It's Time For Aaron Hicks

Brock Beauchamp · May 11, 2015

Also, the world has changed......people probably need to adjust their thinking on HOW MUCH* a corner OF needs to hit to be even average now.

*as in, Hicks isn't there yet, but it's probably not as big a number as you have in your head

The league average OPS is around .710 this season (going from memory here, give or take .010 or .020 points).

If Aaron Hicks plays stellar corner OF defense, can OPS over .700, and the Twins get power from the rest of their lineup, then Hicks would be just fine in a corner spot.

Otto von Ballpark · May 11, 2015

It depends on Hicks' production. If he's still doing this in two weeks, I consider a promotion. If he's doing this in mid-June and hasn't received a promotion, then I'll start to wonder what the hell the Twins are thinking. So, to put a number on it, 2-4 weeks if Hicks continues raking in Rochester.

Hicks has been very good for three weeks. Given Hicks' recent history, three weeks isn't enough for me and I don't think it's enough to prove anything about Hicks' mental state, though I will defer to the coaching staff there for obvious reasons.

Good for three weeks? He's been limiting his Ks for 3 weeks (which is awesome), but his isolated power and discipline (OBP-AVG) were actually better during the first week of the season than his last 3 weeks.

I just don't see what 2 more weeks in AAA honestly means to a guy in Hicks' situation. He's not going to be fully "cured" of confidence/inconsistency problems with 2 more weeks or even another month in AAA. Strike while the iron is hot, I say.

Michael (ClassicMNTwins) · May 11, 2015

There are good reasons to call him up now and there are good reasons not to. What I want the Twins to do is whatever it takes for him to realize his potential and be a contributing part of the Twins outfield in 2016 and beyond. I hope they guess right.
And I'll always remember the time he accidentally threw the ball 320 feet on the fly to get Vernon Wells out at third base in Yankee Stadium.

Accidentally as in the ball slipped out of his hand as he was following though on his throw, just trying to hit the cut off man. It truly had some rainbow arc - check the play out on You Tube.

Brock Beauchamp · May 11, 2015

Good for three weeks? He's been limiting his Ks for 3 weeks (which is awesome), but his isolated power and discipline (OBP-AVG) were actually better during the first week of the season than his last 3 weeks.

I just don't see what 2 more weeks in AAA honestly means to a guy in Hicks' situation. He's not going to be fully "cured" of confidence/inconsistency problems with 2 more weeks or even another month in AAA. Strike while the iron is hot, I say.

And that's fair. If the coaches think he is ready, then I'll defer to their judgment... But I think calling up Hicks based purely on numbers is a mistake. That kid was a complete mess as recently as last season.

If the coaches like his new swing and think his head is in a good spot, then call him up... But we've been through the "Aaron Hicks is ready" dog and pony show too many times already. A little prudence isn't going to hurt in the long run.

simsypoo · May 11, 2015

Throughout his career in the minors, Hicks at the very least has shown pretty great plate discipline. So even if he can't hit .250, he's still getting on base at a .340 or .350 clip. That would be 2nd best on this year's squad based on 100+ PAs. Last year with the club even though he hit .215 AVG, it came with a .341 OBP.

Jordan Schafer's OBP as of today is .250. Hicks could beat that batting no handed.

Linus · May 11, 2015

July is insane. Buxton could/should be up in July. And neither of those moves (Hicks now, Buxton July) would have anything to do with our 2015 record or how Schafer/Robinson perform (given their 4th/5th OF upside). These moves would have to do with preparing for 2016.

A couple months starting in CF for both Hicks and Buxton will aid our offseason planning (and trade deadline planning, in Hicks' case) and should be beneficial for the players too going into 2016.

I withdraw July, meant to say June. I think the most important factor is having been around the league twice. If he handles the adjustments pitchers are making against him, that's the best gauge IMO.

I also think the defensive part of his game needs to be in the equation. There is something of a myth out there that he is some elite fielder. He has the tools to be a great fielder but he is certainly not there now. I think this is very important because he wouldn't have to hit nearly as much if he becomes a great fielder.

Long term, his best value to the Twins is a trade chip when Buxton is ready (which I don't think is going to be July BTW).

Nick Nelson · May 11, 2015

It depends on Hicks' production. If he's still doing this in two weeks, I consider a promotion. If he's doing this in mid-June and hasn't received a promotion, then I'll start to wonder what the hell the Twins are thinking. So, to put a number on it, 2-4 weeks if Hicks continues raking in Rochester.

