh? Next year it could be Festa. 

I think Varland is unproven. I'm not even that high on him, but if you're going to bump him from the rotation, do it for a pitcher that's clearly better and preferably someone who affects the rotational hierarchy other than just the 5 spot (I'd happily settle for just "better," though.) DeSclafani is a replacement level starter that's filling out the rotation. I very much want to avoid those guys, which is why I too hope they flip him, pay somebody else to roster him, whatever. Varland in STP is good if my above criteria is met. I don't doubt we'll see Louie at some point; I disagree with the path we'll take to get there though. Stashing the better option and investing MLB innings into a retread under the guise of "depth," is self defeating. 

I'm just not in on hoping a 34 year old who was shut down with elbow issues last year rediscovers his form from 3 years ago. I don't want him in STP for the reasons listed above. Sure, if we had a solid rotation I'd absolutely agree. 

26 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I think Varland is unproven. I'm not even that high on him, but if you're going to bump him from the rotation, do it for a pitcher that's clearly better and preferably someone who affects the rotational hierarchy other than just the 5 spot (I'd happily settle for just "better," though.) DeSclafani is a replacement level starter that's filling out the rotation. I very much want to avoid those guys, which is why I too hope they flip him, pay somebody else to roster him, whatever. Varland in STP is good if my above criteria is met. I don't doubt we'll see Louie at some point; I disagree with the path we'll take to get there though. Stashing the better option and investing MLB innings into a retread under the guise of "depth," is self defeating. 

I'm just not in on hoping a 34 year old who was shut down with elbow issues last year rediscovers his form from 3 years ago. I don't want him in STP for the reasons listed above. Sure, if we had a solid rotation I'd absolutely agree. 

Well there you go I agree with all of that. I do think there is a chance DaSclafani has a bounce back and provides value. That chance is likely small. If they don't flip him I hope they shut him down if he is not performing and move on. I did just hear that there is a chance the Twins sign a one year deal with Bally's for 85% of the 55m deal. If that is the case, then offer Tony D to Pittsburgh or whatever and go get a pitcher.