Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • Twins News & Analysis

    How the Twins and the Orioles Can Match Up On a Joe Ryan Trade

    The Orioles need pitching, and the Twins need hitting. Are these two teams a match made in trade deadline heaven?

    Cody Christie
    Image courtesy of © Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

    Twins Video

    The MLB trade deadline may be nearly two months away, but unique circumstances could push teams to be active earlier, rather than later. The Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles present a tantalizing potential trade match. Flush with offensive talent in its farm system, Baltimore could use a front-line arm to stabilize its rotation. Minnesota is deep with majors-caliber pitchers and could bolster its offense or restock its farm system. Both teams were expected to be in contention this season, and disappointing starts could leave each looking to make an early splash. 

    Jim Bowden, a former GM and writer for The Athletic, recently wrote about five potential trades he’d like to see this month. In the piece, he floated a package featuring left-handed pitcher Cade Povich, corner infielder Coby Mayo, and righty pitching prospect Michael Forret to the Twins for starter Joe Ryan. However, the Twins may covet different pieces, targeting higher-upside talent or more immediate impact.

    Joe Ryan’s All-Star Potential
    Ryan has delivered ace-like numbers through early May, with Twins Daily naming him the team’s top pitcher for the month. Over seven starts, Ryan is 2–2 with a 2.93 ERA, 47 strikeouts in 40 innings, and a 0.90 WHIP. His four-seamer and sweeper have combined to hold opponents to sub-.200 batting averages, and he has a career-best 3.2 BB%. Ryan is under club control through 2027, a critical component for an Orioles squad that was supposed to be in the middle of a winning window. Given Baltimore’s offseason departure of Corbin Burnes and setbacks to former top prospect Grayson Rodríguez, Ryan represents a plug-and-play rotation upgrade.

    Baltimore’s Young Hitting Wealth
    The Orioles boast one of the game’s most exciting hitting pipelines:

    Coby Mayo (3B/1B): Baltimore’s No. 2 prospect, Mayo is a corner infielder who has already gotten some big-league experience. Entering the 2025 season, he had a .921 OPS during his minor-league career. He currently ranks as the 11th overall in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100, and had batted balls at 106.5 and 109.3 mph Thursday against the Twins—although he went just 1-for-4.

    Samuel Basallo (C/1B): MLB Pipeline’s No. 1 Orioles farmhand, Basallo turned 20 last year and hit 19 homers and 25 doubles en route to an appearance in the Futures Game. There are defensive questions, but his cannon of an arm might help him stick at catcher. MLB Pipeline ranks him as baseball’s 10th-best prospect. 

    Enrique Bradfield Jr. (OF): A 2023 first-rounder, Bradfield’s game-changing speed (74 steals in 108 games last season) and strong contact skills make him a future everyday center fielder. He isn’t going to hit for a lot of power, so he must find other ways to get on base. Bradfield’s skillset is intriguing, so he could be tough to pry away from the Orioles. 

    Beyond these headliners, the system houses tools-driven outfielders like Vance Honeycutt and Dylan Beavers, plus righty arms in Chayce McDermott, Forret, and Nestor German. Together, these players form a deep, diverse pool of tradable assets.

    Twins’ Rotation and Prospect Depth
    Minnesota already fields a capable rotation, with Pablo López and Bailey Ober at the top. Their farm system seems to have started churning out arms, with players like David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Zebby Matthews already impacting the big-league rotation. Other arms, like Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, and Connor Prielipp, are close to the big leagues. With such depth, the Twins could afford to part with Ryan if they receive blue-chip hitting talent in return.

    Bowden’s Povich-Mayo-Forret Proposal
    Jim Bowden’s Athletic column suggested a package of:

    Cade Povich (LHP): A former Twins draftee who has pitched the last two seasons in Baltimore’s rotation. Over the last two seasons, he has posted a 5.31 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP while being worth -0.8 WAR. The Twins pounced on him for five earned runs in six frames during his start earlier this week, but he retired the side in order in every inning except the one in which they scored all of those tallies. 

    Coby Mayo (1B/3B): The power corner-infielder is the team’s second-best prospect. From Minnesota’s perspective, he is intriguing because of his offensive potential and proximity to the big leagues. The Twins have struggled to develop hitting talent in recent years, and Mayo could be one piece that will help the team over the next decade. 

