Article: Payroll and Roster Notes

[howieramone1406390264]

And, imo, you need two good catchers, both of which can hit and field.....that's better than Suzuki types catching 60 games or so.

 

It will take more than Kepler to get the catcher, so let's say goodbye to Polanco also, since this is just pretend anyway. Catcher has now become an organizational strength and we've picked up 2 or 3 more wins in 2014. Now what?

[Highabove]

How about this. The Twins are doing it just right. This is their last year to stockpile a very high draft pick so let's not spend an extra $30 million to go from a top 4 to 7 pick to a top 15 pick. That would make zero sense.

 

All the excitement about our prospects will keep the wolves at bay. Next year our drafting begins to pay off. Buxton, Sano, Pinto and Rosario could be in the lineup, with Maye starting and Stewart and a few other pitchers showing well in the high minors.

 

This is the year to watch the minors and next year begins the pay off at Target Field.

 

I guess this would not be a bad strategy for fans who can switch to the Travel Channel after the third inning. What do we say to the Two Million Fans who are needed to spend money at Target Field? Please watch another year of bad Baseball, it will help the draft.

[Guest USAFChief]

It will take more than Kepler to get the catcher, so let's say goodbye to Polanco also, since this is just pretend anyway. Catcher has now become an organizational strength and we've picked up 2 or 3 more wins in 2014. Now what?

Now hopefully youve filled the catcher position and added 2 or 3 wins every year for the next half decade.Houston gets to hope the minor leaguers beat that total. That could happen. Then again, they might never reach the majors, much less be above average regulars.

[howieramone1406390264]

Now hopefully youve filled the catcher position and added 2 or 3 wins every year for the next half decade.Houston gets to hope the minor leaguers beat that total. That could happen. Then again, they might never reach the majors, much less be above average regulars.

 

I've already conceded that, are the win now guys, now satisfied with 2 or 3 more wins for the next 5 years?

[Mike Sixel]

Out of one position? Almost guaranteed 3 wins, relative to two guys in A ball? Might be. I'd deal Kepler for sure. I'd maybe deal both, but I don't know how much they love Polanco. I think, in general, teams over value A ball prospects, and under value known quantities.

[nicksaviking]

I've barely read this debate, but for the record, I think the fact that both Kepler and Polanco require 40-man spots and are only in A ball probably hurts their value a bit.

[jokin]

Out of one position? Almost guaranteed 3 wins, relative to two guys in A ball? Might be. I'd deal Kepler for sure. I'd maybe deal both, but I don't know how much they love Polanco. I think, in general, teams over value A ball prospects, and under value known quantities.

 

You nailed it, Mike.

 

You trade for Castro this spring. You have 4 years of team-controlled cost, from age 26 through age 30, for a Catcher who is good both with the bat and glove, and has an Oliver WAR projection of 4.7/4.7/4.7/4.1 (not 2 or 3 WAR, as claimed by a poster). (It might cost you Kepler, but not much more, perhaps the Astros would even listen to a trade involving Pinto and a lesser prospect instead of Kepler- you still have Suzuki as a backup this year and Turner on the way soon).

 

There is no "now what?" You have a basic building block in place at a key position for the next run. Now, you begin the search for your next building block, say SS Yunel Escobar as a possible FA, who projects at 3.0-3.5 annual WAR over the next 4 years. (No more wondering if Polanco can or can't cut it at SS).

 

What then? The Marlins refuse to buy out Giancarlo Stanton's arb years, signing him to another one year/$6.5M last month, and it's reported that Stanton still isn't happy with the situation in Miami. Trade the necessary 2 or 3 better prospects to make this deal (it will be costly, but it shouldn't cost you Buxton or Sano), and you have 3 cost-controlled years with a 24-year old guy who is projected by Oliver to produce 4 straight years of 6.0+ WAR (with the chance to buy them out to sign him through age 30). No more wringing of hands about whether there is anybody who can play alongside Buxton when he eventually arrives. And now you have a potential top of the order reading Buxton/Mauer/Stanton/Sano. (Batting behind Mauer and in front of Sano would be the answer to Stanton's dream situation and out of his current Marlin nightmare).

 

These are just examples- and these 3 project to add up to 15 wins, per year, over the next several seasons..... as opposed to "Waiting for Godot" for the Twins Farm to finally all get called up and produce. Even if every prospect works out perfectly on their respective timetables, it still doesn't guarantee a pennant contender any time soon while they transitions and acclimate to the big leagues. For example, the rebuild with the World Series up-and-comers taking their roster spots took 6 years in the 80s and just about as long in the late 90s, early 00s for the perennial division contenders. Getting proven major leaguers to competently plug the holes and the question mark areas can short-cut that process considerably- and in fixing these positions, you aren't spending huge amounts of money that might curtail your efforts at acquiring FAs for other areas of need

[Major League Ready]

You nailed it, Mike.

