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    Athletics 4, Twins 2 (10 inn.): Twins Can't Convert Chances, Shea Langeliers is Mean

    The Twins kept the pressure on with aggressive baserunning from their younger players, but an inability to come up with hits with runners in scoring position continues to plague the team.

    Sherry Cerny
    Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

    Twins Video

    Box Score
    SP:
    Bailey Ober - 5.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K (82 pitches, 53 strikes (65%))
    Home Runs: no one
    Bottom 3 WPA: Royce Lewis (-.254), Byron Buxton (-.210), Génesis Cabrera (-.190)
    Win Probability Chart (per FanGraphs) image.png.bb8b186aa13a0a3f691e1f57ca35e36e.png

    Bailey Ober made his fourth start since returning from the hip injury that sidelined him this summer. His velocity remains a concern—strong in his first two outings, but leveling off in his most recent. The team has also dropped his last three starts, with Ober responsible for all but one of the runs surrendered in those appearances. Tonight was one of his better appearances, despite the dearth of velocity. Ober's back was tight in pregame warmups, but he said it loosened up as the outing progressed, and he felt he had unusually good feel for each of his pitches.

    The Athletics struck first in the top of the second. Tyler Soderstrom led off with a double, and Darell Hernaiz followed with a sac fly to center. Byron Buxton tracked it deep to the wall and made the catch with ease, despite facing into the sun. The run scored, but that was all Oakland managed, taking a 1–0 lead.

    In the bottom of the third, James Outman collected his second hit as a Twin—a double—to open the inning. Ryan Fitzgerald, his new “twin” in the lineup, followed with a single of his own. On an airy throw into the infield by right fielder JJ Bleday, Fitzgerald alertly took second base, putting both runners in scoring position after aggressive baserunning. Buxton then hit a sharp grounder to third baseman Brett Harris, however, and Harris's sure-handed pick and peg home nailed Outman to kill the would-be tying tally. 

    Once again, the Twins failed to cash in with runners aboard. Like so many innings before, the threat ended in a double play—this time off Trevor Larnach’s bat. No matter the opponent, the Twins hit into double plays, as if rehearsed.

    Ober entered the fourth inning at 51 pitches. On his second batter, second pitch, he surrendered a solo shot to Soderstrom—just clearing the center-field wall and out of Buxton’s reach. Ober regrouped to strike out Hernaiz, and the Athletics finished the inning up 2-0.

    Both pitchers allowed their share of hits, but the defenses held firm on both sides. The Twins stayed aggressive on the bases, yet Oakland’s defense matched their energy.

    Luke Keaschall provided another spark with the team's second extra-base hit of the game—and his seventh of the year. He then stole third during Kody Clemens’s at-bat, barely beating the tag. Clemens couldn't bring him home, however. With two outs, Ryan Jeffers drew the first walk issued by Athletics pitching all night, bringing up Matt Wallner with a chance to tie it. But Wallner’s at-bat ended quickly on a routine fly to right. The crack of the bat drew a collective breath from fans, but instead of cheers, only a groan of continued frustration followed.

    The fifth inning was the turning point for the Twins lineup. Instead of dying after one out, they rebounded. Outman clubbed another double to start the frame. Even after what looked like a home run (or at least another double) from Fitzgerald was snatched in center field, followed by Buxton striking out for the fateful second out, the rally wasn't quite extinguished.

    Larnach came through and hit a single off a sinker. The line drive to left field gave Outman the chance to run home and get the Twins on the board, 2-1. Brooks Lee then hit a liner to right-center that center fielder Lawrence Butler (better cast in right) couldn't catch, and Larnach came all the way around as the ball went to the wall.

    After a walk to Keaschall, the Athletics went to the bullpen early. In response, Rocco Baldelli pinch-hit Royce Lewis for Clemens, but before he could even swing, a misread from Lee leaving second base ended the inning; catcher Shea Langeliers threw him out at third. 

    Ober started the sixth inning, but was replaced by Kody Funderburk with two outs, to face Soderstrom. Funderburk walked Soderstrom, but Keaschall and new first baseman(!) Fitzgerald combined on a putout to escape the miniature jam.