Hicks has been very good for three weeks. Given Hicks' recent history, three weeks isn't enough for me and I don't think it's enough to prove anything about Hicks' mental state, though I will defer to the coaching staff there for obvious reasons.

I don't get this. So if he slumps a bit for two weeks, leave him sitting in the minors indefinitely while replacement-level players continue to rack up plate appearances for a major-league club that is trying to compete?

Mental gaffes and all, Hicks is a significantly more talented player than what the Twins are currently trotting out. They need to get as long of a look at him as they can this year. He's not going to learn to play in the majors by playing in Triple-A.

If he needs to sharpen his fundamentals, who better to learn from than Paul Molitor? If he needs to learn how to be a big-league ballplayer, who better to learn from than Torii Hunter? Minnesota is where Hicks needs to be. Not in a month, but now.

Blackjack · May 11, 2015

Another factor is the Arcia injury. Sounds like he'll be out for awhile, throw in a rehab assignment, it could be June 15 before he is ready to return. That gives Rosario time to prove himself or fail, but it will be a good learning experience for him. Hicks gets another month to prove he's not a fluke - again.

Then as others have said, there is the factor of when will Buxton be promoted to AAA? He was out for a full year, the Twins won't be rushing him, some solid playing time and solid results will benefit him.

June 15 is my prediction on when we'll see a lot of shuffling of the outfielders.

davidc3915 · May 11, 2015

With Buxton arriving eventually, and with the opportunity to see if Hicks has made the adjustments availible, I'd say now is the time. I also agree with those that have pointed out that we can't assume Hicks wouldnt be productive in LF or RF due to power issues.

I remember an episode of Gleeman & the Geek where they talked about a time where the Twins had too many CF and they had to play guys in corner OF spots just to get them playing time. Defensively, I don't see how Hicks in RF/LF would be a bad thing.

Brock Beauchamp · May 11, 2015

I don't get this. So if he slumps a bit for two weeks, leave him sitting in the minors indefinitely while replacement-level players continue to rack up plate appearances for a major-league club that is trying to compete?

Mental gaffes and all, Hicks is a significantly more talented player than what the Twins are currently trotting out. They need to get as long of a look at him as they can this year. He's not going to learn to play in the majors by playing in Triple-A.

If he needs to sharpen his fundamentals, who better to learn from than Paul Molitor? If he needs to learn how to be a big-league ballplayer, who better to learn from than Torii Hunter? Minnesota is where Hicks needs to be. Not in a month, but now.

As I said in a later post, I'm less concerned about Hicks' numbers than I am his approach and mental state. Those are basically impossible to judge from an outside perspective so... *shrugs*

jmlease1 · May 11, 2015

I think it's time for Hicks. I've seen enough of Schafer to be convinced he's not going to suddenly start raking enough to get his triple slash line up to something adequate any time soon if ever. He's just not that good. At best, he's a 4th OF and we already have one of those guys in Shane Robinson (who is significantly outplaying him, albeit in a much smaller role).

But I won't be shocked, or even all that outraged if the team waits to see where Arcia is at before they make a major roster move. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they bring up Hicks at the same time they bring back Arcia and send Rosario back down to work on some things.

The Twins will need to see what Hicks can do in MLB for an extended period soon. This is the make-or-break year for him, with his options running out and Buxton knocking on the door. But it's also a good year for the team to give him a real run again: Schafer is an easy candidate to relegate (I can't see anyone claiming him), Hicks is killing it in AAA right now, and team expectations are still low. If he can put up an OPS of 725-750 with plus defense and positional flexibility to play all three OF slots he'll be a real asset to the franchise for years to come, regardless of what happens with Buxton, Arcia, or Rosario.

Need to find out soon. If he keep hitting like this and hasn't made the roster by June 1, the team is making a significant mistake. It's ok if he stays down another week or so, but if this drags on 2-3 weeks then their either doing it wrong or there's something else going on here that they're not telling us.

tobi0040 · May 11, 2015

I think it's time for Hicks. I've seen enough of Schafer to be convinced he's not going to suddenly start raking enough to get his triple slash line up to something adequate any time soon if ever. He's just not that good. At best, he's a 4th OF and we already have one of those guys in Shane Robinson (who is significantly outplaying him, albeit in a much smaller role).

But I won't be shocked, or even all that outraged if the team waits to see where Arcia is at before they make a major roster move. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they bring up Hicks at the same time they bring back Arcia and send Rosario back down to work on some things.

