DET 5, MIN 3: Is There Anything Left?

TheLeviathan · August 11, 2018

Keep in mind, baseball is a business

I don't think Ervin needs forgiveness. He also doesn't need a pedestal. I wish he would've remembered this part of your post. Along with quite a few others around here.

Vikings start tonight. So for those of you struggling to balance fandom vs. sports as a business....well, we get to be hopeful anew with our football team again. At least until they rip our hearts out Temple of Doom style again about January.

Tom Froemming · August 11, 2018

Okay, I'm out for real this time. I'm giving up on this thread like it's 10 games back in the standings.

Now THAT is funny

Hosken Bombo Disco · August 11, 2018

Who can possibly argue with the statement, "The pieces aren't there"?

I can, and will again!

April/May/June was ugly, and the pieces weren't there.

But once July rolled around, we had:

Polanco returning from suspension;
Santana returning from injury
Sano and Buxton to recall from the minors
Dozier's half season surge to hope for

The pieces were there. Basically the same team that made the surge last year, slightly different bullpen. The front office could have done a "light sell" of Pressly and Lynn and would have been praised just the same.

Instead, they pulled the plug and are rightfully getting raked across the coals--not so much on Twins Daily where the loudest posters seem to be on board with the sell off, but in the community in particular, the sell off doesn't seem as popular.

Again, heading into July, same lineup as last season. Same players coming back. Pieces were there.

bighat · August 11, 2018

But Santana cannot keep his end of the bargain, can he? If he cannot walk his talk, he should shut up.

He sucks. And he has fulifilled about 1.5 years of his 3 year contact.

And he is keeping worthy kids in the minors from getting MLB $. I'd rather see Romero take over his starts, but that's me....

Woah man, take it easy on Santana. He was arguably the main reason the Twins made the post-season last year. I think he more than made up for his injuries/suspension with an amazing run last year as a true ace in a tough American League.

"He sucks"? Not cool.

Hosken Bombo Disco · August 11, 2018

I don't see how you can possibly reframe "They gave up on us" as anything other than placing blame on them.

I think what people will come to realize is that these guys are just another front office. There is nothing special about them. They are new to this, and full of ideas, ideas that probably aren't much different that other front office ideas. They want the public to withhold judgment on them until some date far in the future, after they have built their "sustainable, championship caliber" organization, which will be a date of their choosing, which will be after half of us here are dead, I suppose.

And if they are looking to sell expiring contracts of favorite players at every deadline, it's going to be a long, long road for everyone.

...

And what really bugs me about this (and about 18 other threads on this forum right now) is that a bunch of posters who are usually rational, data-driven posters who provide good justifications for their opinions, have resorted to some absolute nonsense over the last few weeks.

...

You are speaking as someone who is following the Twins, much like the national writers. I'm speaking as a fan. I wanted to see how this season unfolded with our key pieces coming back. Seven games back was a daunting challenge, but doable. It has been done. It will be done again.

TheLeviathan · August 11, 2018

You are speaking as someone who is following the Twins, much like the national writers. I'm speaking as a fan. I wanted to see how this season unfolded with our key pieces coming back. Seven games back was a daunting challenge, but doable. It has been done. It will be done again.

The front office would be unwise to act like a fan. This paragraph is exactly the problem.

Be disappointed as a fan, but then please take into consideration what the FO is tasked with and the best, data-driven, realistic decision they have available to them. They made that decision and we should be happy about that, even if it stings a little.

Constantly posting "there was a chance" sounds like Lloyd Christmas. I'd like to think we're all happy our FO isn't making decisions like him.

USAFChief · August 11, 2018

The front office would be unwise to act like a fan. This paragraph is exactly the problem.

Be disappointed as a fan, but then please take into consideration what the FO is tasked with and the best, data-driven, realistic decision they have available to them. They made that decision and we should be happy about that, even if it stings a little.

Constantly posting "there was a chance" sounds like Lloyd Christmas. I'd like to think we're all happy our FO isn't making decisions like him.

