2016 Roster Projections: The Outfielders (Part 1)

I firmly believe we'll see Sano-Rosario-Arcia in the OF if the Sano to the OF talk is legit.

I firmly believe we'll see Sano-Buxton-Rosario in the OF. Time will tell.

Even if Buxton doesn't make the team because the Twins are insane I think you'll see Sano-Mastrionni/Benson/Sweeny-Rosario in the OF. This concept that Arcia has a spot without Buxton has never made sense to me. He would need a monster spring to get a starting job locked up. Otherwise I think the Twins have shown that they are willing to have a CF who can't hit much start the year with the idea that a young gun will come up.

And I like Arcia.  I just think he's a 4th OF this year pretty much no matter what.

Haven't they been quoted as saying he was brought up before he was ready?

 

I think they traded Hicks because they had NO CATCHERS other than Suzuki, and wanted a catcher. I think it has nothing to do with April, May, or June CF next year. 

Sure, but it was almost 3 months (counting DL time).

I think only one catcher is preferable to no CFs.

That better be the case.. An OF of Sano-Rosario-Arcia just makes me cringe thinking about it. 

I do think we'll see that on occasion, but won't be plan a out of camp.

{About Hicks}

He did not have to make a cultural transition or move across the world when starting professional baseball. {as compared to Kepler}

Not trying to make a huge issue here, but I think you take for granted the cultural adjustment African American players (ex. Hicks) have to make in the game of professional baseball.  Many people think that it should be an easier transition for African Americans because they are from the USA, but on every team in baseball, they are the minority.  Just saying - food for thought...............

80% of the people on Kepler's team look like him.  Kepler also speaks fluent English.   7% of the Twins last year (with expanded roster) looked like Hicks.  In 2014 Hicks was the only African American on the expanded roster.  Was it really an easier path for Hicks than for Kepler?

Most people think more about the transitions for Latino and International players in professional baseball compared to the true minority of the game (African Americans).   This is obviously another thread topic, but I wanted bloggers to think about their comments as it pertained to past and future roster moves in the Twins organization.  Not just Black and White all the time (pun intended) in regards to who has the easier cultural transition.  Seeing people who reflect your own image once and a while goes a long way in confidence and development.  

Is the lack of confidence amongst the fans, or the FO? If it was me, he would start, if for no other reason that they painted themselves into a corner with the "Sano Experiment"! They need coverage out there. I love Arcia, but even I would not put an OF of him, Sano, and either DanSan or Rosario out there. Not with the SO rate of Twins pitchers! As for trading Hicks, I personally think the logical thing to do would have been trade Plouffe, have Hicks for insurance on the OF. If as it appears Buxton is a question mark that would have made sense. The Twins needed a catcher. So someone was going to have to go. The choice to trade Hicks, instead of Plouffe, smells more like Ryan getting rid of a player the orginisation was frustrated with, than by trading from a common sense non prejudiced position. Hicks drove them crazy for two years, and that never bodes well in Twins Territory.

It's the fans. Twins FO is planning on rolling with him, even if they are (wisely) downplaying it in the offseason.

Speaking of Arcia and disasters, here is a comparison of 2015 MLB numbers:

 

Torii Hunter: .240/.293/.409, 89 OPS+ ; belongs to the Hall of Fame

Shane Robinson: .250/.299/.322, 70 OPS+ : Solid player
Byron Buxton: .209..250/.326, 55 OPS+ ; best thing since sliced bread.
Oswaldo Arcia: .276/.338/.379, 96 OPS+ ; disaster, let's throw him to the Lions (not the Detroit ones)

 

Arcia had nothing to prove in AAA and played like it.  Kinda hard to see people who perform worse than you (few names up there, plus Suzuki, plus a bunch of pitchers) getting longer leashes at the mlb-level, especially when the team is supposedly competing.  What Arcia did in Rochester does not matter.  He should have not been there in the first place.

 

I will start believer the Sano to the Outfield hoopla, if Plouffe is still with the team by Spring Training reporting time.  Before that, I take it as a Public Service Announcement.

So, using rate stats over wildly varied sample sizes of plate appearances again.

Arcia didn't get demoted to AAA for giggles, he was hurt (per usual) and was ticketed for a brief rehab that, based on his performance, needed to be extended. Unfortunately it was the whole year. Those are incredibly lame excuses being offered on his behalf.

Sure.  The PAs were organization/manager choice.  He worked with what was given to him. 

Not really, he got the PAs he deserved on merit.

I really like Arcia, want him to do well and think he could contribute mightily, but his season was a self-inflicted train wreck.

So, using rate stats over wildly varied sample sizes of plate appearances again.

 

Arcia didn't get demoted to AAA for giggles, he was hurt (per usual) and was ticketed for a brief rehab that, based on his performance, needed to be extended. Unfortunately it was the whole year. Those are incredibly lame excuses being offered on his behalf.

In one sentence you talk about sample size, in the following paragraph you say Arcia deserved to stay at AAA cuz he didn't hit in the 5-7 game rehab sample.  