    Lewis singled to lead off the bottom of the sixth, but was caught stealing during Ryan Jeffers's at-bat. The Twins were caught twice out of the four times attempting to steal bases against the Athletics tonight. The decision to be aggressive on the bases is a conscious one, Baldelli affirmed after the game, and it will continue—but it comes with some pain.

    Cole Sands worked a 1-2-3 seventh inning. The game remained tied 2-2 through seven. Justin Topa came in to work the eighth, and immediately put himself in danger against the teeth of the Sacramento lineup. With two on and nobody out, Langeliers registered the first out. A short flyout from Brent Rooker held the runners and got the second out. Soderstrom was intentionally walked, and what happened next was the stuff baseball is made of. With the bases loaded and two outs, Topa struck out Colby Thomas on three pitches to end the inning.

    Leading off the bottom half of the frame, Lee got his third hit of the night, a single to left field that fell just short of Soderstrom. Austin Martin pinch-ran for Lee. Lewis and Jeffers each flied out to center without allowing Martin to advance, though. A's manager Mark Kotsay made another pitching change, bringing in Hogan Harris to face Wallner, who struggles to hit lefties. Wallner fought through a full count, but grounded out to end the mild threat.

    Brooks Kriske came out in the ninth. Edouard Julien came in play to first base and Fitzgerald moved to the shortstop spot vacated by Lee. In the shuffle, Outman had move to right field, where he immediately made what could have been a fatal mistake, falling down beneath a routine fly ball that became a gift double.

    A walk ended up bringing Nick Kurtz to the plate with two outs and two on. Baldelli called upon Génesis Cabrera to face Kurtz, who also struggles against lefties. Cabrera got him out with no incident, moving the game to the bottom of the ninth and shifting the pressure to the visitors.

    With the game on the line, Fitzgerald drew a one-out walk. Byron Buxton hit a long fly ball to center field that had the crowd loud and hopeful, but it died in the outfielder's glove. In another two-out situation, with the winning run at first, Larnach pulled through with a single to right field, advancing Fitzgerald to third. Martin, however, couldn't bring him the rest of the way, flying out to send the game to extra frames.

    Cabrera came back out to start the 10th. Kurtz started on second for the Athletics. As he did Tuesday night, however, Langeliers made the telling difference, crushing a two-run home run to give Sacramento a two-run edge. He has the most homers in the league since the All-Star break. (grumblegrumble) Good for him. The next three outs came quickly, but the damage had been done. The Twins would have to pull something magical to pull off the win. 

    Inexplicably, on a flyout by Lewis to begin the 10th, Martin tagged up and went to third. He was safe—but barely, and he should feel lucky, because his run meant relatively little in that situation. Jeffers drew a two-out walk and was replaced by pinch-runner Mickey Gasper, while Julien made his first hitting appearance of the evening. The light was snuffed out, though, with a grounder hit to the second baseman to end the game. 

    The Twins battled at the plate and were aggressive on the bases, Ghost-Runner strikes again. 

    What’s Next? 
    The Twins finish out the series with the Athletics Thursday, before heading into the third divisional series of the month with the Kansas City Royals at home. José Ureña (0-0, 4.06 ERA) takes the ball for the Twins, opposite righty Jack Perkins (2-2, 4.28) for the A's. First pitch is at 12:10 PM CT.

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    50 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

    It's mid-August and Wallner has driven in 11 baserunners.

    Ee-lev-nn.

    Thats why some of us believe OPS isnt a good measure of actual offense impact.

    High K, low BA hitters who depend on one swing every 25 PAs tend to be very overrated by OPS.

    I know considering RBI as a meaningful stat brands me as a Neanderthal. Don't care, so don't bother. 

    RBI are the single most important thing a hitter can do in a baseball game. 

    In 58 PAs when Wallner is at the plate with runners in scoring position he has a whopping .140 batting average with 0 HRs, and a paltry 5 RBIs. Strangely though, he has 13 BBs to 14 Ks so it's not as if he's striking out 30%+ of the time. But it's a reminder that hitting a single is far more valuable than taking a walk in these situations.

    Also, only 3 sacrifice flies in a career 871 PAs for Wallner. Still not close to the legendary Joey Gallo's 4 SFs in 3400 PAs.