    Michael Forret (RHP): MLB Pipeline ranks him as Baltimore’s eighth-best prospect, but he started this year at High-A. The Twins may like his potential upside, which could be one reason to target him. However, he likely wouldn’t impact the big league roster until 2027.  

    While this haul addresses Ryan’s departure, Povich’s middling upside makes it challenging for the Twins to want him included in a deal. The club likely prefers its internal options over Povich, so let’s see what other trade options are available in Baltimore’s system. 

    A More Enticing Alternative: Basallo as the Headliner
    Instead, the Twins should insist on Basallo as the cornerstone, because his combination of 70-grade power, advanced receiving skills, and athleticism would fill multiple needs. With Christian Vázquez on an expiring deal, Basallo could impact the team’s roster as soon as 2026. The Orioles also have Adley Rutschman as the team’s long-term catching option, so they may be willing to part with Basallo, who would remain under team control deep into the next decade.

    This would have to be a straight-up deal, and even then, the Birds might balk, but it would be the best path to a win-win outcome. Baltimore leaves with a bona fide ace. Minnesota flips Ryan for a cornerstone catcher of the future.

    Baltimore’s plethora of hitting prospects matches perfectly with Minnesota’s pitching stockpile. While Bowden’s initial framework offers a solid starting point, the Twins should leverage their negotiating power to extract higher-ceiling talent in exchange for Ryan. Starting pitching comes at a premium, and MLB trades have played out that way in recent years. Both sides could craft a blockbuster at this stage that reshapes each franchise’s fortunes well beyond July’s trade deadline.


    What type of deal makes sense for the Twins and the Orioles? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

    Follow Twins Daily For Minnesota Twins News & Analysis

    Recent Twins Articles

    Recent Twins Videos

    Twins Top Prospects

    James Ellwanger

    Fort Myers Mighty Mussels - A, RHP
    On Wednesday, Ellwanger walked 3 and struck out 6 batters in 4 2/3 scoreless, hitless innings. In 3 starts and 11 2/3 innings, he's given up no runs, just 3 hits, walked 5 and has 15 strikeouts.

    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

    7 hours ago, DannySD said:

    Not sure about this exact trade, but they'll have to trade two of Lopez/Ryan/Ober soon unless payroll goes up. Ryan/Ober's arb years may even be too expensive, there's a bunch of cheaper options, and this is how the Twins operate. Trades for young offense could happen if they are out of it at the deadline. 

    Have you considered that they have 34.68M coming off the books next year.  They could keep Lopez/Ryan and Ober but spending would have to go up to keep all of the players that will be ARB-2 and Arb-3 in 2026-27, especially if Lewis/Wallner and Larnach perform well.  Jeffers comes of in 2027 but Duran and Jax are free agents along with Lopez/Ryan and Ober in 2028.  

    Trading Lopez would make it feasible to keep them all.  Matthews will replace Paddock.  If Festa or Prielipp are also mid-rotation or better, they will be able to move one of Lopez/Ryan or Ober.  Moving Lopez along with the 2026 free agents coming of would give them $55M to spend if they just maintain current spending levels.  Obviously, they can't add 2+ year contracts next year if they want to cover 2027 arbitration increases.  The only players coming off in 2027 are Jeffers, Tonkin, and Topa.

    2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

    Have you considered that they have 34.68M coming off the books next year....

     

    Did you include Dobnak's $3M? I think the number is actually over $37M. 

    Right now the Arb increases are Ober, Ryan, Duran, Jax, Stewart, Sands, Jeffers, Lewis and Larnach. Others who are Arb-eligible are Tonkin, Alcala, Lovelady, Clemens, Bride and Miranda.

    16 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

    Did you include Dobnak's $3M? I think the number is actually over $37M. 

    Right now the Arb increases are Ober, Ryan, Duran, Jax, Stewart, Sands, Jeffers, Lewis and Larnach. Others who are Arb-eligible are Tonkin, Alcala, Lovelady, Clemens, Bride and Miranda.

    Here are the numbers for changes in 2026.  They project around $125M with arbitration increases.  

    Vasquez 10,000,000
    Paddack 7,500,000
    Bader 6,250,000
    Correa 5,833,000
    Columbe 3,000,000
    Dobnak 3,000,000
    Total 35,583,000
    14 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

    Here are the numbers for changes in 2026.  They project around $125M with arbitration increases.  

