Have the Twins Been Successful Getting Creative in Trades?

As we look ahead to another “exciting Twins offseason,” it’s become increasingly apparent that the Twins’ brass will need to get creative amid payroll constraints. Just look at the Offseason Blueprints being generated all over Twins Daily as we speak. Derek Falvey and Co. have pulled off their fair share of creative trades, seeking to add to the current big league team even if it takes a big leaguer or two in return.

Funnily enough, under Falvey's watchful eye, the Twins have rarely sold over the offseason at all, seemingly preferring to swap their MLB talent for help today rather than prospects for tomorrow. Gio Urshela, by my count, was the only major leaguer to be traded for a prospect since 2017. The team has been trying to win, not stock up assets, leaning into its creativity to make things happen.

But, of course, that creativity needs to work. No team wins every trade, but competitive teams need to win more than they lose. It’s pretty straightforward when picking winners and losers when a team sends away MLB contributors from a position of strength to bring in other MLB contributors in a position of need. Below, I’ve listed every trade that could be considered an offseason challenge trade–MLB for MLB (occasionally prospects get added to the deals, but they have to have an MLB contract going each way)–over the offseason. 

Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. Performance isn’t considered if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the trade being discussed. Obviously, this analysis doesn’t include future performance, either. This information is accurate as of November 19th, 2024. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the complete picture isn’t available.

I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred. 

See the Yankees trade below for an example of why comparing statistics isn’t ideal. Although the Twins lost the trade by WAR, it cleared the salary owed to Josh Donaldson and gave them the room to sign Carlos Correa to his first Minnesota contract.

Without further ado, my subjective order is from best to worst.

3/13/22: Minnesota acquires Gio Urshela (551 PA, 119 OPS+, 3.1 bWAR), Gary Sanchez (471 PA, 88 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR) from New York (AL) for Josh Donaldson (666 PA, 90 OPS+, 2.3 bWAR), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (892 PA, 81 OPS+, 2.9 bWAR), Ben Rortvedt (79 PA, 28 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), +1.0 bWAR for Minnesota.
There’s a lot to unpack in this trade, primarily orchestrated to clear up salary room from 2022 to 2024 and be rid of Donaldson, who some reports suggest had worn out his welcome in Minnesota. Donaldson was a solid contributor for New York in 2022 but wore out his welcome and was waived before the end of 2023. Kiner-Falefa played two decent years in pinstripes. Rortvedt played minimally in New York due to injury. Urshela and Sanchez spent a year in Minnesota and filled the roles they were brought in for, but neither returned for 2023. Although both Urshela and Sanchez had contracts that offset some of Donaldson’s, that excess money helped bring in Correa before 2022 and 2023.

1/20/23: Minnesota acquires Pablo López* (379.1 IP, 110 ERA+, 5.8 bWAR), Jose Salas* (has not reached Minnesota), Byron Churio* (has not reached Minnesota) from Miami for Luis Arraez (765 PA, 122 OPS+, 5.0 bWAR), +0.8 bWAR for Minnesota.
López was tagged as the Opening Day starter after the trade that sent the batting champion Arraez to Miami. After four great starts and a four-year, $73 million extension, López finished seventh in the AL Cy Young. Churio and Salas were promising prospects many did not anticipate being included in the deal, though it’s questionable whether either will make it to the big leagues. Arraez won his second consecutive batting title and placed eighth in the 2023 NL MVP voting. He was traded to San Diego mid-season in 2024 and just won his third consecutive batting title.

2/9/20: Minnesota acquires Kenta Maeda (277.1 IP, 106 ERA+, 3.0 bWAR), Jair Camargo* (7 PA, -54 OPS+, -0.1 bWAR) from Los Angeles (NL) for Brusdar Graterol* (181 IP, 158 ERA+, 3.5 bWAR), Luke Raley (72 PA, 43 OPS+, -0.5 bWAR), -0.1 bWAR for Minnesota.
Maeda finished second in the 2020 Cy Young voting during the shortened season but struggled in 2021, had Tommy John surgery, and reestablished himself in 2023, though not without continued injury concerns. At the time of the trade, the Twins knew he may have elbow issues. Graterol has been a solid force in LA’s bullpen when healthy. Camargo has gotten a cup of coffee in MLB, and Raley was traded to Tampa. This trade also sent a 2nd round pick to LA.