I’m not going to be happy about it, no matter how many times you tell me to be happy about it. A baseball season, to me, isn’t something to be tossed into the trash can so lightly. We only get to enjoy one per year.

And for the record, You are vastly overstating the impossibility that a baseball team can come back from a half dozen games down in July. It’s been done before, it’ll be done again.

TheLeviathan · August 12, 2018

No one is asking you to be happy. But you are being asked to accept reality. And to stop trolling every damn thread with your "So you're saying there's a chance!" logic and "woe is us!" regret over a lost season.

So no, go ahead and be unhappy. Just stop with all this. Please.

And here's a little fun fact: those of us who have accepted that the FO did the right thing....we're not "happy" either. I was all about adding Darvish this offseason. I can show you where I drafted Byron Buxton in fantasy drafts this year and you'll have zero surprise why I'm not having a good year. I was invested in this team contending. I predicted playoffs before the season.

But, unfortunately, reality didn't match my hopes. Going on hoping against all data and probability may sound good as a fan, but it doesn't as a decision maker in a business.

Edited August 12, 2018 by TheLeviathan

jimmer · August 12, 2018

No one is asking you to be happy. But you are being asked to accept reality. And to stop trolling every damn thread with your "So you're saying there's a chance!" logic and "woe is us!" regret over a lost season.

So no, go ahead and be unhappy. Just stop with all this. Please.

And here's a little fun fact: those of us who have accepted that the FO did the right thing....we're not "happy" either. I was all about adding Darvish this offseason. I can show you where I drafted Byron Buxton in fantasy drafts this year and you'll have zero surprise why I'm not having a good year. I was invested in this team contending. I predicted playoffs before the season.

But, unfortunately, reality didn't match my hopes. Going on hoping against all data and probability may sound good as a fan, but it doesn't as a decision maker in a business.

I like this post a lot. Sums my thoughts up too...other than expecting this team to be contending. I figured we'd lose more games this year than last year and miss the playoffs.

Riverbrian · August 12, 2018

You're right that the organization and the fans aren't entitled to a debt of gratitude from Ervin. Although I'd have a higher opinion of him if he was extremely careful with his words in light of his own damaging past actions.

Bird, You know that I respect you. I think you are very intelligent and you have earned that respect. I also respect Tom, and a large percentage of posters here for the same reasons.

But... How perfect do you want your ball players to be?

We Most of us want them to be elite baseball players competing against the best baseball players in the world and if they are not we call for their dismissal. But even that isn't good enough.

On top of that, they need to be accomplished at interviews, they can't make a mistake answering with no preparation for the upcoming question because the guy with the microphone, just thought to ask it.

Nuance will never be possible, when the demand is to be concise and that means words must be chosen carefully, and I mean carefully without hesitation once the interviewer stops asking the question.

They are asked their opinions on big picture subjects even though they are not invited into the big picture room, and in a lot of cases they are asked to be flawless in what is a 2nd language, while the majority of them are under the age of 30 and less worldly-wise than you and I.

We Most of us demand that they are fierce competitors on the field but immediately composed afterwards. Ervin can't express disappointment, when he probably wants to win worse than Chief wants him to win. And, If you stuck a microphone in Chief's face, I wonder if he would consult his PR handbook first.

They can't tweet when they are 15 years old, without some hypocrite dragging it out to set the masses off. They need to give back to the community by starting charities. They have to shake hands and kiss all the babies.

We Most of us have all worked with people (perhaps a majority of the people we work with) who don't care about the big picture while they are complaining because someone next to them got a new stapler. That's the real world and I like to imagine that baseball players are also human just like the stapler complainers.

All I can do is ask the question. How perfect do you want them to be? And how perfect would you be under the same circumstances.

I would fail miserably and I'm a great guy!

Tom Froemming · August 12, 2018

We Most of us want them to be elite baseball players competing against the best baseball players in the world and if they are not we call for their dismissal. But even that isn't good enough.

