Central Intelligence: Detroit Tigers

2016 At A Glance

Record: 86-75

Runs Scored: 750

Runs Allowed: 721

Pythag W/L: 83-78

Pitching WAR Leader: Justin Verlander

Hitting WAR Leader: Ian Kinsler

Season Recap

Miguel Cabrera went back into Miguel Cabrera mode. Ian Kinsler delivered one of the best seasons of his career at age 34. Victor Martinez rebounded, Justin Upton arrived with a 31-homer campaign, and Nick Castellanos seemingly turned a corner at third. On the pitching end, Justin Verlander came through with vintage, ace-caliber performance while Michael Fulmer emerged as a stud.

It was enough to fuel a major turnaround, which saw Detroit rise from fifth to second in the standings, but not enough to get them to the playoffs. Ultimately, they lacked the pitching depth to keep pace with Cleveland, despite a rotation that boasted the Rookie of the Year along with the Cy Young runner-up, and that's... well, scary.

Scarier for Detroit's fan base is that the Tigers front office did little to alter or supplement the roster during the offseason. GM Al Avila showed little outward interest in trading the 34-year-old Kinsler with his value at a high point, a strong signal that title contention remains the plan. Given the Hall of Fame bound cornerstones leading the way, we certainly can't count Detroit out, but will the beast known as Cabrerlander get the help it needs?

Why They'll Be Better

Year One of the Jordan Zimmermann experiment was a bust, and a costly one for the Tigers. After a brilliant month of April, the $110 million free agent signing went in the tank, posting a 6.84 ERA the rest of the way while losing long stretches to neck and lat injuries. It's interesting to think about how differently things might have played out in the Central if Zimmermann had been able to stay strong, healthy and effective throughout the summer.

That's surely what the club is envisioning in this new season. If Verlander and Fullmer can approximate their 2016 performances, while Zim rediscovers the form he consistently showed in Washington, the Tigers have a starter trio that can rival the Indians. This is their best path to overtaking the reigning division champs.

The back of the rotation figures to improve also with young talents like Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd assuming bigger roles. The Tigers will score enough, so if the defense and pitching staff can cut down the Runs Allowed total by 50 or so, 90-plus wins is very realistic.

Why They'll Be Worse

As mentioned earlier, the Tigers came up short last year despite Cabrera, Verlander and several others giving pretty much all you can hope for. It's been a while since the entire core has stayed healthy and productive at the same time, and it's a little tough to count on that keeping up as they age into their mid-30s.

Between Anibal Sanchez and Mike Pelfrey, Detroit has $25 million tied up in burnt out veterans who were sizable parts of the problem in 2016. Neither is a lock for the rotation, but the contractual commitments will probably compel manager Brad Ausmus to feed them more innings and opportunities.

Detroit's offense should still be solid at the very least, but there isn't much setup for improvement. They didn't sign anyone to fill their biggest hole at catcher – James McCann will get another shot after posting a .629 OPS – and they opened a new one by trading center fielder Cameron Maybin for a middling pitching prospect.

The Tigers are set to outspend every MLB team other than the Dodgers and Yankees. Over the past three years, these hefty payrolls have produced not one postseason win. Something's gotta give, which is that I expect Detroit will be a major player at the trade deadline – one way or the other.

Three Key Storylines

1. Can fireballing reliever Bruce Rondon build on his impressive 2016 showing and become a late-inning force?

2. Will Jordan Zimmermann rebound from an ugly first year in Motown and start making good on the team's enormous investment?

3. Who will play between Justin Upton and J.D. Martinez in the outfield? Can some combination of Tyler Collins, Mikie Mahtook and JaCoby Jones equate to a palatable solution in center?