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    How Much Would the Twins Have to Spend to Prove They're Serious About 2027?

    Tom Pohlad has promised the Twins will increase payroll next season. The question is no longer whether Minnesota will spend more, but how much it will take for that promise to actually matter.

    Cody Christie
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    The Minnesota Twins have spent much of the last few years asking fans to believe in the future. Believe in the young players. Believe in the player development system. Believe that the next wave of prospects can eventually form the foundation of a sustainable contender. There is nothing wrong with believing in those things. At some point, though, ownership has to show it believes in them, too. Tom Pohlad has already said the Twins' 2027 payroll will increase. 

    "I'm not hoping—it will be higher," Pohlad said. "For us to accomplish the things that we want to accomplish, and be a consistently competitive team in the playoffs, and going deep, we have to make an investment into this team."

    That's a meaningful statement. It also creates a very simple question for the Twins heading into the offseason. How much higher?

    $30 Million Isn't Aggressive

    The easiest way to look at the situation is through the numbers. The Twins entered 2026 with an Opening Day payroll around $105 million, their lowest Opening Day figure since 2017. The trade deadline additions of A.J. Minter, Dean Kremer and Jeff Hoffman pushed the club's estimated payroll commitment to roughly $109 million for the season.

    So what happens if Minnesota adds $30 million this winter? The payroll reaches approximately $135 million. That would be meaningful compared to where the Twins are today. But it would not exactly qualify as an aggressive offseason. It would essentially take Minnesota back to where it was in 2025.

    The Twins entered that season with an Opening Day payroll estimated around $144.3 million. In other words, $30 million would represent an increase. But it wouldn't represent a major change in organizational spending. It would represent getting back to a level the Twins have already demonstrated they can reach.

    What About $60 Million?

    Now, we're talking about something different. Adding $60 million to a roughly $105 million baseline would put Minnesota around $165 million. That would bring the Twins back to the neighborhood of their record spending in 2023.

    Minnesota carried a payroll around $156 million on Opening Day in 2023 and finished the season around $160 million, depending on the accounting method used. That club won the American League Central and won a postseason series for the first time in over two decades. 

    That doesn't mean spending $160 million guarantees anything. It doesn't. But it would send a very different message. A $160 million-plus payroll would tell the fan base that the organization isn't simply replacing departing salaries or filling holes around a young roster. It is actively trying to build a team capable of competing at the highest level.

    That would also give Jeremy Zoll considerably more flexibility. The Twins don't need to spend $60 million on one player. In fact, that's probably not the best way to approach the roster. They could spread that money across multiple areas. A starting pitcher. A high-leverage reliever. A legitimate middle-of-the-order bat. A catcher. Bench depth.

    Suddenly, a roster with an intriguing young core starts looking much different.

    $80 Million Would Be a Statement

    Then there's the $80 million question. A $105 million payroll plus $80 million would put Minnesota around $185 million. That would be a franchise-level commitment. It would also put the Twins well above their 2023 spending and into a payroll range they haven't consistently approached.

    Would $185 million guarantee a championship? Of course not. Would it guarantee the Twins make the playoffs? No. But there is an important distinction between spending money and spending money intelligently.

    The Twins have plenty of young players who should occupy roster spots at relatively low salaries. Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Kaelen Culpepper, Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall and others could give the front office something every team wants: talented players who aren't yet expensive.

    That means Minnesota doesn't necessarily need to spend $185 million simply to have an expensive roster. It could use that money to address the areas where the current roster is weakest. That's what aggressive spending should look like. Not spending for the sake of spending. Spending to turn weaknesses into strengths.

    The Payroll Can't Be the Excuse Anymore

    This is where the conversation becomes bigger than a dollar amount. For years, payroll has been part of the Twins' explanation for why roster construction has to be creative. There have been legitimate reasons for those constraints.

    The uncertainty surrounding the local television situation played a role in the organization's payroll decisions. The Twins dropped from their franchise-record spending in 2023, and ownership publicly acknowledged that financial considerations were part of the decision.

    But that explanation can't carry the organization forever. The 2026 season provided an interesting case study. The Twins remained competitive deep into the season despite operating with one of baseball's lower payrolls. Then, at the trade deadline, ownership gave Zoll the flexibility to add A.J. Minter, Dean Kremer and Jeff Hoffman while taking on more than $8 million in prorated salary.