 

You trade for Castro this spring. You have 4 years of team-controlled cost, from age 26 through age 30, for a Catcher who is good both with the bat and glove, and has an Oliver WAR projection of 4.7/4.7/4.7/4.1 (not 2 or 3 WAR, as claimed by a poster). (It might cost you Kepler, but not much more, perhaps the Astros would even listen to a trade involving Pinto and a lesser prospect instead of Kepler- you still have Suzuki as a backup this year and Turner on the way soon).

 

There is no "now what?" You have a basic building block in place at a key position for the next run. Now, you begin the search for your next building block, say SS Yunel Escobar as a possible FA, who projects at 3.0-3.5 annual WAR over the next 4 years. (No more wondering if Polanco can or can't cut it at SS).

 

What then? The Marlins refuse to buy out Giancarlo Stanton's arb years, signing him to another one year/$6.5M last month, and it's reported that Stanton still isn't happy with the situation in Miami. Trade the necessary 2 or 3 better prospects to make this deal (it will be costly, but it shouldn't cost you Buxton or Sano), and you have 3 cost-controlled years with a 24-year old guy who is projected by Oliver to produce 4 straight years of 6.0+ WAR (with the chance to buy them out to sign him through age 30). No more wringing of hands about whether there is anybody who can play alongside Buxton when he eventually arrives. And now you have a potential top of the order reading Buxton/Mauer/Stanton/Sano. (Batting behind Mauer and in front of Sano would be the answer to Stanton's dream situation and out of his current Marlin nightmare).

 

These are just examples- and these 3 project to add up to 15 wins, per year, over the next several seasons..... as opposed to "Waiting for Godot" for the Twins Farm to finally all get called up and produce. Even if every prospect works out perfectly on their respective timetables, it still doesn't guarantee a pennant contender any time soon while they transitions and acclimate to the big leagues. For example, the rebuild with the World Series up-and-comers taking their roster spots took 6 years in the 80s and just about as long in the late 90s, early 00s for the perennial division contenders. Getting proven major leaguers to competently plug the holes and the question mark areas can short-cut that process considerably- and in fixing these positions, you aren't spending huge amounts of money that might curtail your efforts at acquiring FAs for other areas of need

 

So, why have the Cubs, Pirates, and Astros not followed the blueprint above? The Astros payroll is about $60M less than the Twins last I checked. They should have made gigantic strides this year if the pratices described above are viable.

 

What GM of a last place team had done what is described above in the last 20 years.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You guys really know how to hijack a thread.

[jokin]

So, why have the Cubs, Pirates, and Astros not followed the blueprint above? The Astros payroll is about $60M less than the Twins last I checked. They should have made gigantic strides this year if the pratices described above are viable.

 

What GM of a last place team had done what is described above in the last 20 years.

 

The Cubs are on a 5 year rebuild, and have just finished the dumping phase and begun the accumulation phase. In the meantime, they are acquiring FA and trade candidates with flippable upside for even more prospects. The Pirates are one of the prime examples of a low payroll team that was convinced that continued losing would eventually give them enough quality draft picks to return to competitiveness. That effort largely failed and they lost a huge chunk of their fan base, even with the building of one of the best ballparks in baseball. That's why losing by design, alone, is such a dangerous strategy- you can include the Royals in that group- and they paid a heavy price. Since then, both the Pirates and the Royals niche has been acquiring veterans possibly due for bounceback or, in the case of the Royals- take a shot at competing for the pennant by acquiring Shields and other veteran pitchers. That strategy, in the case of the Pirates, was culminated in acquiring Liriano for peanuts, and has finally paid off, 20-some years after their last competitive teams. Both the Royals and Pirates are now well-positioned to stay relevant for awhile. The Astros are on the same type of long-terrm 5 year plan rebuild as the Cubs, again, first going through the process of casting off all the veterans and then rebuilding from the bottom up. They are making their first ventures back into acquiring potential-plus-value veterans this year.

 

I'd like to take a short-cut by learning from the case studies of the Pirates and Royals, imitating their successful moves and avoiding their mistakes. I'm really tired of long-term rebuilds, especially in a new park.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm happy to stop, Jeremy. I was asked a question, and answered. I'm happy for this to be about the actual payroll and roster.