    6 minutes ago, Danchat said:

    In 58 PAs when Wallner is at the plate with runners in scoring position he has a whopping .140 batting average with 0 HRs, and a paltry 5 RBIs. Strangely though, he has 13 BBs to 14 Ks so it's not as if he's striking out 30%+ of the time. But it's a reminder that hitting a single is far more valuable than taking a walk in these situations.

    Also, only 3 sacrifice flies in a career 871 PAs for Wallner. Still not close to the legendary Joey Gallo's 4 SFs in 3400 PAs.

    He's had 871 PAs and only had a chance to drive in runners in 58 of them in his entire career? That's crazy low for opportunities.

    3 hours ago, shimrod said:

    The Outman play at the plate was prime Rocco. Why is the contact play on with no outs and first base open? Aside, of course, from the fact we always run it with a man on third. Which negates much of the value as your opponents don't even have to think about it, they know to go home with the throw.

    Squandering that potential big inning is completely on the manager for taking discretion away from the player and forcing him into an out. Just brutal. 

     

    Have you been watching the little league world series? I will take most of them coaches over RB as manager. I'm not sure RB could coach little league. Maybe he can teach them how to a spit.

    17 minutes ago, Danchat said:

    In 58 PAs when Wallner is at the plate with runners in scoring position he has a whopping .140 batting average with 0 HRs, and a paltry 5 RBIs. Strangely though, he has 13 BBs to 14 Ks so it's not as if he's striking out 30%+ of the time. But it's a reminder that hitting a single is far more valuable than taking a walk in these situations.

    Also, only 3 sacrifice flies in a career 871 PAs for Wallner. Still not close to the legendary Joey Gallo's 4 SFs in 3400 PAs.

    Something is clearly wrong with his approach. In high leverage situations he's hitting into a IF popup a full quarter of the time. That's 2x as high as it should be given his profile. He's making an effort to lift the ball, and doing a terrible job. 

    20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

    He's had 871 PAs and only had a chance to drive in runners in 58 of them in his entire career? That's crazy low for opportunities.

    The 58 PAs is 2025. The 871 is career.  Pretty sure you could have figured that out....or did, but thought it would tank your argument. 

    BTW, since you like OPS, care to take a guess what Wallner's OPS is this year in those 58 PAs with runners in scoring position?

    Spoiler alert: its .490

    For the record, he has another 46 PAs with a runner on first in addition to the 58 with RISP. He's had opportunities. 

    It might also interest you to know Wallner has more RBI this season with the bases empty than with any combination of runners on.

    For his career in those 871 PAs, Wallner has driven in 70 baserunners. 

    I want to see Wallner play every day. But let's not pretend he's been very impactful. He's been a part of the problem this team has in scoring runs.

    1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

    I guess if you want to develop one-dimensional hitters, then that's fine. You'll get a Royce Lewis who can only hit opposite field, a Matt Wallner who grounds out to 2B all the time, a Brooks Lee who hits like Julien and a Julien who hits like Brooks Lee. Never mind that you can't punish people into performing better athletically.

    Lots of coaches will take a player who is struggling at the plate and have them put down a bunt. It's not a crazy idea to have players look at the situation and try to make the most of the at-bat in that situation. I want Royce Lewis to be able to pull the ball when they give him a fastball in, go opposite field on a slider away AND put down a bunt when the situation calls for it.

    Yes, that was obviously some extreme exaggeration, but Royce Lewis laying down bunts in games is not what's going to solve this team's problems or fix Royce Lewis. And you absolutely can use negative reinforcement to improve athletic performance. There are fines handed down between players in MLB clubhouses right now. 

    4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

    He's had 871 PAs and only had a chance to drive in runners in 58 of them in his entire career? That's crazy low for opportunities.

    I'm pretty sure some season and career figures are getting commingled here 58 PAs with RISP is this year.

    I've long been searching for a good way to find an easy source for how a player has done driving in runs relative to their opportunities.  The best I've found so far in the game log section of BBRef.  For any given year, there's an "RBI opportunities" section that shows how many RBI a player has relative to the MLB average given the number of PAs, as well as the number of PAs with a runner on each base, also relative to the MLB average.

    For our friend Matt Wallner, this year his 27 RBI in 291 PAs is below the league average expectation of 33.  However, he's also had definitvely fewer opportunities than the average MLB hitter based on who's been on base for his PAs. 

