A Look at How Twins Daily’s Top-20 Prospects Performed This Spring

In general, we can probably all agree that spring training stats are next to useless. However, there are arguably two exceptions. In the case of back-end roster spots and position battles the results have relevance, and in the case of prospects, while the results aren’t paramount per se, they are at least interesting. Today, we’ll take a look at the Twins Daily’s top-20 prospects who made the big league camp and parse the results.

With both 40-man and non-roster invites, about half of the top-20 list appeared in spring training games. While the sample sizes are small and the big-league competition may have been rusty or focused specific aspects of their game rather than results, it is fun to see how young players perform against some variance of the best. Whenever the season starts, none of the group will be up with the Twins, but there were some strong performances. We’ll bust the prospects into tiers based on their rankings.

Baseball Reference attempts to quantify the quality of competition faced and I included it as the final number in the stat-lines as “OppQual.” The higher the number the better the quality of opponent faced.

Tier 1: The Top 5

#1 Royce Lewis – .200/.200/.480 – 25 AB, 5 H, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 0 BB, 7 SO – 7.5 OppQual

#2 Alex Kirilloff – .429/.455/.810 – 21 AB, 9 H, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 3 SO – 7.3 OppQual

#3 Trevor Larnach – .333/.467/.708 – 24 AB, 8 H, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 1 SB, 5 BB, 3 SO – 6.8 OppQual

The baby-bomba squad combined for seven home runs! Royce Lewis used his added muscle to punish the ball, but a few walks would have looked nice next to his seven strikeouts (though he faced the strongest quality of opponent). Lewis also shined defensively where he played at short exclusively. Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach’s spring training numbers do nothing to dispel the notion that they are near MLB-ready. Interestingly, Larnach only appeared in left field once, as he mainly served as a DH, while Kirilloff played in right, left, and made one appearance at first base. Both showed good pop and Larnach’s great plate discipline was on full display with five walks to just three strikeouts. Eddie Rosario’s neck must be getting sore from looking over his shoulder!

Tier 2: Prospects 6 – 10

#6 Jhoan Duran – 2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 SO – 4.9 OppQual

#7 Ryan Jeffers – .067/.067/.067 – 15 AB, 1 H, 0 BB, 7 SO – 6.0 OppQual

#9 Brent Rooker – .316/.435/.368 – 19 AB, 6 H, 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 SO – 6.6 OppQual

The beauty of small sample sizes is that we can use great numbers to fuel our optimism while conversely ignoring ugly numbers because…small sample size. Ryan Jeffers…small sample size. Besides, for a catcher the important thing is learning the pitchers and building rapport, not worrying about a .133 OPS! Jhoan Duran’s two innings don’t give us much to work with, but the three strikeouts are nice. He was in the first round of cuts and would presumably be stretching out in the minor league camp, had things not been put on hold. He’s on the 40-man and will begin the year as a starter in AA. He should stick as a starter but could also serve as a late-season bullpen call-up. Brent Rooker didn’t flex his power like the first-tier group, but it’s there, and the three walks look nice.

Tier 3: Prospects 11 – 15

#11 Lewis Thorpe – DNP

#12 Gilberto Celestino – .174/.208/.348 – 23 AB, 4 H, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 SO – 6.0 OppQual

I think it’s safe to say Lewis Thorpe’s spring training was a disappointment. Coming into camp he had at least some hope of grabbing the fifth rotation spot, but he missed valuable time attending to a personal matter in Australia and was quickly sent down upon returning. However, Thorpe shouldn’t despair, as he’ll only be a phone call away and could see Minnesota sooner than later.

Gilberto Celestino was also included in the first round of cuts but he managed to squeeze in a pretty impressive amount of playing time due to Byron Buxton’s delayed start. The twenty-one-year-old held his own, and if he starts 2020 as hot as he finished 2019, his plus defense in center combined with the fact that he’s already on the 40-man roster could even make him an emergency option in center.

Tier 4: 16-20

#17 Edwar Colina – 4.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 SO – 5.4 OppQual

#18 Travis Blankenhorn – .154/.250/.231 – 13 AB, 2 H, 1 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 4 SO – 6.3 OppQual

Edwar Colina hasn’t yet been added to the 40-man roster but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him make a leap to the MLB bullpen at some point a la 2019 Brusdar Graterol. He should continue to get opportunities to start in AA and try to improve his changeup, but his 100-mph heater and slider combo have late-inning relief potential. Travis Blankenhorn is on the 40-man roster and theoretically offers third base depth, but he’s more likely to spend 2020 continuing to develop in the minors.

I hope you enjoyed a potentially meaningless breakdown of some likely meaningless numbers. With any luck we’ll get a meaningful season underway before too long, but until then, stay safe out there!

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