The Twins will need to see what Hicks can do in MLB for an extended period soon. This is the make-or-break year for him, with his options running out and Buxton knocking on the door. But it's also a good year for the team to give him a real run again: Schafer is an easy candidate to relegate (I can't see anyone claiming him), Hicks is killing it in AAA right now, and team expectations are still low. If he can put up an OPS of 725-750 with plus defense and positional flexibility to play all three OF slots he'll be a real asset to the franchise for years to come, regardless of what happens with Buxton, Arcia, or Rosario.

Need to find out soon. If he keep hitting like this and hasn't made the roster by June 1, the team is making a significant mistake. It's ok if he stays down another week or so, but if this drags on 2-3 weeks then their either doing it wrong or there's something else going on here that they're not telling us.

Agreed on all fronts. Hicks is at least a 4th OF. Most teams have weak hitting 4th OF that can play all three OF positions and pinch run. He does these things at least as good as the Schafer and Robinson, but obviously has some upside too

Edited May 11, 2015 by tobi0040

Otto von Ballpark · May 11, 2015

And that's fair. If the coaches think he is ready, then I'll defer to their judgment... But I think calling up Hicks based purely on numbers is a mistake. That kid was a complete mess as recently as last season.

If the coaches like his new swing and think his head is in a good spot, then call him up... But we've been through the "Aaron Hicks is ready" dog and pony show too many times already. A little prudence isn't going to hurt in the long run.

What are you going to know in 2-4 weeks that you don't know now? Frankly I don't even think a coach's judgement should change that much in that little time.

We've actually never been through the "Aaron Hicks is ready" show quite like this. He's got as many PA's in 2015 now as he had in those 2013-2014 spring trainings *combined*. And he's got virtually the same excellent OPS as those combined spring trainings, except now with more significantly more BBs, fewer Ks, and a higher ISO (and that's not even discounting things like that fluke wind-aided 3 HR spring training game, which by itself is worth like .100 in SLG/OPS).

Edited May 11, 2015 by spycake

uberfan · May 11, 2015

Yes! Rosario-Hicks-Hunter (for now at least) in the outfield. Soul patrol 2.0.

TheLeviathan · May 11, 2015

What are you going to know in 2-4 weeks that you don't know now? Frankly I don't even think a coach's judgement should change that much in that little time.

We've actually never been through the "Aaron Hicks is ready" show quite like this. He's got as many PA's in 2015 now as he had in those 2013-2014 spring trainings *combined*. And he's got virtually the same excellent OPS as those combined spring trainings, except now with more significantly more BBs, fewer Ks, and a higher ISO (and that's not even discounting things like that fluke wind-aided 3 HR spring training game, which by itself is worth like .100 in SLG/OPS).

To your first point - every game presents an opportunity for challenge and adversity. Overcoming that is Hicks' biggest obstacle. Another month of those opportunities gives a chance to see if things have really changed.

To your second point - comparing his start this year to the Twins' past asinine decisions to bring him up is sort of unfair. No one denies he has gotten off to a good start. Some of us are just tired of a small sample of productivity being enough for this guy to keep getting the call.

If the professional evaluators in the organization think he's turned the corner, I'm on board. 19 boxscores, no matter how good, don't sell me on this particular guy. I've seen enough of that with him. And I damn sure don't decide his future based on anything to do with Schaefer. That's a really poor way to develop players.

Otto von Ballpark · May 11, 2015

Mental gaffes and all, Hicks is a significantly more talented player than what the Twins are currently trotting out.

Agreed, and I think people are holding Hicks to too high of a standard. Mental gaffes and career-long inconsistency don't just go away with a little extra seasoning. It was important to finally get him a good start in 2015, and not repeat the Aprils of 2013-2014, but he's not going to become a completely different person/player in the next 2-4 weeks (just as he hasn't in the past 4 weeks).

He's a talented but streaky player, age 25, with 5 more seasons of team control (the first 2 at serf wages), and he's finally on a hot streak again. He is infinitely more worthy of playing in MLB next to Torii Hunter and under Paul Molitor right now than Jordan Schafer.

Otto von Ballpark · May 11, 2015

To your first point - every game presents an opportunity for challenge and adversity. Overcoming that is Hicks' biggest obstacle. Another month of those opportunities gives a chance to see if things have really changed.

See my last just-submitted post. Hicks isn't going to significantly change over the next 2-4 weeks, over the past 4 weeks, or even over the 2 months combined. Thinking otherwise reminds me of the old saw about trying to change your husband once you are married to him...

tobi0040 · May 11, 2015

He is infinitely more worthy of playing in MLB next to Torii Hunter and under Paul Molitor right now than Jordan Schafer.