    PAs with a runner on: First - Second - Third 

    Wallner:  77-48-17 (142 total, 65 RISP)

    Avg MLB: 87-58-28 (174 total, 86 RISP)

    In other words, Wallner has had significantly fewer RBI opportunities, and fewer good opportunities, than the average MLB hitter.

    So if you think Wallner's driving in fewer runs than his OPS would indicate, you're right!

    If you think Wallner's raw RBI total has been suppressed by relative lack of opportunity, you're also right!

    Ain't math fun?

    I wish they took this a step further and presented the number of RBI Wallner would expect to have given the runners he's had on base.  Comparing that number to his actual RBI total would really tell us how effective he's been driving in runs.   Effectiveness is better measured by a rate or a comparison of actual vs expected than a raw total.  It's why we don't give the batting title to the player with the most hits.

    The Twins only have 3 players with at least 1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) according to BBref, Buxton (3.9), Jeffers (1.2) and Keaschall (1.0). Everyone else is hovering in the replacement zone. The White Sox, for comparison, have 8 players with at least 1 WAR. Plan on seeing a very different lineup next season.

    22 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

    The 58 PAs is 2025. The 871 is career.  Pretty sure you could have figured that out....or did, but thought it would tank your argument. 

    BTW, since you like OPS, care to take a guess what Wallner's OPS is this year in those 58 PAs with runners in scoring position?

    Spoiler alert: its .490

    For the record, he has another 46 PAs with a runner on first in addition to the 58 with RISP. He's had opportunities. 

    It might also interest you to know Wallner has more RBI this season with the bases empty than with any combination of runners on.

    For his career in those 871 PAs, Wallner has driven in 70 baserunners. 

    I want to see Wallner play every day. But let's not pretend he's been very impactful. He's been a part of the problem this team has in scoring runs.

    No, I just assumed the original poster was using career numbers for everything. I suppose could have figured it out but I have a limited amount of time to fact check posts.

    I will still stand by my statement that he’s not one of the top 20 problems to solve.

    33 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

    I wish they took this a step further and presented the number of RBI Wallner would expect to have given the runners he's had on base.  Comparing that number to his actual RBI total would really tell us how effective he's been driving in runs.   Effectiveness is better measured by a rate or a comparison of actual vs expected than a raw total.  It's why we don't give the batting title to the player with the most hits.

    I agree, that's what I'd like to see. Because I have to imagine 5 RBIs in 58 PAs is a poor rate compared to the rest of the league, but who knows how much the rest of the league is at.

    3 hours ago, Glorybound said:

       The front office likely has their reasons. Working on some things they want cleaned up. He might as well be as ready as they possibly can make him when they bring him up as this season is lost. My guess is they want him in the rotation when the 26 season starts. Rushing the process sometimes regresses the development of the individual.

    Abel has over 300 IP between AA and AAA the last few seasons. The guy already started 6 games for the Phillies this season before the trade. They thought he was ready enough to pitch at the MLB level while they were actually trying to win games. He can "work on some things," with actual Major League pitching coaches. He's going to begin 2026 in the rotation but getting him starts in August is rushing the process? 

    1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

    No, I just assumed the original poster was using career numbers for everything. I suppose could have figured it out but I have a limited amount of time to fact check posts.

    I will still stand by my statement that he’s not one of the top 20 problems to solve.

    What are the top 20? I'd certainly argue that the lack of position player development has been a major problem for this team. 

    37 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    What are the top 20? I'd certainly argue that the lack of position player development has been a major problem for this team. 

    Might as well include drafting also. I find it interesting that 2 of the best performers in our system (McCusker and Eeles) were non-draft signees. Heck, even the undrafted Dobnak made it to The Show.

    41 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    What are the top 20? I'd certainly argue that the lack of position player development has been a major problem for this team. 

    Ownership, GM, Manager, 1B, 3B, C2, SS, LF, SP4, SP5, SP6, SP7, RP1, RP2, RP3, RP4, RP5, RP6, OF4, UT

    9 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

    The Twins only have 3 players with at least 1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) according to BBref, Buxton (3.9), Jeffers (1.2) and Keaschall (1.0). Everyone else is hovering in the replacement zone. The White Sox, for comparison, have 8 players with at least 1 WAR. Plan on seeing a very different lineup next season.

    I would not split a bet on that to any level.




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