    Vasquez 10,000,000
    Paddack 7,500,000
    Bader 6,250,000
    Correa 5,833,000
    Columbe 3,000,000
    Dobnak 3,000,000
    Total 35,583,000

    Thanks. I forgot about Correa's reduction. There's also Castro's $6.4M and France's $1M, right? So that's essentially $43M coming off. 

     

    On 5/9/2025 at 1:25 PM, bean5302 said:

    And Chris Bassitt was the top pitcher in all of MLB through the first two weeks this year....

    Joe Ryan hasn't worn out. Scouting reports catch up to this adjustments and his luck runs out so he gets clobbered in the 2nd half. Hopefully, this year will be different for him as I like watching Twins players succeed, but unfortunately for you and Joe Ryan, there has been a second half to the season since MLB started, and cherry picking only the parts you like doesn't invalidate the fact Joe Ryan's very best season was 3.1 fWAR.

    The average fWAR for even an All Star pitcher is 4.0. Cy Young candidates are generally around 6.0. 

    I guess I didn't realize top 30 pitchers didn't include pitchers that weren't cy young or All Stars.  My bad LOL.  Ryan just needs to remain healthy and he will likely be well in the top 30.  In either case he is #2 and worst,  and that is a dang fine pitcher by any metric.  

    4 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

    Thanks. I forgot about Correa's reduction. There's also Castro's $6.4M and France's $1M, right? So that's essentially $43M coming off. 

     

    IDK how I missed Castro.  The reason I did not include France is that his salary is so low that his replacement will cost at least $820K so there won't be any savings.

    They can probably afford to keep everyone.  The bigger problem long-term is having so many important players coming off the same year (2028).  It would very likely close their window.  If they can get an equivalent replacement in Matthews / Festa / Prielipp they could sustain a very good rotation at a lower cost.  I see a similar situation with OFers.  At least, I am hoping Jenkins, Emma, and others will allow them to trade Larnach or Wallner in the next year and a half..  We would be taking a page out of the Ray's playbook.

    25 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

    IDK how I missed Castro.  The reason I did not include France is that his salary is so low that his replacement will cost at least $820K so there won't be any savings.

    They can probably afford to keep everyone.  The bigger problem long-term is having so many important players coming off the same year (2028).  It would very likely close their window.  If they can get an equivalent replacement in Matthews / Festa / Prielipp they could sustain a very good rotation at a lower cost.  I see a similar situation with OFers.  At least, I am hoping Jenkins, Emma, and others will allow them to trade Larnach or Wallner in the next year and a half..  We would be taking a page out of the Ray's playbook.

    Makes sense on France. 

    On 5/9/2025 at 5:46 PM, NYCTK said:

    So you think the Orioles should be sellers, and the trade you propose they take is to take on salary, trade away a hitter under control next season, and settle for a mediocre prospect. 

     

    No one is saying the Twins give up. a “mediocre “ prospect. A guy in the 11-29 range from the Twins system has potential. The Orioles get a back end MLB starter who might be more than that and who helps fill a huge roster hole, plus a player with real potential. The Twins get a solid but not great bat to play 1B/ DH and fill the rotation hole from below. Seems like a good deal for both sides given where the are and each team’s realistic potential result this year. 

    8 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

    Have you considered that they have 34.68M coming off the books next year.  They could keep Lopez/Ryan and Ober but spending would have to go up to keep all of the players that will be ARB-2 and Arb-3 in 2026-27, especially if Lewis/Wallner and Larnach perform well.  Jeffers comes of in 2027 but Duran and Jax are free agents along with Lopez/Ryan and Ober in 2028.  

    Trading Lopez would make it feasible to keep them all.  Matthews will replace Paddock.  If Festa or Prielipp are also mid-rotation or better, they will be able to move one of Lopez/Ryan or Ober.  Moving Lopez along with the 2026 free agents coming of would give them $55M to spend if they just maintain current spending levels.  Obviously, they can't add 2+ year contracts next year if they want to cover 2027 arbitration increases.  The only players coming off in 2027 are Jeffers, Tonkin, and Topa.

    Of course, they need to replace Vazquez with a FA or trade, as they have zero catchers. They have to replace  France who makes a measly 1 million (no one in the minors is a 1B). 

    33 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Of course, they need to replace Vazquez with a FA or trade, as they have zero catchers. They have to replace  France who makes a measly 1 million (no one in the minors is a 1B). 

