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    Faltering Romero Exposes Flaw in Falvey's Offseason


    Ted Schwerzler
    Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

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    Fernando Romero was talked up as having electric stuff and potentially being a real weapon out of Rocco Baldelli’s pen. Unfortunately, when the rubber met the road, it turned out Romero required more seasoning, and he was optioned to Triple-A last night. That isn’t the problem, but the fallout is.

    Across 9 2/3 IP down in Fort Myers, Romero coughed up 10 runs (nine earned) and fanned seven while walking eight. He started out strong, but really faltered down the stretch. With Opening Day firmly in focus, the decision had to be made. Romero was going to need more time settling into his new role for Rochester.

    While it’s more than fair to suggest keeping Romero stretched out as a starter would’ve made sense, the consensus could be that he simply isn’t cut out for it. Regardless of the feelings from 1 Twins Way, the reality is that Romero is now going to upstate New York and will work a couple times a week throwing something like 20 pitches per outing. It will groom him for the role outlined for him in 2019 but doesn’t do much to help development as a rotation factor in the years ahead. We now know Romero’s path, and it was written on the wall for a matter of days now, but this is where Minnesota’s offseason starts to fall apart.

    Derek Falvey and Thad Levine failed to address pitching in almost any capacity. Blake Parker and Martin Perez have the chops to be nice additions, but they do little to raise the overall water level of the group, and don’t enhance depth at all. Going into spring training, Romero was viewed as (and talked about from team officials) as a key cog in this pitching staff. The minute that didn’t happen, things start to crumble. Add in the fact that Addison Reed hasn’t looked good at all, is now hurt with a trip to the IL possible, and things get rather bleak quick.

    Non-roster invitees Ryne Harper and Mike Morin are the two biggest names left in camp vying for one bullpen spot. It’s commendable that both have seized their opportunity, but them factoring onto an Opening Day roster that should have a divisional opportunity in front of them is a result of poor planning.

    Harper has displayed a Bugs Bunny curveball but he’s a near-30-year-old career minor leaguer. He posted a 5.19 ERA at Triple-A Rochester last season, and while the strikeout and walk rates have both been great on the farm, no one has ever deemed it worthy of a callup. Morin, on the other hand, has 186 major league appearances to his credit, most of them coming with the Angels.

    Neither option, Harper or Morin, is at fault for this. If nothing else, they’re doing everything in their power to be the solution to an organizational problem. By relying solely on the emergence of Romero, or the breakout of Matt Magill, Minnesota’s brass balked at opportunities to sign Joakim Soria, Kelvin Herrera, Brad Brach, Adam Ottavino, or even Craig Kimbrel. Martin Perez could’ve been added with another starter, allowing the “loser” to go to the pen. Any number of options could’ve been explored, but the suggestion was that we have this figured out.

    Maybe a handful of months from now we’ll look back on this as much ado about nothing. Romero could figure things out quickly at Triple A, come up and immediately be the weapon he was billed as. Maybe Harper or Morin will stick, and the front office will look great for their conviction. The flip side, however, is that the already non-existent depth is being exposed before Opening Day, and we know more names are going to be called upon.

    Paying relievers, and pitchers in general, is a fickle business practice. Good teams don’t let the elite pitchers get away and cashing in on high quality relievers before they go belly up is a smart practice. Playing in the minefield of free agency for these types is dicey, but unless you have a reliable stable of your own, targeting strong depth that pushes everyone else down a rung makes a ton of sense.

    The expectation for this club should be, and will remain, that the lineup will hit. Production 1-9 from this group should be plenty to win games on a nightly basis. Where they might lose the credibility comes in the form of trust placed on a suspect pitching staff serving up many more questions than answers. Right now, the front office believes in depth arms, I’m not ready to support them in that though. Here’s to hoping it’s this blogger with egg on his face.


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    Featured Comments

    In other reliever news, the Twins released Tim Collins on Friday, who was promptly signed to a MLB deal by the Cubs.

     

    To make room for Collins, the Cubs designated ex-Twin Brian Duensing.

     

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/cubs-sign-tim-collins-designate-brian-duensing.html

    Maybe more than this, I wonder what they were thinking about Fernando Rodney, who wasn't pitching that badly and for whom they got quite a bit less in trade last season than they did for Pressly. Not sure the Rodney Experience wouldn't be more beneficial than one additional stockpiled prospect at this point.

     

    I wish that, if Romero's going to go back to Rochester, they'd let him get back into the rhythm of his old role rather than settling into a new one.

    Rodney blew 6 of 31 save opps. That’s almost 20%. And while that is technically in line with his career save percentage, it really isn’t. The first few years of his career he wasn’t a closer. So, what shows up up as blown saves are “blown holds”. Like I said, the 9th inning is different. There are different standards. Just eyeballing Rodney’s year by years, it looks like his save percentage when he was actually the closer is upwards of 90%. Which would make 80% pretty bad.

