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    Brewers 7, Twins 3: Middle Relief Falls Short, Julien Plays First

    Ted Schwerzler

    By Ted Schwerzler

    The Twins traveled to Wisconsin for a quick two-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers. Matching production early, the Twins found themselves with a slight advantage halfway through Tuesday night's game. A bullpen blowup led to a highlight that saw Edouard Julien play first base.

    Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Box Score
    SP: Bailey Ober 5.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
    Home Runs: Christian Vazquez (4)
    Top 3 WPA:  Christian Vazquez .126, Kyle Farmer .116, Bailey Ober .095
    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

    chart(1).png.c5893ae1d35e5d7b6e2df6350934c966.png

    You see something new every day during a baseball game, and Jeff Nelson showed us something different in the first inning of Tuesday's Brewers and Twins matchup. After Jorge Polanco foul tipped a third strike into the glove of William Contreras, the Brewers backstop dropped the ball, but it was deemed to have happened on the transfer. That's not a play you ever see, but Rocco Baldelli got an explanation and moved on with the action.

    Bailey Ober has fallen off since the All-Star Break, and he continued a run of seven straight starts allowing a homer. In the first inning, Willy Adames stepped in and took Ober out to left center. After giving up just eight home runs in 82 2/3 innings before the break, he's allowed nine in 32 innings since.

    Christian Vazquez turned 33 on Monday, and while there were no fireworks on the Twins off day, he provided some with a blast scoring Kyle Farmer on a homer to left field. Immediately answering for Minnesota against Wade Miley, it was a new ballgame early.

    Ober largely nibbled in the third inning and struggled to put William Contreras away before nearly walking Carlos Santana. Instead, Jorge Polanco started a double play that Carlos Correa's howitzer attached to his right shoulder finished. Adames had a hit taken away by Kyle Famer, and the Twins could escape a daunting jam.

    The two previous games between Minnesota and Milwaukee this season were decided by two runs apiece, with the Twins walking off the first one. Entering the fourth inning with both teams having a pair of runs on a pair of hits only highlights how close both clubs are.

    Jordan Luplow, in against the lefty starter, kicked off the fourth inning with a double just down the line. After Correa worked a walk, Farmer grabbed his second hit of the game. Lofting a single to left fielder Christian Yelich, Luplow was fine testing the weak arm and came across the plate giving Minnesota their first lead. Despite a tough couple of innings to open up the game, Ober found a new gear and dominated, retiring eight straight Milwaukee hitters. While the Twins didn't crush Miley, they did force Milwaukee to the bullpen after five innings.

    Baldelli answered with Dylan Floro taking over for Ober in the sixth inning. At just 78 pitches, Ober had bounced back from a rough start to the outing. Having retired eight in a row, he rebounded well. Baldelli indicated that limiting innings for him down the stretch will be a thing, and tonight this was the spot. Milwaukee opened the frame with back-to-back singles before Floro got a strikeout. Mark Canha singled to right field, scoring Contreras, and the game was tied. Tyrone Taylor popped a jam-shot single to right, scoring Santana, and Milwaukee had their second lead. A Brice Turang single brought Canha home before Brian Anderson plated Taylor and Turang.

    Floro's sixth inning had entirely gone off the rails. Despite giving up weak contact, he surrendered six singles to Brewers batters. Trailing 7-3, Minnesota needed to find a late-inning comeback. Oliver Ortega took over in the seventh inning and brought the game to a crawl with an inability to find the strike zone. Following his 25th pitch, Ortega winced and was lifted due to injury. Cole Sands inherited a 3-0 count, issuing a walk, but got out of the inning on the next at-bat.

    Edouard Julien pinch hit for Donovan Solano in the top of the eighth inning, and Baldelli kept him in at first base to start the bottom half. With 420 defensive innings at the Major League level, this was the first time one came at first base. The last time Julien was used at first base was back in 2021 at Single-A Fort Myers. Interestingly, the Twins never previously got Julien innings at first base, but this certainly signifies they're open to that idea. Being an option there with Alex Kirilloff in the future opens more positions on the infield for Minnesota's youth.

    Royce Lewis singled to start the ninth inning, but an aggressive turn got him thrown out, retreating after attempting to stretch for a double. Max Kepler then watched a 101-mph fastball from former Twins reliever Trevor Megill for strike three. Vazquez popped out to end it and the end of this one felt like a whimper.

    Take a look at the game through a Brewers lens with a recap from Brewer Fanatic.

    Notes
    With the Brewers starting a lefty in Wade Miley, Matt Wallner was the lone lefty to start for Minnesota on Tuesday. Edouard Julien and Max Kepler found themselves on the bench for game one of the short series.