3/12/22: Minnesota acquires Isiah Kiner-Falefa (did not reach Minnesota), Ronny Henriquez* (31.0 IP, 143 ERA+, 0.5 bWAR) from Texas for Mitch Garver (559 PA, 121 OPS+, 2.5 bWAR), -2.0 bWAR for Minnesota.
Coming out of the lockout, Minnesota made a move that killed two birds with one stone: got a return for the off-injured Garver and filled a hole at shortstop. Garver dealt with injuries in Texas but still hit well enough for mainly DH role. Kiner-Falefa was a Twin for one day before getting traded again. Henriquez,24, saw mild success out of the pen for the Twins in 2024 and could rack up frequent rider miles on the Green Line between St. Paul and Minnesota for the next few years.

4/7/22: Minnesota acquires Chris Paddack* (115.2 IP, 86 ERA+, 0.7 bWAR), Emilio Pagán (132.1 IP, 112 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR), Brayan Medina* (has not reached Minnesota) from San Diego for Taylor Rogers (41.1 IP, 87 ERA+, -0.2 bWAR), Brent Rooker (7 PA, -100 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), +2.0 bWAR for Minnesota.
This infamous trade sent away the Twins' top reliever in Rogers, who struggled in San Diego. Rooker, a depth outfielder, only registered seven plate appearances for San Diego but has blossomed into an All-Star in Oakland. Both were traded from San Diego at the 2022 deadline. In return, the team received Paddack, who had known elbow issues, pitched well in five starts, then underwent Tommy John. He returned as a bullpen piece down the stretch in 2023 and threw 88 innings at the back of the Twins rotation in 2024. Pagán largely struggled through 2022 as a high-leverage arm, but he posted a sub-3.00 ERA and led the bullpen in innings in 2023. Medina was released after three years of Rookie ball, and the Twins retained most of Rogers’ salary.

1/19/24: Minnesota acquires Anthony DeSclafani (did not play for Minnesota), Justin Topa* (2.1 IP, 999 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR), Gabriel Gonzalez* (has not reached Minnesota), Darren Bowen* (has not reached Minnesota) from Seattle for Jorge Polanco (469 PA, 93 OPS+, 1.4 bWAR), -1.2 bWAR for Minnesota.
This one’s a doozie. The Twins needed to free up payroll space and traded one of their longest-tenured players in Polanco. Seattle sent back starter Anthony DeSclafani–who missed the entire year with injury–and reliever Justin Topa–who missed all but a week of the season with injury. They also received prospects in the form of outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez (who received one rouge listing on a top-100 prospect list) and pitcher Darren Bowen. For his part, Polanco struggled as well. No real winners in this trade unless Gonzalez turns into something. At least the excess space salary got turned into Carlos Santana. 

2/11/24: Minnesota acquires Steven Okert (35.1 IP, 82 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR) from Miami for Nick Gordon (275 PA, 68 OPS+, -1.7 bWAR), +1.4 bWAR for Minnesota.
Nick Gordon didn’t have a place on the 2024 Twins after a 2023 lost to injury, and he was out of options. He was flipped to Miami for Okert in the hopes the lefty could cover some middle innings. Okert’s highs were “fine,” and his lows were “bad.” Gordon was all “bad.” The Twins won the WAR, but both teams lost.

11/18/22: Minnesota acquires Alejandro Hidalgo* (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles (AL) for Gio Urshela (130 PA, 84 OPS+, 0.2 bWAR), -0.2 bWAR for Minnesota.
Urshela became a fan-favorite and consistent performer in his year in Minnesota but would have likely been non-tendered in arbitration to prevent a perceived logjam on the Minnesota infield. He played all around the infield and had been moderately productive for the Angels before a broken pelvis ended his season. Hidalgo is still 20 years old but just lost an entire season to injury.

2/5/21: Minnesota acquires Shaun Anderson (8.2 IP, 47 ERA+, -0.5 bWAR) from San Francisco for LaMonte Wade, Jr.* (1552 PA, 115 OPS+, 6.0 bWAR), -4.4 bWAR for Minnesota.
In retrospect, this was an unforced error. The Twins had two similar options for their fourth outfielder going into 2021—Wade and Jake Cave—and they elected to trade Wade, who, when healthy, has been a consistent presence in the Giants lineup for several years. Cave struggled over his last two years in Minnesota, and Anderson, the AAAA lottery ticket they got for Wade, was out of the organization before the year ended.

In total, Minnesota has lost 2.7 WAR in these trades–under this methodology for counting WAR at least. They certainly haven’t hit a home run on the whole, but there’s only been one true, unmitigated blunder–the Wade trade. Even the Rooker trade returned decent pitching, and Rooker bounced around before becoming the guy he is today.

What do you think? How much confidence do you have in the Twins pulling off some creative big-leaguer-for-big-leaguer trades this offseason?