HA! I see what you did there, lol

Hosken Bombo Disco · August 12, 2018

... you are being asked to accept reality. And to stop trolling every damn thread with your "So you're saying there's a chance!" logic and "woe is us!" regret over a lost season. ...

"Going on hoping against all data and probability"

I'm not trolling, and not singling you out, I just genuinely have no idea what to do with comments like this. I suppose I could let them go unanswered, but answering them could also provide an educating opportunity too, for people who just aren't aware or are new to following baseball. Who the hell knows. Most important to me is I don't want fans to think comebacks don't happen or that pennant races can't be exciting.

2015: Texas Rangers were 8.0 GB in division on July 27, third place in West, behind the Twins in the Wild Card, went ahead and traded for Cole Hamels, won division.

2009: Minnesota Twins were 7.0 GB trailing Detroit in September.

2007: Colorado Rockies epic win streak.

We don't see this sort of thing every season, but really, the examples are numerous.

Did the Twins have a chance? Yeah, of course they did.

Edited August 12, 2018 by Hosken Bombo Disco

Riverbrian · August 12, 2018

MONDAY

Wife: How was work today Honey?

Husband: I had a blast. Josh was digging through his desk and found some bottle rockets from like 3 years ago. We went out back and shot them off at lunch. They were so old and unpredictable. Some of them didn't explode and some of them went off immediately after lighting it. I hit a squirrel with one of them.

Wife: You did that at work?

Husband: Yes... Umm... At lunch.

Wife: What were you thinking... Did your boss know?

Husband: We told him about it... he was wondering why we were laughing.

Wife: Oh that's great. How Stupid can you be?

Husband: He didn't care... We are OK... Everyone is OK... Besides the squirrel... he kinda limped off.

Wife: You gotta quit being so stupid. Be a professional... Care what people think of you!!! God you are an idiot.

TUESDAY

Wife: How was work today Honey?

Husband: We wrapped up the Brunswick Bowling Ball Account... High Five!!!. I'm getting a nice commission check on that one... Looks like we can afford that trip to Jamaica.

Wife: That's fantastic.

Husband: Yeah... I worked for a month on that account. I must have had about 15 lunches and meetings with Andrea just to get that one closed.

Wife: Who's Andrea?

Husband: She the director of

Wife: What does she look like?

Husband: She's umm... I don't know... She's

Wife: Yeah I bet she is.

WEDNESDAY

Wife: Hi Honey... How was work today.

Husband: Fine

Wife: Are you reading from a piece of paper.

Husband: Yeah... I got this from the new PR guy that I hired to help me with the answers to your questions.

Wife: What?

Husband: Yeah... I used the money from the commission check and hired a PR guy. You are always getting mad at me.

Wife: That money was for Jamaica!

Husband: Hold on... He gave me an answer for that one. Hold on... I might have left it in the car. I'll be right back.

KirbyDome89 · August 12, 2018

But he didn't acknowledge any of those things. He chose to only acknowledge the side of the coin that points the finger at the FO.

Blaming the FO for selling at 10 games back is just as unreasonable as blaming Santana for his injury timeline.

Again, I don't necessarily agree with Tom, because I don't expect a guy to use ration over emotion when talking about his friend, but I can see where Tom is coming from, absolutely.

The question was about his feelings regarding Rodney et al leaving. In Erv's mind they still had a chance for the division, so of course he's upset that they sold. Blaming the FO for falling 10 games under .500 is very different than blaming them for selling when you believe there's still a chance. That nuance is being ignored by hardline stances, which I'm not saying you're taking here.

I don't think it's a great look for Erv to say those things, but I don't mind him being candid. I can understand not liking the comments, but calling for his release is going too far IMO.

Edited August 12, 2018 by KirbyDome89

KirbyDome89 · August 12, 2018

You're right that the organization and the fans aren't entitled to a debt of gratitude from Ervin. Although I'd have a higher opinion of him if he was extremely careful with his words in light of his own damaging past actions.

Agreed, I can understand falling on either side of the comments.