    Glen Perkins, who was on the broadcast tonight for Minnesota, talked of his struggles against Brewers' Carlos Santana. All of their matchups came when Santana was with the Guardians. Santana owned Perkins to the tune of four homers and a pair of doubles.

    Rocco Baldelli has said Joe Ryan's next start will come with Minnesota, not in a rehab outing for the Saints. The groin is healthy, and it remains to be seen how his effectiveness and ability to keep the ball in the yard respond.

    Perkins noted his first at-bat came against the Brewers. He faced Jeff Suppan and swung once, fouling the ball off. It was his lone swing in a major league game. Later in 2008, he faced Greg Maddux with the Padres.

    What's Next? 
    It's a quick two-game series for the Twins and Brewers. Minnesota will face Milwaukee ace Corbin Burnes Wednesday afternoon before returning home to welcome the Texas Rangers. The following two weeks represent Minnesota's last gauntlet of the season, and how they handle, it will likely determine their 2023 fate.

    Wednesday 8/22 Kenta Maeda vs Corbin Burnes 1:10pm

    Postgame Interviews

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

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    A blogger for over a decade, passion for baseball and the Minnesota Twins runs deep. Whether at the ballpark or on the couch, I'm probably tweeting.
    Follow Ted Schwerzler on Twitter: tlschwerz

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    Featured Comments

    USAFChief

    USAFChief 78,972

  • Twins Daily Contributor

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

    Actually, teams have a ton of data showing evidence for limiting innings. So do places like Sports Info Solutions, Inside Edge, and other baseball data tracking companies. But I do always appreciate your snark.

    And I appreciate your name drops without actually posting any evidence. 

    I also appreciate you focusing on Nolan Ryan while ignoring the "thousands of others."

    There's zero evidence innings increases result in injury, beyond the fact that pitching causes injury. 

    You asked for input. I gave mine. Let him pitch.

     

    Riverbrian

    Riverbrian 42,821

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    2 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

    As with a lot of sabermetric decisions, this omits the most important fact:  Rocco pulled Ober after 5 with a 3-2 lead AND REPLACED HIM WITH DYLAN FLORO.  Replacing a starter who is performing well with a low pitch count, with a bad reliever who seemingly hasn't had a clean inning since he arrived here, is quite out of the ordinary in my book.  

    Details matter.  

    Ok... So he throws this 6th. Then he brings in a bullpen arm. Now what happens? 

    No guarantees what happens after that... nor is there a guarantee what happens with Ober in the 6th. 

    It's baseball. Milwaukee strung some soft stuff together and a crooked number went on the scoreboard. 

    The ability of Floro? We will see. I'll always contend that you can't hide anyone in the bullpen. He's on the roster so his number will be called upon and it was. 

    Hindsight says it was a mistake. At the time... it was a decision that didn't work out without the benefit of hindsight and none of us know if our alternate suggestions would have worked out.  

    LA Vikes Fan

    LA Vikes Fan 8,116

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

    I get that watching Ober get pulled from that game with 78 pitches is frustrating, but, legitimate question, is there an inning limit total that people around here would put on Ober? For reference, the most innings he'd ever thrown in 1 season before this year was 108.1 in 2021. He threw 106.2 in college in 2014 when he was 18. He's never thrown more than 100 innings in a season in his life outside of those 2 instances. He's at 136.1 so far this year.

    So I'm legitimately curious if there's any limit fans around here would put on him, or would you all just let him throw an unlimited amount of innings?

    You have to limit his innings. The injury risk is too great. I recall reading that the stats are that innings increases for starters should be limited to 20-25% year to year. After that, the stats show that the risk of a major injury goes way up. I can't find the article now so someone please correct me if I'm wrong on the numbers.   

    Ober is already at about a 25% increase over his 108 innings pitched in 2021 and at a more than 50% increase over his 88 innings in 2022. those totals are minor and MLB innings combined. I expect them to try to limit him to 165-170 innings max, and maybe even 150-160. Given that he should have roughly 6-7 starts left in the remaining 36 games, I expect that he will be limited through this next rough stretch and then maybe even shut down for the last part of September if we are eliminated or clinch. If it's still a race, I can see him getting 5-6 starts but being limited to 5-6 innings a start.  

    hitterscount

    hitterscount 805

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    53 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

    Were there avoidable decisions that led directly to the loss? That is true in every loss.  Every. Single. Time.  What were the reasons that happened?

    Taking out Ober, who probably benefits from a bit less strenuous use?  Injuries tend to happen more when one is fatigued and since he has never sniffed this many innings in a season in his life, I'm going with the over on that one.

