Giving Brian Dozier's Defense Attention

Certainly Dozier’s new contract goes beyond his defense. As Ryan said, Dozier has been able to pop a few over the fence -- where his first-half totals landed him a Home Run Derby -- as well as steal bases (and baserunning in general). Beyond that, he also creates chemistry in the clubhouse and has a mane that just won’t quit. But Dozier’s defense seems appropriately appreciated for what it is: visually appealing but occasionally flawed.

So let’s give Dozier’s defense some attention here.

Let us start with the understanding that defense is the final frontier when it comes to finding a baseline of what constitutes universally good defense. Some will never be swayed from the trusty eye test while others will use a litany of defensive metrics to construct a profile. The problem with the former is that a human cannot watch, inventory and compare every play over the course of a season or multiple seasons. The issue with the latter is that several different systems with various methodologies are being used to measure a complex series of events.

Even Bill James, the OG of metrics, recently threw shade at BIS’ defensive stats as well as other advanced fielding stats. “Fielding Statistics failed because they created no organized universe of data, thus no solid footing on which Direct-Inference Analysis could be conducted,” James wrote in January on his website, BillJamesOnline.net which houses the Plus/Minus system. In laymen’s terms, the common language of OPS+ is that 100 is average and anything above or below it is good or bad. Would saying Dozier was a -4.4 UZR/150 second baseman in 2014 mean something without context? Or that he had 0 Defensive Runs Saved? Or that he was a -16 in the Plus/Minus? These are three stats attempting to measure the same thing but are spoken in three different languages.

The advanced metrics are good. They help inventory numerous plays that the mind will never be able to recall without a layer of bias. Where the system starts to be flawed is in attempting to compare one player against other players of that position as not all plays are created equal. Take this Dozier play for example. In it, the runner at second is going on the play and it is Dozier’s responsibility to cover the base. The batter manages to hit behind the runner at which point Dozier quickly changes directions, lunges back at the ball and makes the play to first.

http://i.imgur.com/ZneGQ3S.gif

How exactly is that type of play measured across the league’s stash of second basemen? On one hand a faster second baseman might have overrun that play because he would be covering the bag. On the other, a different second baseman might not have moved a muscle and made a routine at ‘em ball. How is there a way to appropriately weigh this play?

There is no perfect method or one statistic that will be a magic bullet for a player’s defense. In determining where Dozier’s defense stands, it is best to take a little bit of everything into account.

Mark Simon at ESPN Stats & Info forwarded some Baseball Info Solution raw data that would help add flavor to Dozier’s defensive abilities. According to Simon, Dozier finished the year with the highest “good fielding plays” by a second baseman with 74. That is one of these types of plays in which Dozier ranges to his left on a slow bounder and manages a quick release with enough on it to Mauer first:

http://i.imgur.com/IpUTw1G.gif

In that particular play, you see Dozier demonstrating his quick first step, range and rapid-fire release. Within Inside Edge’s statistical warehouse at Fangraphs.com that buckets these plays into categories ranging from “Almost Certain” to “Remote”, that particular play constituted an “Even Chance” or a 50/50 shot another second baseman would have made that same play.

In addition to making the most “good fielding plays” for second basemen in 2014, Dozier also committed the most “miscues and errors” in the group as well (24). In these circumstances, Errors, as everyone knows, are made-up stats determined by a dictator in the press box while Miscues are plays that the dictators in the press box miss because they were refilling their soda at that time or the player missed a double-play opportunity, slipped or was temporarily blinded by the sun. Like these two on one play:

http://i.imgur.com/BBcxEED.gif

Or this one:

http://i.imgur.com/YWGtrvg.gif

Dozier led all second basemen with nine throwing errors in 2014, most of which appear to be of the rushed delivery variety -- trying to do too much. Dozier’s ownership of the most “good fielding plays” and “miscues” is a byproduct of simply having one of the highest number of opportunities. According to ESPN/TruMedia’s data, the Twins’ pitching staff allowed 440 ground balls in play to the right-center (second base) zone, the third-most in the majors.

Meanwhile, Inside Edge’s Kenny Kendrena provided some additional data regarding Dozier’s fielding tendencies. According to their stuff, Dozier was 10th among all second baseman at converting “hard-hit” balls into outs. These are the low-flying missiles that leave the infield in a hurry.

http://i.imgur.com/CA5Ohzh.gif

Thanks to his pitch-to-impact staff, Dozier was on the receiving end of 31 of these balls, second only to Diamondbacks’ Aaron Hill (40). While he did not make all the “Almost Certain” plays (11 of 12), he did lead in turning most “Unlikely” plays into outs (3 of 4).

In addition to handling hard-hit balls well, Kendrena revealed that their data shows that Dozier also was one of the most adept second basemen at making plays backhanded. Not plays to his backhand-side, actually having his glove turned around. Like this:

http://i.imgur.com/p3q16Pb.gif

And this:

http://i.imgur.com/crQFWgB.gif

Only Boston’s Dustin Pedroia was scored as better at plays in this manner than Dozier in 2014. This was the reason Dozier’s Plus/Minus while ranging to his right was strong.

Putting all of these parts into a whole paints the picture of a solid but not spectacular defender. Based on Inside Edge’s video scouts, Dozier has the ability to make plays that were considered “Unlikely”. BIS’s data suggested the same thing. He has flash and leaves nothing on the table when it comes to stopping a moving baseball. There is no question that the effort -- the kind that make pitchers, coaches and eye-testers happy -- is there. But at the same time he also created several mistakes when trying to do too much.

Dozier’s defense probably qualifies as above average. Not elite. Not yet. Is that enough attention?