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    Core or Out the Door: Twins Trade Away Candidates, 1-5


    Cody Christie
    Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

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    The Twins’ building block players couldn’t hold the roster together during the team’s historic collapse. Does that mean it’s time to shake up the core heading into 2025?

    As the Minnesota Twins gear up for the 2025 season, the focus shifts to their core group of players who form the backbone of the roster. Some of these players have cemented their place as long-term building blocks, while others could find themselves as valuable trade assets. In this article, we rank the Twins' most important pieces at the big-league level, considering both their impact and the likelihood of them being traded before the 2025 season.

    5. Joe Ryan, SP
    Pros: Ryan has established himself as a reliable mid-rotation starter with flashes of being a top-of-the-rotation option. His fastball-heavy approach works when he's locating well, and he's shown an ability to pitch deep into games. In 2024, he set career-best totals in ERA+ (115), WHIP (0.98), and BB/9 (1.5). Ryan's youth and team control make him a valuable piece for the Twins, both now and in the future.

    Cons: He ended the season on the injured list and has fought through injuries throughout his big-league career. He’s averaged less than 150 innings pitched during his first three full MLB seasons. He can be prone to giving up home runs (30-degree launch angle on his fastball), which might limit his long-term upside. 

    Trade Likelihood: Low-Medium  
    Ryan is a valuable trade asset with a deep pitching prospect pool behind him. However, his trade value might be lower this winter because of his injury to end the 2024 campaign. 

    4. Byron Buxton, OF
    Pros: Buxton had a redemption year in 2024, playing over 100 games and returning to center field for the first time since 2022. He still possesses elite speed and defense when healthy, and his leadership remains invaluable. After years of skepticism around his durability, Buxton proved he can still impact games as he combined for a 137 OPS+, his highest total since 2022.

    Cons: His growing injury history will follow him throughout his big-league career, limiting his overall impact. Minnesota needed him on the field as the team collapsed, but he was among a group of players impacted by injury. 

    Trade Likelihood: Low
    Buxton might have the lowest trade likelihood on the team. He signed his extension because it has a no-trade clause and he wanted his family to be comfortable growing up in Minnesota. Buxton’s contract and injury history complicate any trade possibilities. He isn’t going anywhere. 

    3. Carlos Correa, SS
    Pros: Despite a disappointing finish to his 2024 season due to a foot injury, Correa remained a critical piece for the Twins. Twins Daily voted him the team MVP, even though he was limited to playing in less than 55% of the team’s games. His leadership, defense at shortstop, and ability to perform in high-pressure moments solidify his value. Signed through 2028 (or beyond), Correa is arguably the face of the franchise.

    Cons: His contract is a significant portion of the team’s total payroll, and his health issues are becoming more of a concern as he enters his 30s. Correa needs to avoid the plantar fasciitis injuries that have plagued him over the last two seasons. 

    Trade Likelihood: Low
    Correa has a full no-trade clause, so the only way to move him is for him to agree to a trade. Minnesota could convince him that the team is entering a soft rebuild, making him more open to the idea of a trade to a contender.

    2. Pablo López, SP
    Pros: After arriving in the Luis Arraez trade, López proved to be the ace Minnesota needed, posting career-best numbers in 2023. He struggled through parts of the 2024 season but improved significantly in the second half. In his final 81 1/3 innings, he allowed 25 earned runs (2.77 ERA), with his OPS allowed dropping by 40 points compared to the first half. With López under contract through 2027, he offers long-term security at the top of the rotation.

    Cons: His value likely dipped slightly due to his inconsistent 2024 campaign. It’s also difficult to envision the Twins trading their ace. A blockbuster deal involving López could be on the table if they want to reshape the roster.

    Trade Likelihood: Medium
    The Twins are unlikely to shop López, but with young arms on the rise, they could explore moving him for other upgrades if the right deal comes along. He has the second most expensive contract on the team, but his deal doesn’t include a no-trade clause. 

    1. Royce Lewis, IF
    Pros: Lewis became one of the Twins’ most exciting players over the last two seasons. He showed signs of breaking out after years of injury setbacks. His mix of power and charisma across multiple infield positions makes him the centerpiece of the team's future. When healthy, Lewis has shown he can hit in the clutch and change the momentum of games.

    Cons: Injuries are one concern, including multiple ACL surgeries during his professional career. During the 2024 season, he was also vocal about his dislike of moving him to second base during the middle of the season. Lewis also ended the season amidst the worst slump of his career with a .620 OPS in the second half. 

    Trade Likelihood: Medium
    Lewis looked like a franchise cornerstone, but the Twins might want to trade from their core to alter the team’s future. Trading Lewis might be unpopular, but it could be a necessity to keep the team’s winning window open as long as possible. 

    The Twins have a strong core of building block pieces for 2025, but that doesn’t mean they won’t explore trades to reshape the roster. Players like Correa and Buxton are likely staying put because of their no-trade clauses. However, López, Lewis, or Ryan might be able to bring a strong trade return if the front office wants to make some changes to the core. The offseason will be critical as the front office balances improving the team without disrupting its future success.


    Will any of the players above be traded this winter? Which player is the most critical building block? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.


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    You can't trade from surplus, until you develop surplus. The team has a lot of players who "could be" good, but health is the main thing holding them back seemingly.  The team players for the most part have not developed a lot of "surplus" to be traded for team improvements.

    On 11/4/2024 at 8:41 PM, RpR said:

    Trade Vazquez leaving Camargo and Jeffers; Bobby Witt Jr. will set base stealing records against the Twins.

    Can't speak to Camargo, but Jeffers had almost identical success in holding down the running game as Vazquez.

    2 hours ago, ashbury said:

    Can't speak to Camargo, but Jeffers had almost identical success in holding down the running game as Vazquez.

    Vazquez Rtot and Rdrs, number are positive while Jeffers are negative, and Vazquez has much better Range Factor numbers.

    33 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

    Range Factor is an insignificant contributor to catcher defense. Catchers field very few batted balls.

    Range factor is considered a more accurate measure of a player's defensive ability than fielding percentage because it focuses on the total number of outs a player is involved in, rather than the percentage of chances they handle cleanly.

    Catchers
    Catchers who have many strikeout pitchers on their team will have a high range factor.
    10 hours ago, RpR said:

    Range factor is considered a more accurate measure of a player's defensive ability than fielding percentage because it focuses on the total number of outs a player is involved in, rather than the percentage of chances they handle cleanly.

    Catchers
    Catchers who have many strikeout pitchers on their team will have a high range factor.

    Then it's REALLY stupid to compare catchers based on how many strikeouts their pitchers get. That is measuring the pitchers, not the catchers. Range Factor is a significantly worse way to measure catcher defense than I had imagined. Thanks for the clarification.

    6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

    Then it's REALLY stupid to compare catchers based on how many strikeouts their pitchers get. That is measuring the pitchers, not the catchers. Range Factor is a significantly worse way to measure catcher defense than I had imagined. Thanks for the clarification.

    That is part of how the Baseball experts who make the stats do it, complain to them.

    23 hours ago, gman said:

    You can't trade from surplus, until you develop surplus. The team has a lot of players who "could be" good, but health is the main thing holding them back seemingly.  The team players for the most part have not developed a lot of "surplus" to be traded for team improvements.

    This is correct. Last year we had a surplus at second base really the only surplus in the org. Falvey blew that surplus so now we have none unless we are willing to part with top prospects. 

    1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

    A stat is just a number. If I compared hitters using just HBP data do you think my analysis would be sound?

    People here use numbers, most new to me, to show how they see team/players perfornance.

    As you said they are just numbers but they make some people happy and some people sad.😎




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