    Deciding to use a middle reliever, in the middle innings of a game? Should've brought in Duran.  He could pitch the next four innings for sure.  Then he won't be available tomorrow (or maybe ever if he pitches four innings) when we really need him because dumb dumb Rocco pitched him too much today. 

    Encouraging Correa to miss the DP ball?  I'm sure he definitely was trying to miss.  Former platinum glovers do that all the time just to be fancy. What a bum!

    Making sure to place his infielders in position where they happened to not be able to get to the ball?  Good call.  It enabled the Brewers to get lots of softly hit singles.  Any idiot could predict the future!

    What about having Julien play 1B?  What if he had made an error.  That's probably why they didn't hit anymore.  They were worrying about his fielding.

    I have no problem with questioning the players, the manager, or the organization in general.  However, I think that coming out of a game trying to figure out how to berate the manager is disingenuous at best.  Criticizing is stating your case with evidence and talking about how the outcome might have been different.  Rocco Sucks! Doesn't know how to handle a pitching staff! He's an idiot! Fire the manager! Can't get rid of him soon enough!  These are all over the top hyperbole that destroy your argument before you make it.  All of them imply a level of baseball knowledge that nobody on this page probably has.

     

     

     

    It's not one game. It's more systemic than that and has been on display for nearly three seasons. Last night was just another example of the many questionable decisions witnessed on a weekly basis. He has received a free pass due to player injuries, and to some extent that is true. Just my opinion, but lately there are more comments and concerns about his managing style and in game decisions. which is fair to question. 

    After the game Ober vented and he isn't the first player to question being pulled... sounded like he wasn't aware of being on a limited pitch count... that is mind boggling these decisions are not relayed to the player.   

    You may love the guy and think he is a great manager, that is your right. I don't dislike him or think he is an idiot.... but am definitely growing tired of the lack of execution and any resemblance of consistency.  They can look like contenders for 3-4 games and then are lost for the next week. I find it hard to believe it is only a player issue. 

    Rod Carews Birthday

    Rod Carews Birthday 4,587

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    21 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

    It's not one game. It's more systemic than that and has been on display for nearly three seasons. Last night was just another example of the many questionable decisions witnessed on a weekly basis. He has received a free pass from injuries, and to some extent that is true. Just my opinion, but lately there are more comments and concerns about his managing style and in game decisions. which is fair to question. 

    After the game Ober vented and he isn't the first player to question being pulled... sounded like he wasn't aware of being on a limited pitch count... that is mind boggling these decisions are not relayed to the player.   

    You may love the guy and think he is a great manager, that is your right. I don't dislike him or think he is an idiot.... but am definitely growing tired of the lack of execution and any resemblance of consistency.  They can look like contenders for 3-4 games and then are lost for the next week. I find it hard to believe it is only a player issue. 

    First of all, my frustration is obviously not directed at you, as you actually have reasonable arguments.  Thank you!  

    I would say that I mostly agree with you in that there can and should be concerns about some decisions.  I do think that one of the reasons they are starting to mount is because everyone feels the pressure of being in a division title race and little things are starting to matter more now that we are only 40 games or so from the finish line.  Game 142 isn’t any more important than game 22 in the great scheme of things, but it certainly feels like it. 

    I take Ober’s comments with a grain of salt.  First, when I listened to him in the presser, he didn’t really sound upset aside from the “I want to go out there and keep on pitching” mentality that good pitchers have.  Was he disappointed?  Probably, and that’s OK.  You are right in that it would be boggling for those decisions not being relayed to a player, but I’m guessing that he was just being hyper-competitive, like we want him to be. 

    I don’t think that Baldelli is a great manager, just one who is likely better than most of the realistic alternatives.  There are certainly better ones, or at least more accomplished ones.  They all make decisions that turn out to be mistakes in hindsight, but they don’t get the benefit of hindsight when those choices are made.  The lack of consistency does boggle the mind at times, but I’m not entirely sure what the answer is for that.  As a 35 year teaching veteran, I know that inconsistency has a way of rearing its ugly head even when we think there is no reason for it.  

    KirbyDome89

    KirbyDome89 6,083

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

    I get that watching Ober get pulled from that game with 78 pitches is frustrating, but, legitimate question, is there an inning limit total that people around here would put on Ober? For reference, the most innings he'd ever thrown in 1 season before this year was 108.1 in 2021. He threw 106.2 in college in 2014 when he was 18. He's never thrown more than 100 innings in a season in his life outside of those 2 instances. He's at 136.1 so far this year.

    So I'm legitimately curious if there's any limit fans around here would put on him, or would you all just let him throw an unlimited amount of innings?