     

    I won't criticize the FO for not being aggressive trying to build a bullpen this year.  They TRIED last year with some veteran signings and it just did not work out because bullpen arms are so streaky from year to year.  I do not feel the need to criticize this aspect of the offseason because relievers to me are a crapshoot 90% of the time.

     

    That being said, what is wrong with the criticism here?  The bullpen was not good last year and they did not take a whole lot of action.  You said you don't criticize the FO.  Is it your policy to just give them a pass?  While I am not interested in this discussion I actually like the passion and I think good points have been made.  It is good reading to me. What is the point of pouring cold water on the discussion?  It's hot stove talk.  Let if live and try not to let it irritate you so much.

    I am not irritated.  That is my point.

     

    I think the FO knows a LOT more than the posters here do about what they have and what direction they want to go. 

     

    In other reliever news, the Twins released Tim Collins on Friday, who was promptly signed to a MLB deal by the Cubs.

    To make room for Collins, the Cubs designated ex-Twin Brian Duensing.

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/cubs-sign-tim-collins-designate-brian-duensing.html

    Just like making a trade...oh wait, wrong context.  

     

    It is at times like these - with all the bullpen angst - that makes the miss on Tyler Jay hurt all the more.  He could, or probably SHOULD have been someone that could be helping the Twins right now.

    Yeah, I remember (or mis-remember) the dialogue as being he's a risky choice for a starter, but at least he'll be a high quality reliever.

    ...still waiting...

     

    Overpay??

    They stole Pressly.

    Nope. It will turn out to be an excellent trade for us. 2 solid prospects for a little over a year of a relief pitcher. If you don't make that trade, what trade do you make at the deadline?

    Edited by howieramone2

     

    Nope. It will turn out to be an excellent trade for us. 2 solid prospects for a little over a year of a relief pitcher. If you don't make that trade, what trade do you make at the deadline?

    ...the other 4 trades we made around the 2018 deadline? The ones that didn't involve 2019 assets?

     

    I am not irritated.  That is my point.

     

    I think the FO knows a LOT more than the posters here do about what they have and what direction they want to go. 

    Doesn't mean they were able to execute a plan, doesn't mean they are right

     

    ...the other 4 trades we made around the 2018 deadline? The ones that didn't involve 2019 assets?

    What's your point? Pressly brought the best return. Are you saying we should turn down the best deal and be content only with lesser deals? Also, no way in the world we were going to extend a relief pitcher. We have bigger fish to fry. The Astros are or will be right up against the luxury tax. Take a look at who they will be losing after next season. No way they can kept them all if they extend relief pitchers.

     

    What's your point? Pressly brought the best return. Are you saying we should turn down the best deal and be content only with lesser deals? Also, no way in the world we were going to extend a relief pitcher. We have bigger fish to fry. The Astros are or will be right up against the luxury tax. Take a look at who they will be losing after next season. No way they can kept them all if they extend relief pitchers.

     

    In the mean time, they keep winning championships, rather than waiting for the future.

     

    What's your point? Pressly brought the best return. Are you saying we should turn down the best deal and be content only with lesser deals? Also, no way in the world we were going to extend a relief pitcher. We have bigger fish to fry. The Astros are or will be right up against the luxury tax. Take a look at who they will be losing after next season. No way they can kept them all if they extend relief pitchers.

    It's not clear that Pressly brought the best return -- both TD and MLB ranked Duran from Arizona notably ahead of the other prospects we acquired at the deadline, Sickels gave Maciel from Arizona the same letter grade as the two from Houston, etc.

     

    But even if you believe he did, he only brought that return *because he wasn't a two-month rental*. It wasn't a traditional deadline deal, so your rhetorical question "If you don't make that trade, what trade do you make at the deadline?" makes no sense. Trading him impacted our 2019 chances, as well as 2018, regardless of whether we extended him. Adding a dominant reliever to this year's Twins pen for less than $3 mil salary would be pretty great. There's a reason why most deadline deals don't involve trading good cheap assets from next year's team.

     

     

    The Astros are or will be right up against the luxury tax. Take a look at who they will be losing after next season. No way they can kept them all if they extend relief pitchers.

    The Astros are still $17 mil under the threshold yet this year. Cole is a FA after this season, but they'll shed $40 mil in salaries after this season too, and the threshold goes up, which could put them at $60 mil under the threshold after this season. After 2020, Springer is a free agent too, but they'll be shedding $50 mil at that time too. And the threshold isn't even close to any kind of hard cap -- the penalties for simply exceeding the threshold aren't that severe, unless you go way over ($40+ mil) or stay over for multiple years.

     

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KggX-IVrw6TywbOR6OIooQyxAY1MpTlnq88PqnNkuWQ/pubhtml

     

    They can easily sign a few relievers to Pressly-like extensions for $6-8 mil a year, and still have room to re-sign Cole or Springer or find replacements.

     

    It's not clear that Pressly brought the best return -- both TD and MLB ranked Duran from Arizona notably ahead of the other prospects we acquired at the deadline, Sickels gave Maciel from Arizona the same letter grade as the two from Houston, etc.