Jham · August 12, 2018

I acknowledge there are flukes that happen. And I stated I don't want our decision makers relying on hope for flukes.

I don't begrudge your desire to see them compete. What I begrudge is the criticism for their decision.

In fairness, most of the guys we got in return for those traded away are being termed "lottery tickets". I have to think that our chances of making the playoffs, even now for that matter, surpass our odds of winning the lottery.

There's something to be said for not embracing a losing culture. Giving up every time the odds aren't in your favor doesn't really build character or winners, imo. Now if the guys we got move the needle, then it makes some sense. But to give up on multiple seasons for aaa filler and future rule 5 offers, not so much.

There are odds of wining, and there are pot odds. The 2 are not the same. A horse going off as a 1/9 favorite is going to be the most likely winner of a horse race, but a live long shot would still be a better bet because of value.

Less abstractly, if you bet $500 on the Twins to make the playoffs at 10-1 odds earlier in the year and I offered to buy the ticket off you at the trade deadline, you'd want an offer high enough that it actually makes a difference to you. If I offer 2 $1 scratch offs and a power ball, you hold out because for that offer, you may as well hope for the miracle.

Edited August 12, 2018 by Jham

mngopherguy · August 12, 2018

I think the FO and Santana are far less worried about his comments than this board. (Yes Mike, I know it's a Twins board...) His comments were not a big deal.

Squirrel · August 12, 2018

I think the FO and Santana are far less worried about his comments than this board. (Yes Mike, I know it's a Twins board...) His comments were not a big deal.

I pretty much agree with this. As I stated earlier, I really think it was more of an emotional response to missing his teammates and friends who he’s relied on the past few years than pointing a finger about business decisions being made, and I get that. I’m still crying over Escobar. I won’t cry over LoMo, but that wasn’t a trade, but it almost feels like a trade ... welcome to the Twins, Tyler Austin!

Major League Ready · August 12, 2018

I agree, Ervin. They took away a lot of your good pieces. It's a shame. It might have been necessary, or even smart, but it's still not what I want to see my front office do...Give up. Shameful.

So as opposed to doing what you admit here might have been smart you would have preferred them to be dumb and NOT do what's necessary to improve the team's chances to be better in the future? Leaders do what is necessary even when it's not popular with a few people who do not understand the best thing to do for the organization.

Giving up is very different than recognizing your team has had numerous injuries and the players that are not injured are under performing. If we do a position by position comparison of the teams that are contention, it requires one to stick their head very deep in the sand to understand that this team's is simply not a contender. Please feel free to prove me wrong with evidence this team is even close in a position by position comparison.

The old front office was often not willing to realize they did not have the talent to compete in meaningful way and they built pretenders instead of contenders. We had little chance in the playoffs last year and far less this year. Thank god the new regime looked at a 10% chance of getting to the playoffs and a 90% chance of getting our #ss kicked in the playoffs and decided it made sense to pick-up a dozen prospects instead. You say shameful, I say a demonstration of leadership and decision making that improves the chances for sustained performance.

Edited August 12, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready

Riverbrian · August 12, 2018

I think the FO and Santana are far less worried about his comments than this board. (Yes Mike, I know it's a Twins board...) His comments were not a big deal.

I agree

Major League Players have no reason to care about Minor League Acquisitions. Unless they are about to take their job.

Jhoan Duran means nothing to him, he has no reason to check the Cedar Rapids box scores.

Escobar on the other hand had a locker near by and picked up a few of his grounders over the years.

TheLeviathan · August 12, 2018

In fairness, most of the guys we got in return for those traded away are being termed "lottery tickets". I have to think that our chances of making the playoffs, even now for that matter, surpass our odds of winning the lottery.

There's something to be said for not embracing a losing culture. Giving up every time the odds aren't in your favor doesn't really build character or winners, imo. Now if the guys we got move the needle, then it makes some sense. But to give up on multiple seasons for aaa filler and future rule 5 offers, not so much.

