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There was quite a stir made when Dallas Keuchel signed with the Twins. Although MLB hitters spent much of the prior two seasons spanking his offerings, the former Cy Young winner felt that his sinker had a few more outs in it, and worked hard to add a few elusive ticks of velo—perhaps hoping that the extra oomph would be the difference between disaster and a spot on a major league roster. He latched onto the Twins on a minor league deal and waited for fate to move in his favor.
Fortunately, Joe Ryan had a debatably real groin problem and an undeniably real home run problem. Needing to decide on keeping Keuchel around, the Twins called him up—and with his Sunday start now in the books—he now needs to be talked about.
Some may have viewed his five frames of one-run ball positively; our own Sherry Cerny argues that he should be the 6th man in the Twins rotation, extending his stay on the major-league roster. He did only allow one run, after all.
Beyond the earned runs, though, there’s much to be concerned about. Namely, Keuchel didn’t strike anyone out.
Yes, no one would confuse prime Keuchel with Randy Johnson—the sinking lefty earned his bread off groundballs, not whiffs—but at his best, Keuchel could still offer five to six punchouts a game, improving his absurd ground ball total by ensuring that the few batted balls hitters could find were headed straight for infielder’s gloves. This year's performance is not Keuchel at his best; his strikeout rate in 2023 against AAA hitters—inferior competition—was below average. He’s almost wholly unable to miss major league bats.
That matters. Some days, those batted balls aren’t always going to find gloves and will instead bang around the field, creating chaos and scoring runs as the visions of his double plays on Sunday become distant and unrecognizable. It’s a simple math problem, with a few more batted ball chances allowing for shenanigans and unideal outcomes. The Pied Piper comes calling for his due eventually; relying on fortunate sequencing and unsustainable left-on-base rates won’t cut it. Those hits will fall. They have to.
Now, yes, he does still have the groundballs. The almighty ability to get batters to drive the ball directly into the earth hasn’t evaporated with age. However, diminished in recent years, Keuchel has demonstrated a rejuvenated grounder rate with the Saints and in his lone Twins start. That’ll always help cap the damage he allows. It can even erase some of his mistakes, but it’s not enough to only have groundballs—especially if batters are smoking his sinker with an exit velocity of 96.2 MPH as they did on Sunday.
Put it this way: strip away the name and the Cy Young award. Would you trust a pitcher with 14 walks and 28 strikeouts over 37 innings? Would you trust a pitcher who could only elicit five swings and misses against one of the coldest offenses in baseball?
He’s solid depth—the kind of guy you may trust more than Simeon Woods Richardson—but making big plans to add him to Minnesota’s grand down-the-stretch scheme is foolish. He got lucky on Sunday and was fortunate in his time with the Saints.
Once Joe Ryan is over his bout of balls-keep-leaving-the-yard-itis, the Twins should thank Keuchel for his troubles, and jettison him to the depths of Baseball Reference, only to be uncovered by intrepid dorks wondering why he made a handful of starts for the 2023 Minnesota Twins. They have better starters, and they will be far more critical to the Twins staving off Cleveland in the coming months.
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- chpettit19 and TwinsDr2021
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