     

    But even if you believe he did, he only brought that return *because he wasn't a two-month rental*. It wasn't a traditional deadline deal, so your rhetorical question "If you don't make that trade, what trade do you make at the deadline?" makes no sense. Trading him impacted our 2019 chances, as well as 2018, regardless of whether we extended him. Adding a dominant reliever to this year's Twins pen for less than $3 mil salary would be pretty great. There's a reason why most deadline deals don't involve trading good cheap assets from next year's team.

     

     

    The Astros are still $17 mil under the threshold yet this year. Cole is a FA after this season, but they'll shed $40 mil in salaries after this season too, and the threshold goes up, which could put them at $60 mil under the threshold after this season. After 2020, Springer is a free agent too, but they'll be shedding $50 mil at that time too. And the threshold isn't even close to any kind of hard cap -- the penalties for simply exceeding the threshold aren't that severe, unless you go way over ($40+ mil) or stay over for multiple years.

     

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KggX-IVrw6TywbOR6OIooQyxAY1MpTlnq88PqnNkuWQ/pubhtml

     

    They can easily sign a few relievers to Pressly-like extensions for $6-8 mil a year, and still have room to re-sign Cole or Springer or find replacements.

    The Cubbies and Red Sox said no mas due to luxury penalties. Houston most likely will be one of the next.   Also, Falvey told all of us on Inside Twins, that was the best deal and it was too good to pass up. You really think those who rate prospects are always going to agree? I you don't make that trade, what trade do you make at the deadline? 

    Edited by howieramone2

     

    The Cubbies and Red Sox said no mas due to luxury penalties. Houston most likely will be one of the next.  

    The Red Sox are already $30 mil above the threshold, or in other words, $47 mil ahead of Houston. The Cubs are $16 mil above the threshold too, $33 mil ahead of Houston. Houston's only in 7th place in luxury tax payroll, and there's a big gap between 3rd and 4th place.

     

    Also note the Astros payroll already has a bunch of relievers earning $4-8 mil on short term contracts in addition to Pressly -- if any of them were extended or replaced at those prices, it wouldn't actually increase their luxury tax liabilities above 2019 levels either.

     

    The Astros aren't even close to a spot where a contract like Pressly's would have serious luxury tax implications.

     

     

    Also, Falvey told all of us on Inside Twins, that was the best deal and it was too good to pass up. You really think those who rate prospects are always going to agree? I you don't make that trade, what trade do you make at the deadline? 

    Obviously Falvey is going to say it was too good to pass up, because he didn't pass it up. What else is he supposed to say?

     

    It may even have been a solid prospect return for a 2019 asset, but it's still costing the Twins in 2019. Think about it this way: if the Twins could flip those two prospects today for a dominant reliever making under $3 mil in 2019, you'd also have to consider that pretty strongly, no? We could use that player right now, and if things go south, we could still flip him at the 2019 deadline (assuming we didn't extend him affordably ourselves).

     

    I think that illustrates the cost of this deal to the Twins pretty well. And unlike the other prospects we acquired at the 2018 deadline, those two Houston prospects will have to make up this 2019 cost for this deal to turn out well.

     

    What's your point? Pressly brought the best return. Are you saying we should turn down the best deal and be content only with lesser deals? Also, no way in the world we were going to extend a relief pitcher. We have bigger fish to fry. The Astros are or will be right up against the luxury tax. Take a look at who they will be losing after next season. No way they can kept them all if they extend relief pitchers.

    Ignoring the fact Spycake has proven your claim about Houston's payroll to be false...what, pray tell, does Houston's payroll have to do with the Twins, and/or the Pressly trade??

    What's your point? Pressly brought the best return. Are you saying we should turn down the best deal and be content only with lesser deals? Also, no way in the world we were going to extend a relief pitcher. We have bigger fish to fry. The Astros are or will be right up against the luxury tax. Take a look at who they will be losing after next season. No way they can kept them all if they extend relief pitchers.

    I think the point is Pressly would be the best reliever on the Twins, with the possible exception of Rogers, right now. Will it turn out to be a good trade for the Twins? There is good chance that will happen. But right now, the Twins sure could use a dominant late inning reliever. Maybe all the guys being counted on will come thru with productive years. Maybe if they don't, Romero or someone else will come up and be dominant.

     

    The problem is right now, Pressly would look pretty darn good in the Twins bullpen. There is certainly nothing wrong with people pointing that out.

     

    I think the point is Pressly would be the best reliever on the Twins, with the possible exception of Rogers, right now. Will it turn out to be a good trade for the Twins? There is good chance that will happen. But right now, the Twins sure could use a dominant late inning reliever. Maybe all the guys being counted on will come thru with productive years. Maybe if they don't, Romero or someone else will come up and be dominant.

    The problem is right now, Pressly would look pretty darn good in the Twins bullpen. There is certainly nothing wrong with people pointing that out.

     

    even if Romero comes up and is great, Pressley would still be good to have on the team.

     

    I'm not sure there is a "good chance" that it will work, what are the odds of either player contributing even 1 WAR in any given season?




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