There are odds of wining, and there are pot odds. The 2 are not the same. A horse going off as a 1/9 favorite is going to be the most likely winner of a horse race, but a live long shot would still be a better bet because of value.

Less abstractly, if you bet $500 on the Twins to make the playoffs at 10-1 odds earlier in the year and I offered to buy the ticket off you at the trade deadline, you'd want an offer high enough that it actually makes a difference to you. If I offer 2 $1 scratch offs and a power ball, you hold out because for that offer, you may as well hope for the miracle.

Fair points, but then it comes down to hoping that they targeted the right players in their return.

yarnivek1972 · August 12, 2018

I'm not trolling, and not singling you out, I just genuinely have no idea what to do with comments like this. I suppose I could let them go unanswered, but answering them could also provide an educating opportunity too, for people who just aren't aware or are new to following baseball. Who the hell knows. Most important to me is I don't want fans to think comebacks don't happen or that pennant races can't be exciting.

2015: Texas Rangers were 8.0 GB in division on July 27, third place in West, behind the Twins in the Wild Card, went ahead and traded for Cole Hamels, won division.

2009: Minnesota Twins were 7.0 GB trailing Detroit in September.

2007: Colorado Rockies epic win streak.

We don't see this sort of thing every season, but really, the examples are numerous.

Did the Twins have a chance? Yeah, of course they did.

How many of those comebacks featured teams that were below .500 as far back as mid April? I’ll wager few, if any. Teams that spend 3 months below .500 aren’t good. Period.

Hosken Bombo Disco · August 12, 2018

How many of those comebacks featured teams that were below .500 as far back as mid April? I’ll wager few, if any. Teams that spend 3 months below .500 aren’t good. Period.

Of my three examples, the Rangers were below .500 on Aug 13, the Twins were below .500 in September, and the Rockies hovered around .500 most of the season (last below .500 on July 15 but half a game above .500 on Aug. 23).

Your condition that a team spend an unbroken period of time below .500 since mid-April is a pointless technicality. It only reaffirms my opinion that the Twins should have held and played out the schedule with their best players.

At this point, and it's just a gut feeling, but I'd even bet that if Falvey and Levine could do it over, they would, and they would keep Dozier, Escobar, and Rodney in favor of a soft sell of Pressly and Lynn, similar to last year. They still get Austin and a solid minor league starter from Houston, they keep their fan favorites, and not as many empty seats once the Vikings start their season.

Edited August 12, 2018 by Hosken Bombo Disco

yarnivek1972 · August 13, 2018

What you call a “pointless technicality” I call a clear sign of a bad team. Good teams don’t spend basically the entire season under .500. The Twins have been under .500 since mid April. To stay.

Sure, you are entitled to your opinion about what the Twins should have done at the deadline. I’m certainly glad you aren’t the guy making that decision. But, I highly doubt the ones who did regret “selling” as much as they did. Remaining vets are upset about it? Too bad. Perform better.

Mike Sixel · August 13, 2018

I think the FO and Santana are far less worried about his comments than this board. (Yes Mike, I know it's a Twins board...) His comments were not a big deal.

I agree with this also. I don't get the angst over the comments......they make sense emotionally, if not logically. They should be upset about this, all of it......on reflection, they should also realize why this happened and not be upset over time.

Fritzderkat · August 13, 2018

>I can, and will again!
>The pieces were there. Basically the same team that made the surge last year, slightly different bullpen. The front office could have done a "light sell" of Pressly and Lynn and would have been praised just the same.
>Again, heading into July, same lineup as last season. Same players coming back. Pieces were there.
* * *

My point, far as the Twins are concerned, is that the right "pieces haven't been there" for years. Anybody want to argue that?
>Let's say at the start of this season they had Castro, Polanco, a healthy Santana and Buxton and Sano as we've known them all year--performing nowhere near up to expectations, right? So what difference would that have made? They still didn't have what it would take to catch Cleveland, let alone anybody they might have met in the playoffs.This is not a contending club and for all practical purposes hasn't been since '91.

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