    Sure seems likely they replace Vasquez via free agency @ 6-10M.  1B is hard tom predict.  I see Keaschall becoming the everyday 2B.  If one of Lewis/Lee moves to 1B you would think that would be Lewis, right?

    2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

    Sure seems likely they replace Vasquez via free agency @ 6-10M.  1B is hard tom predict.  I see Keaschall becoming the everyday 2B.  If one of Lewis/Lee moves to 1B you would think that would be Lewis, right?

    I hope Lewis moves to first, and not Lee. But I'm never counting on Lewis being healthy. That's negative, but it's been four years now. Keaschell, I am a big fan, but the sample size is tiny. It's hard to see this front office not signing several veterans, it's in their DNA. 

    45 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    I hope Lewis moves to first, and not Lee. But I'm never counting on Lewis being healthy. That's negative, but it's been four years now. Keaschell, I am a big fan, but the sample size is tiny. It's hard to see this front office not signing several veterans, it's in their DNA. 

    Lee at 3B, Keaschell at 2B, Correa at SS seems like the path ahead for as long as Correa doesn't hit the age cliff. 

    Part of me sorta hopes the team is in a position at some point to deal Lopez for an answer at 1B.  Then invest in Ryan/Ober/Zebby/Festa/other up and comers in the years ahead.  

     

    You aren't getting that much for paddock. And likely not SWR either. But I'm not dealing Ryan for at least another year plus. 

    Paddack is still young. I can see a team like the Yankees or dodgers throwing him  $50M/4yr deal. ….as part of a trade

    Paddack is a Wild Card as his last 3 starts have been REALLY GOOD.  Teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and Orioles are pitching needy NOW.  For all the arms the Dodgers have, how long does anyone think Kershaw will last?  Glaznow?  Snell?  I know at some point Ohtani will enter the rotation and Gonsolin is finally back in the rotation, but it's amazing to consider how much money the Dodgers have invested in "fragile SP's."

    Paddack and SWR are certainly guys to consider trading at this point.  But Ryan, Lopez and Ober are the foundation for anything GOOD that can happen for the Twins this season.  With new ownership sometime this season or next (how long can the Pohlad's draw this out?) even a slight increase in salary could/should be expected. 

    It will be very interesting to see how the Twins draw in the coming home stand against Cleveland and the Royals.  With a winning streak active and the Twins back into the mix after the lethargic start it will be telling what message the fans send the Pohlad family...if any message is sent at all.  

    On 5/10/2025 at 10:14 AM, bean5302 said:

    No, he's not. At least not historically. I've done the analysis of where guys like Lopez, Ryan and Ober historically rank in terms of ERA, FIP, xFIP. Stretch the starting pitching innings down to 70-90 to get your 150 starter sample. Over the course of full seasons, Lopez, Ryan and Ober typically fall into that 60-100 range. They're not #1's. Lopez has been back end #2-ish. 

    Joe Ryan continues to evolve his repertoire and he's gotten truly excellent results in the first half. He's never had a good 2nd half in his career, and he's never qualified for a championship trophy (literally only missing it by 0.1 innings in 2023). Ryan's best season ever was 2024 where he pitched only 135 innings and ranked 55th in ERA for 156 starters with 70+ innings. 3 WAR doesn't get a top 30 pitchers in baseball title.

    Wonder if Bean will still argue if Ryan is a #1 pitcher LOL.   he is currently sitting at 4.3 WAR, the 12th highest of any pitcher.    

    On 7/28/2025 at 2:15 PM, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

    Wonder if Bean will still argue if Ryan is a #1 pitcher LOL.   he is currently sitting at 4.3 WAR, the 12th highest of any pitcher.    

    You know, I was going to post another blog... but you just reminded me why I don't visit this site anymore. Desperately clinging for a chance to bash somebody months later.

    On 8/2/2025 at 11:07 AM, bean5302 said:

    You know, I was going to post another blog... but you just reminded me why I don't visit this site anymore. Desperately clinging for a chance to bash somebody months later.

    Ryan is much more valuable now than he was viewed even earlier in the season.  Where there was a valid argument whether he was a #1 pitcher or not, Ryan has answered those questions.  Ultimately that is a good thing.   Of all the things that haven't gone the Twins way this season,  Ryan has done everything right.   

     




    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...