    That was important. It showed what can happen when the front office has financial flexibility. It also showed that the Twins aren't simply asking whether they can afford to add players. They're capable of making those additions when ownership gives them the room to do it.

    That makes 2027 different. There shouldn't be another surprise waiting around the corner. There shouldn't be a sudden need to cut payroll. There shouldn't be a repeat of the organization explaining why it can't pursue a player because the financial parameters are too restrictive.

    Pohlad has already told everyone the payroll will increase. Now the organization has to show what that means. A payroll increase that merely makes room for similar veteran scoop-ups as the ones they made last winter while retaining Joe Ryan, Pablo López and Trevor Larnach wouldn't be especially inspiring—though everyone should want those two hurlers to stick around. An increase that meaningfully changes what the team can do this winter is one that would probably, finally, make Pohlad flinch—but that's what needs to happen.


    How much will the Twins spend this winter? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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    Spotrack listed Contreras as a FA in the link that somebody provided.  But I agree, the Brewers will exercise that option. They aren't letting him go anywhere.  He's a vital piece of their success.  

    Buxton could very well be a Twin for the next 2 years and I'd be fine with that.  But I think it's time to start the youth movement and Byron could change his mind come next season's trade deadline.  And while he's still a decent CF it's probably time to move him to LF and let Jenkins/E-Rod play the majority of innings in CF.  If the Braves traded for him, he would most certainly move to LF/DH with Michael Harris remaining in CF.  The Twins would probably be wise to use him primarily as a DH with all the young OF they have.  

    The over-arching point is that the Twins can't keep running the same core back year after year.  They could get something useful for Joe Ryan.  Which teams are most interested?  What they get for Lewis, Larnach, Wallner, Ober and others is certainly debatable, but at some point we could call it addition by subtraction.   

    The free agents on the position player side don’t do anything for me. If I’m Tom P, I’m looking to extend some of these young guys and spend some money that way. Then I’ll turn my sites to relief and starting pitching. This club needs to focus on run prevention.

    4 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

    HarmonK03 asked what my plan was to make a Buxton and Ryan trade.  I've attached what I wrote after the bolded script.

    If we moved on from Buxton and Joe Ryan as the major trades, but others like Bell, Lewis, Larnach and Ober, it's hard to speculate what talent we would have brought back with those trades.  But it would open up the DH spot for someone like Yandy Diaz or Seiya Suzuki (who are both FA).  

    Off season priorities:

    Catcher-William Contreras.  1B-Jake Bauers.  A veteran SP-Nick Martinez or Sandy Alcantara.  A solid Closer-Ryan Helsley.  Add to this the influx of talent that we get from the trades and progression by a young core of Jenkins, Culpepper, Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall, E-Rod, and the young pitchers and while 2027 could be cloudy with the expected labor strife, you've got the makings of a team that can meet and exceed the low bar of contention in the A.L. Central.  

    So to try to pick up here with an answer...If the exercise is primarily how much the Twins should spend, and how do we use those dollars, I'm of a mind that spending does need to be increased but that bigger, broader changes need to be made.  It's time to fundamentally change this roster.  With Jenkins and E-Rod being a big part of the way forward, the Twins could simply just move Byron to LF/DH. 

    But we've been able to part with Killebrew and Carew in the past and it's time to get something for Buxton if he's willing to waive his no-trade clause.  If he won't, I'm fine with him in LF/DH.  Buxton and Pablo are very similar in that their value will immediately bounce back once they demonstrate they are healthy.  Joe Ryan has finished the season with a few starts, so there is not any serious doubt he's healthy...he is.  

    I'm hanging onto Lopez to begin the season as well as Buxton.  They need to rebuild value.  Ryan's value has taken a hit, but with a decent track record and a clean bill of health, he's our primary trade chip this winter.  I agree HarmonK03, the activity will be hot and heavy as soon as the World Series concludes.  The Twins need to be aggressive EARLY.  Waiting until the new CBA is completed will be far too late.  