    No, I wouldn't go with a hard cap. Right now I view Ober the same way I view Buxton; they're best used (maxed) when available. I understand some of the concern with his innings, but he's 28 and as you've already pointed out, he has trouble staying on the field. I'm not at all confident he's back to 130+ or even 100+ innings next year no matter what type of management route the team decides to use. If he looks fatigued, or starts to slip that's another story, but by all accounts he's healthy and feeling good, so I think you roll along status quo. Also, I don't want Kuechel and Varland making starts over the next 3 weeks when this 19 game stretch should hopefully wrap the division.   

    chpettit19

    chpettit19 23,687

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

    And I appreciate your name drops without actually posting any evidence. 

    I also appreciate you focusing on Nolan Ryan while ignoring the "thousands of others."

    There's zero evidence innings increases result in injury, beyond the fact that pitching causes injury. 

    You asked for input. I gave mine. Let him pitch.

     

    There is data, you just maybe haven't read it or maybe you have and just don't believe it, I don't know. I'd love to see the "thousands of others" with significant innings increases to help prove your point. You think there've been "thousands" of guys who've gone from 75ish innings to 150+ innings from 1 season to another? I'd take the under on that bet.

    There is statistically significant data that shows increasing your innings total by 30+% year over year leads to more injuries and performance decreases. Then going up from there the risk escalates. There's even data showing that simply pitching through the postseason leads to slower starts the next year because the body hasn't been able to recover well enough.

    I appreciate your input. I have no problem with you wanting them to just let him, or any other pitcher, go as much as they can. I'd have some limits, but they'd be different than others. To each their own.

    chpettit19

    chpettit19 23,687

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    1 minute ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    No, I wouldn't go with a hard cap. Right now I view Ober the same way I view Buxton; they're best used (maxed) when available. I understand some of the concern with his innings, but he's 28 and as you've already pointed out, he has trouble staying on the field. I'm not at all confident he's back to 130+ or even 100+ innings next year no matter what type of management route the team decides to use. If he looks fatigued, or starts to slip that's another story, but by all accounts he's healthy and feeling good, so I think you roll along status quo. Also, I don't want Kuechel and Varland making starts over the next 3 weeks when this 19 game stretch should hopefully wrap the division.   

    That's mostly where I'm at, too. Definitely have no desire to see them do what the Nats did with Strasburg back in the day. I'm surprised this risk averse organization has let him get this high in innings, but at this point I'd let him go. I also have no confidence he has more "full seasons" in him moving forward anyways.

    chpettit19

    chpettit19 23,687

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

    You have to limit his innings. The injury risk is too great. I recall reading that the stats are that innings increases for starters should be limited to 20-25% year to year. After that, the stats show that the risk of a major injury goes way up. I can't find the article now so someone please correct me if I'm wrong on the numbers.   

    Ober is already at about a 25% increase over his 108 innings pitched in 2021 and at a more than 50% increase over his 88 innings in 2022. those totals are minor and MLB innings combined. I expect them to try to limit him to 165-170 innings max, and maybe even 150-160. Given that he should have roughly 6-7 starts left in the remaining 36 games, I expect that he will be limited through this next rough stretch and then maybe even shut down for the last part of September if we are eliminated or clinch. If it's still a race, I can see him getting 5-6 starts but being limited to 5-6 innings a start.  

    Most recent data I saw was saying 30% is kind of the trigger line for an increase in risk. I'm definitely surprised they've let him go as freely as they have. Not that I think it's right or wrong, just that this org plays things incredibly carefully with most everyone else when it comes to injuries and playing time so I'm surprised to see them let him go so much. 

    DJL44

    DJL44 16,607

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, python85 said:

    With 12 more wins this team is 77- 49 with the best record in the AL. The decision by Rocco didn't work out last night, but a different manager doesn't suddenly turn this team from average to excellent 

    Good point. If Rocco makes a different decision yesterday they probably lose 4-3 instead of 7-3. Still ends up in the loss column. They're 2 wins under their pythagorean W-L record. A manager who makes all the right decisions might be 3-4 wins above Pythag. The Orioles and Tigers are best at +6. Even a great manager couldn't win all the time with this bullpen.

    DJL44

    DJL44 16,607

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    21 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    Also, I don't want Kuechel and Varland making starts over the next 3 weeks when this 19 game stretch should hopefully wrap the division.   

    I'd be fine with them pitching the last 2 weeks of the season though. If they clinch early they can rest everyone. The magic number is 31 with 36 games left. Assuming the Twins play .500 baseball and the Guardians do too they will clinch with two weeks left to go. Win 4 of the 6 remaining games with Cleveland and it's probably over.



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