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    Is Byron Buxton Too Much Miguel Sano?


    Ted Schwerzler

    The Minnesota Twins have had a strong start to their season, and they have a series victory against the Houston Astros along with a split with the New York Yankees in New York. Although Byron Buxton isn’t yet playing in the field, he’s been consistently in the lineup as the designated hitter. Unfortunately, his approach has been less than ideal.

     

    Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

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    For years, the Minnesota Twins operated as though Byron Buxton was a slap hitter with the ability to get on base only by putting the ball on the ground. Utilizing his otherworldly speed, it seemed the goal was to bunt or put the ball in play and then hope his quickness would translate to miscues by the defense.

    Since 2019, we have seen Buxton become among the best hitters in baseball. In maturing as a player, he retooled his swing and distanced himself from a process that left so many of his skills going to waste. From the Bomba Squad year up until last season, Buxton owned an .874 OPS which translated to a 136 OPS+. The only problem is that his on-base abilities have never taken off.

    For years it has seemed like Buxton was more of a gap and power hitter than he was truly a singles and stolen base guy. As much speed as he possesses, there is no denying that the thump brought by his bat can be powerful. On a per-162 game basis, Buxton’s home run numbers rival those of Aaron Judge and Mike Trout. With power traditionally comes strikeouts though, and while they represent an out just like any other, drawing walks to even things out is a must.

    When the Twins signed Joey Gallo this offseason the immediate sentiment was another Miguel Sano type player being brought into the fold. That’s not necessarily wrong in and of itself, but the reality is that Gallo has consistently produced strong on-base skills to go with his power. Sano only flashed that in small bursts, and had he been able to continue, there is less of a chance he’d be unemployed right now.

    Unfortunately for Buxton, he not only isn’t a great average hitter (which is fine), but he has failed to consistently deliver in the on-base category (which is not). Buxton’s slash line is so heavily skewed toward his slugging percentage that any time he goes through slumps the lack of production will be massively felt. He’s not quite a three true outcomes player, but he is much more closely tied than anyone with his abilities should be.

    In 2023 the Twins have seen Buxton strike out a league-high 25 times across just 16 games. He has drawn just six walks to offset that output. While Buxton was named an All-Star last year he struck out in a whopping 30.4% of his at bats. That’s just north of his career average, and has jumped all the way to 35.7% in the early going of 2023.

    With a process resulting in that much whiffing, it’s not surprising the contact isn’t ideal either. Buxton’s 23.7% hard hit rate is a career-low, and well off the 40% he has tallied each of the past two seasons. He is actually chasing similar to previous seasons at 32.7%, but any time he swings out of the zone it has resulted in just a 55.8% contact rate.

    There hasn’t been a substantial change in the way pitchers have attacked Buxton when he steps in this year either. He’s seeing a similar number of fastballs and offspeed offerings, but the usage of curveballs against him has doubled. That could be reflective of intention, or simply the repertoire carried by those arms he has faced.

    At any rate, strikeouts have long been an issue for Buxton, and maybe not stated to the degree of a Sano or current teammate Gallo. Both of those players have career OBP numbers north of .325. Since Buxton broke out in 2019, he has generated just a .316 OBP and he falls off a cliff entirely when the slugging output is not there. For 2023 Buxton has a paltry .300 OBP, and his .687 OPS makes him a 94 OPS+ hitter. That might be fine if he was also providing elite outfield defense. As a top-of-the-order designated hitter, it isn’t what the Twins can handle at all.

    This is still a relatively small sample size for 2023, but the trend is a concerning one that has gone on for years. Buxton needs to strike out less, or find a way to generate more walks. Being an all or nothing guy that misses time and doesn’t regularly play defense isn’t good for anyone involved.

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    2 hours ago, Jeff D. said:

    Hitting Stats tell us what happens if a guy is in the batter's box.

    A complete baseball player stands in the batter's box and then goes into the field.

    A great ballplayer stands in the batter's box, goes into the field and does this consistently for years while producing results.

    Byron Buxton is not a great ballplayer. He is, however, very well paid for a part time, over-hyped major leaguer. Kudos to him for maximizing his earning potential. He is far less of a contributor for this Twins team than most of the players that are on our roster. My personal (probably unpopular opinion) thoughts are that we should unload the guy (no-trade clause), but that seems very remotely possible.

    GO TWINS!

    Twins Geezer ... out. 

    Trade him.  

    This is a "coaching/Managing" issue... clearly the coaching staff STILL overvalues the home run even given the change of rules. Do we try to run... NO. Let's swing for the fences and take good overall hitters and try to make them "yank" and hit for power. Drives me bonkers.

    Buxton is who he is at this point.  He is a streaky hitter that when hot will carry an offense and one of most dangerous hitters in league, but when he is not hot, he will strike out a ton and provide almost no offense.  Right now he is on a bad streak.  Hopefully he can heat up soon. He will never become what people want him to be, he tried years ago and failed.  He will not be a guy that walks a lot.  The book on him has never changed, get ahead in count, then just throw endless sliders off the plate, he will chase them more often than not.  Just throw a fastball once in awhile low and outside corner to keep him honest and thinking maybe this time it will be that fastball.  He needs to attack early in counts because if he does not, he will fall behind and strike out more often than not. 

    6 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

    Good theory, but I have my doubts that this is his issue.  The team errors on the conservative side and would probably hold him out if he had a hang nail.  Also, you seem pretty sure that he is playing hurt, but I've heard nothing confirming that from the team or announcing crews.  Do you have a solid source for that information or are you assuming that based on his performance post head roll?

    I am basing on the video and on how he went overnight from being a productive hitter to flailing.

    I have zero inside knowledge, but have many stories of players who drop in performance and then find out years later they were playing with chronic injuries.

    The Twins Zoilo V. And Camilio P. Come to mind.

    For that matter, Killebrew during his very lengthy period waiting for HR number 500.

    All injury related

    18 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

    I am glad you chose to address this Ted.  I am very disappointed in the "Superstar" Buxton.  Without fielding his value is truly diminished.  I remember the first years he was up and they struggled with him to get a batting stance that worked - step, spread stance, etc.  It did not work, then suddenly it seemed to take. His first four years he hit 209, 205, 253, 156.  OPA+ 57, 90, 93, 5.  Yes there were injuries - there always are.

    But then age 25 - 28 his OPS+ went to 115, 125, 171, 134.  

    Now it is 94 and falling.  I wish I knew what to say, but at this point Michael Taylor is outperforming him with a 95. 

    For a team struggling for offense this is not acceptable. 

    Paul Molitor fixed him once...

    I'm very thankful Buxton's extension was signed while injury issues were looming so they weren't forced to give him any real money. Taking a toolsy player and shutting down the use of those tools in favor of turning him into a slightly above average DH just shows how fragile they feel he is physically. Frankly, I've never seen anything like it.

    4 hours ago, launchingthrees said:

    I'm very thankful Buxton's extension was signed while injury issues were looming so they weren't forced to give him any real money. Taking a toolsy player and shutting down the use of those tools in favor of turning him into a slightly above average DH just shows how fragile they feel he is physically. Frankly, I've never seen anything like it.

    They haven't turned him into Miguel Sano, they turned him into Rob Deer.

    It'd be comical, if not so tragic. 




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