Agreed. Come July 1, I would argue we have four players that can play CF better than Schafer. So he would not be taking reps from any one.

My list is Buxton, Santana, Hicks, and Rosario.

stringer bell · May 11, 2015

Since Steve quoted my post about not having the bat to be a regular corner outfielder, I'd like to remind everyone that I never used the word "power" . I see Hicks as someone that will always hit 8-9 in the order and could provide plus OBP, but he's got to hit more than .225. I don't think that's enough to be a regular in left or right, especially if he continues to struggle against RH pitching. If we're considering Hicks as a center fielder, the bar is much lower for offensive production to be a valuable piece.

Since I continue to be a "Buxton Believer", I don't see much future for Aaron Hicks with the Twins. Calling him up and having him produce could improve his trade value. I really haven't closed the door on him being a better hitter, but something about "fool me once" "fool me twice" comes to mind.

Otto von Ballpark · May 11, 2015

And I damn sure don't decide his future based on anything to do with Schaefer. That's a really poor way to develop players.

Agreed. But counting on Schafer when you are holding Hicks to such a high standard is also a really poor way to assemble a ballclub.

dxpavelka · May 11, 2015

It's not about the major league club it's about doing the right thing for Hicks which would be to let him master AAA.

Do you know what they call guys who have mastered AAA ball? AAA ball players. Move him up. Nothing to be gained by having a guy with 550 big league plate appearances and currently has a .965 OPS in AAA stay in AAA.

Otto von Ballpark · May 11, 2015

Since Steve quoted my post about not having the bat to be a regular corner outfielder, I'd like to remind everyone that I never used the word "power" . I see Hicks as someone that will always hit 8-9 in the order and could provide plus OBP, but he's got to hit more than .225. I don't think that's enough to be a regular in left or right, especially if he continues to struggle against RH pitching. If we're considering Hicks as a center fielder, the bar is much lower for offensive production to be a valuable piece.

I think given the inconsistency on display during Hicks' entire pro career, I think this is very fair. He can be good at times, perhaps good enough to be our CF the rest of this season, but he will likely continue to be streaky, so I wouldn't want to count on him as a regular in a corner spot or at the top of the order again. At least not until we have another couple seasons worth of data on him.

blairpaul715 · May 11, 2015

With Hick's horrible track record in the majors, he needs more time in AAA until he can prove that the last month hasn't been an anomoly.

And why lump Schafer & Robinson together? Shane Robinson is hitting .315 and has displayed excellent defense since day 1. He may not be part of the future with the Twins, but so far he's excelled well past expectations.

And why cant Robinson be part of the future, not all players need to be 28 and under........but i do understand we have a plethora of outfielders in the Minors, but most of those if they make it , we want them playing everyday, if we have a 5th outfielder I have no problem with a guy like Robinson.....I like having a roster spot for someone who has to play hard every second of every minute to keep his roster spot, ala Little Nicky Punto!!!!

Tibs · May 11, 2015

"this is still a young kid"

He's 25. When I was 25 I had two kids and a mortgage.

Good for you. That doesn't make a 25 year old not young.

sane · May 11, 2015

"stubborn, yet air head quality to him. Other notable Twins failures that have had that liability? Carlos Gomez and Matt Garza"..Kyle Lohse, AJ Pierzinski, Mike Redmond, Dan Gladden, Bert Blyleven,Juan Berenguer, David Ortiz....

sane · May 11, 2015

"That doesn't make a 25 year old not young"....Yes it does! Two kids and a mortgage can age you fast!

Willihammer · May 11, 2015

I'll join the "call him up camp." I don't really buy into the seasoning or mental delicacy arguments. I'm just sick of watching the current CF post a .257/.289/.284 line, worst position on the team. Even the old Hicks, with a .606 OPS, would be better.

COtwin · May 11, 2015

In case no one mentioned it. Price has been bumped to Saturday instead of Thursday. Hick wouldn't have to face him. Just a thought.

Of course we haven't exactly figured out Sanchez.

Linus · May 11, 2015

Do you know what they call guys who have mastered AAA ball? AAA ball players. Move him up. Nothing to be gained by having a guy with 550 big league plate appearances and currently has a .965 OPS in AAA stay in AAA.

Yep, so when he has mastered AAA they should call him up. I guess I don't count a month as proof that he has it mastered or that he has nothing left to gain from playing in AAA.

biscuit · May 11, 2015

I don't know if Hicks is ready. The list is long of players who ate it up at AAA, but who just couldn't do the job in the bigs. But I'm pretty sure Schafer is ready to go elsewhere.

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