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On Tuesday, Fish On First's Sean McCormick published a piece proposing three potential offseason deals involving Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo. McCormick's first proposal sent the 27-year-old southpaw to the Chicago Cubs for highly-touted outfield prospect Owen Caissie and fellow left-handed pitcher Jordan Wicks. His second trade proposal sent Luzardo to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for outfielder Heston Kjerstad, shortstop prospect Griff O'Ferrall (which, holy s***, what a name), outfield prospect Austin Overn, and right-handed pitcher Kevin Velasco.
McCormick mocking Luzardo to the Cubs and Orioles makes oodles of sense. Chicago has been linked to the former third-round pick extensively the past week, an expression of their desire to acquire a frontline arm after fortifying their rotation depth by signing veteran Matthew Boyd to a two-year, $29 million contract earlier this month. Baltimore just signed NPB legend starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano to a one-year, $13-million deal. However, last season's ace Corbin Burnes is expected to sign with either the Toronto Blue Jays or San Francisco Giants this winter, leaving a 128 ERA+ over 194 1/3 innings-pitched-sized hole in their rotation. Adding Luzardo to a front-of-rotation mix of Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez would be a savvy move by O's general manager Mike Elias.
Again, McCormick's initial two mock trade proposals are sound and rooted in logic. Chicago and Baltimore are contending teams with money and prospects to spend. Evidently, Luzardo will likely end up with one of those two teams, the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers, right? Right?! Remember how I noted McCormick concocted three Luzardo trade proposals? Interestingly, the third team wasn't the Yankees, Dodgers, or David Stearns's new-look New York Mets. The third team was, in fact, your Minnesota Twins.
A shock to the system of those residing in Twins Territory or admiring it from afar, crowds instantly push back against McCormick's notion. "They can't do that!" proclaim fans from Warroad to Lanesboro and beyond. "They'd be lucky to sign Spencer Turnbull after trading away half their starting infield," quips the most intelligent, well-adjusted individual in the Upper Midwest, as they disparage those who dream of a better future for the team they love.
Well, the Twins could reasonably acquire Luzardo. The Cubs' deal for him, after all, appears to be dead. First, however, it should be noted that McCormick's mock trade sending Luzardo to Minnesota looks like this:
- Minnesota receives: Left-handed starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo, left-handed reliever Andrew Nardi
- Miami receives: Infield prospect Luke Keaschall, right-handed pitching prospect CJ Culpepper, Minnesota's Competitive Balance Round A Draft Pick
In this hypothetical trade, the Twins would acquire a frontline starting pitcher at the cost of their third- (Keaschall) and 11th (Culpepper)-ranked prospects and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick that figures to be in the mid-30s somewhere, overall. Admittedly, this is a hefty package for the front office to surrender. Still, if Minnesota were to acquire a healthy Luzardo who performed like the 2023 version of himself (131 ERA+ over 178 2/3 innings pitched), the price would be well worth it.
When discussing any potential trades the Twins could be involved with this offseason, one must bring up the most significant hurdle the front office faces: strict owner-imposed spending restrictions. Ownership has set the 2025 payroll around $130 million, similar to last season. The organization's current payroll is hovering around $142 million, meaning they need to shed around $12 million to appease the spending restrictions placed on them. The front office will likely meet these requests by parting ways with veterans Christian Vázquez ($10 million) and Chris Paddack ($7.5 million). If Minnesota can successfully convince other teams to take on these players' entire contracts, that would give them roughly $5.5 million to play with.
Luzardo ($8.6 million) and Nardi ($800,000) will make roughly $9.4 million next season. That being the case, the Twins would need to shed over $3 million from their books to make this trade plausible. This is where super-utility player Willi Castro comes into the equation. Minnesota could trade away Castro's $6.8-million 2025 salary, providing them the salary necessary to acquire Luzardo and Nardi and $2.9 million left to spend on a right-handed hitting corner outfielder or part-time first baseman.
Neither Vázquez, Paddack, nor Castro would be traded to Miami in this hypothetical scenario. The Marlins are a rebuilding franchise that needs more young, controllable talent than veterans on one-year deals. That said, the Twins could recoup some of the prospect capital lost in the Luzardo/Nardi deal by shipping away the three veterans, with much of the value recouped by a Castro trade. Acquiring Luzardo and pairing him with current frontline starting trio Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober would provide the Twins with one of MLB's most formidable and deepest starting rotations.
Nardi could also step in as the team's primary left-handed starting reliever, meaning fellow left-handed relievers Kody Funderburk, Brent Headrick, and Jovani Moran could begin the season as depth options at Triple-A rather than being overstretched at the major-league level early in the season. They'd have a complete and very impressive pitching staff, and they'd still have Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, José Miranda, and the rest of their core of young position players around Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton.
Again, the prospect capital given up would be significant, and the front office would need to participate in salary gymnastics to make this deal plausible. Still, dipping into their prospect capital to acquire a frontline starting pitcher who could propel them into a World Series contender would be a shrewd challenge move by a front office hampered by significant spending restrictions.
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