    But it's difficult to speculate on what the return in trades for Ryan, Lewis, Ober, Larnach and others would be.  I'd expect the Twins to target young pitching, an upgrade at 1B from the minor leagues who is buried behind a solid, established major leaguer and maybe a serviceable Catcher.  I had mentioned that the Twins should go hard after FA Catcher William Contreras from the Brewers.  He's head and shoulders better than Jeffers and for the next 2 seasons would serve as a great bridge to Vahn Lackey.  At some point, they could share the Catcher position and ultimately, Contreras moves to 1B/DH.  Contreras is a top 3 hitting catcher.

    If I traded Joe Ryan, I'd look at Sandy Alcantara (31 y/o) for a 4 year contract or Nick Martinez/Nick Pivetta on a 2-3 year deal to replace Ryan in the rotation.  I hope this helps clarify my thoughts.  

    I liked your post overall. 

    Just two disagreements. Buxton retires a Twin if it was my call. It's just up to us to put a better team around him. 

    Contreras would be great. I'm just reluctant to spend our limited dollars on a catcher. 

    Besides my personal disagreements on two points. Both of those are justifiable. 

    15 hours ago, Fatbat said:

    Erod. If he would have been on Varsity this spring. He would not have been sliding into base getting injured with the Saints. 
    Varland, Hedrick, Lewis and a few others over the last few years.  They consistently keep Prospects in AAA as absolutely long as they can with options until they run out.  Then they lose guys without getting them a long runway in MLB. Rooker is a prime example. They also lost a couple seasons of Hoffman because he was out of options.  FO mismanagement. 

    The Twins definitely play games with service time, but your examples are not good. 

    Erod was injured at a couple points last summer when the Twins needed an MLB outfielder - he only played 70 games this year.  That's not manipulation.

    In 2023 Headrick broke camp with the Twins at age 25 after a 2022 season where he posted a 2.34 ERA in A+ and a 5+ ERA in AA, and in 2021 he was in rookie ball thru A. Not sure where the unnecessary delays were supposed to have happened. 

    Lewis was up when healthy and kept blowing up. He did not play an inning between 2020-21, and in 2022 he was with the Twins when his knee exploded twelve games into his MLB career. Not seeing the gamesmanship.

    But others, for sure. Jenkins was only a good hitter for the last month in AAA this summer, and he wasn't even available for large parts of the first half. But sitting on him to preserve his eligibility for rookie awards next year (and possible draft treats) was fairly transparent.  

     

    On 9/24/2026 at 11:26 AM, LastOnePicked said:

    I don't think this is an unpopular take, or even a bad one. Clearly, he was/is one of the better MLB catchers. I'm just trying to imagine I'm a GM. Am I getting the kinds of production that signal a market-competitive extension for Jeffers is wise? You'd need to offer him four years. What kind of player do you have in year three?

    I buy the slow recovery argument - I don't buy the idea that hearing his name bandied about in trades had any impact on his play whatsoever. That holds no water for me. Even if it was true, I don't want players whose on-field play is so easily put off by baseball dealings they can't control.

    I don’t think the trade thing was for the whole post trade deadline, but when I read in an interview he just wanted the deadline to be over with, I think does weigh on a player. He has wife, two young kids and would have to break from the norm and plan for all scenarios, now he did come out firing a bit post deadline but then team bottoms out. Tough final month or so for sure

    On 9/23/2026 at 2:40 PM, PuckettPond said:

    Payroll should be based on attendance since Twins attendance is the lowest in 20 years you have your answer. Fans get the team they deserve. Sorry if the truth hurts.

    It is based on attandence and revenue from the previouse season. this very sight indead sent out many articles about it a few years back. It works when fans attend games purchace merch etc... It seams reasonable to me if fans dont support the Twins, as most fans on here have vouched to not spend a dime on the team then revenue drops so does payroll. according to past published articles.

    Don't put forth to have a winning team is a "no-go" for me!  Besides:  a strike next year, can't already afford to go to games, can"t find a place to even watch your home team on TV (I have cable..harder to find...now you need all these streaming platforms), and you have the "haves and have not" team payrolls discrepancies.  Nice try MLB, meaning lose customer base, let alone future customer base!!!

    On 9/24/2026 at 7:48 PM, Mike Sixel said:

    That wall includes starting pitching after next year. This wouldn't be a problem, most likely, if the owner let falvey do his job.... Not that we wanted Tolle and Arias....