In one sentence you talk about sample size, in the following paragraph you say Arcia deserved to stay at AAA cuz he didn't hit in the 5-7 game rehab sample.

Longer than that. And I suspect it was more than numbers that kept him down.

Maybe the reason you can't name a player whose hitting suffered because his fielding wasn't good was because if both were suffering he didn't last long in the bigs.  The impact doesn't have to be that dramatic either.  Can be as simple as a delay in his offensive progress.  A month, half a season or even a year or more.  Can be the difference between 50 home runs and 35 or between 35 home runs and 25.  Bottom line is with his offensive potential I want to make him as comfortable as possible.  Playing a new position does NOT lend itself to that.  No need to take any chances with this guy. 

But it's not on me to name an example, it's on the person claiming that struggling in the field will effect a player's hitting to provide evidence to support their claims. My whole point is there is no evidence for the claim, be it statistical or anecdotal. The fact that you can't come up with one example is evident that there is really nothing to back up this idea. There's a difference between a fact-based argument and "Well I think that this will happen." Evidence is what turns an opinion into a rational argument - and it's missing in this case.

And throwing made up numbers about HRs dropping isn't evidence, it's just a fairy tale. Baseball teams shouldn't be run by the Brothers Grimm.

You need to look no farther than our own backyard for a solid example of a guy who never blossomed as a hitter until he settled into a defensive position he felt comfortable with-That being Michael Cuddyer who bounce around defensively and bounced out to the infield a lot before he settled on a single defensive position in 2006.  If you want more ask any big league manager, scout or veteran player.  You'll get similar feedback.  Am I saying it is absolutely going to happen.  No.  What I am saying is  that we need to put this guy in the best frame of mind to be a great hitter.  Do we really want to take a chance of having to look back at some point in the future and saying we didn't to that?

(1) Michael Cuddyer is a terrible example because he had arguably his greatest stretch as a Twin in 2009 when Morneau went down and he switched to a new position, 1B, for the remainder of the season. Rather than being overmatched by his new position, he raked (OBP as 1B 1.052; as RF .817) and helped drag that Twins team back to the playoffs. He got MVP votes out of it. Clearly position doesn’t matter to Michael Cuddyer, who is comfortable playing wherever.

(2) But let’s pretend that’s not the same because it’s when he was an old vet. So let’s go look at Cuddy as a youngster.  Michael Cuddyer's OPS+ while playing mostly third from 2001 to 2005 was about 100 making him a pretty solid player - he didn't go into the tank because he played third. A more likely explanation for him hitting better in 2006 was that he turned 27 and entered his prime.

(3) And let’s take an even closer look at Cuddy’s splits from that pre-RF time (2002 to 2005). In every year but one he hit significantly better when playing 3B than when playing corner OF.  And that one season doesn’t weight it down - in aggregate he hit much better at 3B than as a corner OF.
 
(4) And Cuddy is a terrible example for this anyways.  Cuddyer played mostly 2B and 3B with the Twins in the minors, with less than 100 games in the OF. So he was moved to a position he was less comfortable with (like Sano may be asked to do) and then he hit better. A better example would be to find a player who played well at his natural position, was asked to move somewhere else where he sucked, and then moved back to his natural position and was great.  The anti-Danny Santana really.

(5) Did you ask a bunch of major leaguers and scouts? What is this feedback? How do you know so many managers and players? Because otherwise it’s just you making that claim and that doesn’t pass muster. That whole last bit sounds like one of those terrible columns full of platitudes and clichés that we all grew up reading in the Pioneer Press or Star Tribune.

The point is that there is no evidence to show that a player’s performance in the field has huge effects on his hitting. As long as Sano is playing everyday he’ll be fine – being able to play OF makes that more likely and is thus a good thing.

  Do we really want to take a chance of having to look back at some point in the future and saying we didn't to that?

As far as your last question goes, should we forbid him from changing his walk-up-to-the-plate music or from changing his sock color? Because those have an equal chance of screwing up his swing. If he doesn't hit well it won't be because of where he plays or what deodorant he uses or if he starts dating Jessica Simpson. It will be because the league figures something out about how to attack him.

If Buxton makes this team, Arcia is a no brainer 4th OF (Sano and Rosario in corners).

Buxton is going to play every day, but you have Rosario, Santana, and Escobar that could play CF.

Arcia should get 30 games in the OF if everyone is healthy all year. 20 at 1b and 30 at DH. Then he is the best bench bat I can remember half the time.

As good as Arcia was in his productive MLB season - He never hit for the power that ABW has shown in his short career.   ABW is a much better 4th OF option than Arcia.  Better range defensively and more productive career.   By accident he can hit for more power than the pinch hitters did for the Twins last year.  Throw in some 4th OF appearances and ABW will hit better than any 4th OF option they had last season.  His accidents would out perform last years numbers by a pinch hitter or 4th outfielder.  This way you don't waste the limited reps on a Kepler who is more of an everyday option (when time comes) anyways.