    Very good point.  I think you and I may have discussed the fact that 60% of the rotation would become free agents in 2028 a couple years ago.  This is not a problem that snuck up on them which makes it even more inexcusable.  One of Ryan / Lopez or Ober should have been dealt at peak value.  People talk about extending Ryan but the much more impactful move would have been to trade him.  It looks like they could have had gotten equal or better production for the next 6 years for far less money and added a very good middle IF prospect as well.

    For anyone who missed it .... This is a shining example of why the Brewers and Guardians put a good team on the field far more often than the Twins.   I would bet the Falvey told Tom Pohlad this was an incredibly bad strategic decision to do a 18o on a partially executed rebuild, ESPICIALLY WHILE LOWERING PAYROLL and Pohlad showed him the door.  

    It looks like smoke and mirrors to me.  Keep Ryan and others, declare we are a contender but spend almost nothing on rebuilding a gutted BP.  It's either deception or incompetence.

    40 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

     I would bet the Falvey told Tom Pohlad this was an incredibly bad strategic decision to do a 18o on a partially executed rebuild, ESPICIALLY WHILE LOWERING PAYROLL and Pohlad showed him the door.  

    Yep.  Falvey may have also seen the writing on the wall, that Tommy's "we're going to compete" pronouncement was going to lead to heads rolling when they didn't actually compete, and got out while he could.

    But yeah, billionaires don't take kindly to being told they are wrong.  

    5 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

    For what it’s worth…

    JFC. Which young players will sit in AAA so a mediocre veteran can play, because this class sucks?

    People still think this isn't about ownership, after all these years?

    39 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    JFC. Which young players will sit in AAA so a mediocre veteran can play, because this class sucks?

    People still think this isn't about ownership, after all these years?

    Why do I get the feeling the Twins are going to sign Jeffers through his mid 30s, bring back Josh Bell, and sign some back of the rotation pitcher for $10-12 million?

    49 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

    Why do I get the feeling the Twins are going to sign Jeffers through his mid 30s, bring back Josh Bell, and sign some back of the rotation pitcher for $10-12 million?

    Almost a certainty. Also, 2 RPs. 

    1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

    Why do I get the feeling the Twins are going to sign Jeffers through his mid 30s, bring back Josh Bell, and sign some back of the rotation pitcher for $10-12 million?

    Because they love to do the same thing and expect a different result.  They need to spend $30M or so for a good 1B and 2 good RPs.  Not sure what they will do about the C position.

    16 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

    Because they love to do the same thing and expect a different result.  They need to spend $30M or so for a good 1B and 2 good RPs.  Not sure what they will do about the C position.

    The Twins just refuse to take their medicine, MLR... It's frustrating to say the least. We don't have to look outside the division to see an example of a team that was historically bad 2 years ago now in the playoffs with a full lineup of players 26 years old and younger. 

    20 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

    The Twins just refuse to take their medicine, MLR... It's frustrating to say the least. We don't have to look outside the division to see an example of a team that was historically bad 2 years ago now in the playoffs with a full lineup of players 26 years old and younger. 

    That’s what’s so frustrating.  The White Sox example is staring them in the face and before that the Guardian showed them repeatedly how to manage assets.  The White Sox would not have been remotely close to the playoffs had sold when they were down.  Their top two players by WAR (Vargas & Meidroth) were acquired as prospects.  They produced 5.3 and 4.5 WAR.  The Twins did not have a single 4 WAR player.  The Twins only had one 3 WAR player.  They also got Teel and Montgomery by selling.

    If the White Sox example was not enough, Cleveland has been showing them how to do it for a couple decades. Hopefully, this season taught Tom Pohlad he should not be making these decisions and he hires a competent PBO.

    If you really want to scratch your head .... how did they get Ryan and Duran?  The level of incompetence was at an all-time high this past season.
     

    2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

    Why do I get the feeling the Twins are going to sign Jeffers through his mid 30s, bring back Josh Bell, and sign some back of the rotation pitcher for $10-12 million?

    We'd get a dozen articles praising Tommy for "putting his money where his mouth is."  

    1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

    We don't have to look outside the division to see an example of a team that was historically bad 2 years ago now in the playoffs with a full lineup of players 26 years old and younger. 

    That can't be right.  Everyone knows the best way to improve quickly is to "raise the floor" by signing old, washed vets.    




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