2014 MLB Draft Thread

[nicksaviking]

I guess we have to disagree over the definition of loaded. By my count, here is what we have.

 

On the big league club, we have a former top 40 prospect in Hicks. And a 22 year old who had a .735 OPS between his ages 21-22.

 

We have the #1 or #2 overall minor league system in baseball. The #1 prospect we have is an OF. The number 2 prospect, could end up in the OF. #7 (Rosario) is almost a lock to end up in the OF. #12 (Harrison) will likely end up there. #14 and #15 (Walker and Kelpler) are OF. AND this is the easiest position to find free agents.

 

So I think you must really, really be high on Jackson to pick him over an arm like Kolek, who is going to throw upper 90's and where a replacement is a lot harder to find. Or an SS like Turner or Gatewood. I would argue something like Rosario/Hicks in LF and one of these guys at SS would be a better alternative to Pedro/Escobar/Punto/Casilla/Bartlett and Jackson. Or Kolek/and one of the OF over Jackson/Pelfrey type.

 

Arcia and Hicks would likely be in one of their final years of their rookie contract by the time Jackson is ready to play, and it's not like they're proving themselves at the MLB level. You don't pass on a guy in the draft because of Aaron Hicks, that's for sure.

 

That being said, I'm still not sold on Jackson yet and certainly don't want him at catcher. Drafting a HS catcher hasn't paid off for any team in over a decade.

[tobi0040]

Where did I say pick him over Kolek? Where did I even say I'd take him?

 

I said I'd move him, if they took him.

I said they aren't loaded in the OF. Hicks can't hit LH. Arcia is probably a good DH, and a good OF, but not sure. Buxton could be great. After that? Rosario clearly has issues, I wouldn't count on him being part of a "loaded" OF. And, you need three starting OF, a DH, and a 1B......that's five. I count Buxton and a bunch of question marks (I wish that wasn't true with Rosario, but it is now).

 

I was taking your we are not loaded in the OF and running with it!

 

We will have to disagree on the OF depth. Seems to me if we have 5-7 really talented guys, even some that have questions....we should be able to find 3. One is a lock in my eyes. This is also an easy position to fill on the FA market relative to SP or SS.

 

If we agree that Buxton is a near lock. We need Hicks to never figure it out, he is 23. Arcia to not improve defensively to at least be somewhere near average. Rosario never comes back or forgets how to hit when he does. Sano sticks at 3B. Plouffe can't justify a corner OF spot. Harrison can't hit his way into a corner OF spot (Mauer at 1B, Sano at 3B). Kepler does not pan out, etc. We don't ever move Mauer off 1B.

 

if just two of those things don't happen, we should have adequte OF depth.

[tobi0040]

Arcia and Hicks would likely be in one of their final years of their rookie contract by the time Jackson is ready to play, and it's not like they're proving themselves at the MLB level. You don't pass on a guy in the draft because of Aaron Hicks, that's for sure.

 

That being said, I'm still not sold on Jackson yet and certainly don't want him at catcher. Drafting a HS catcher hasn't paid off for any team in over a decade.

 

Arcia had a .735 OPS in his 21-22 season. I think he was 3rd on the team.

[maxisagod]

I was taking your we are not loaded in the OF and running with it!

 

I think very few people on this thread would pick Jackson over Kolek right now (though that might change over the next two months). It might help if people post their top five or six players to give this topic perspective.

 

Mine:

1) Kolek

2) Rodon

3) Beede

4) Aiken

5) Jackson

6) Hoffman

 

So, assuming My top 4 are already off the board do I go Jackson or Hoffman? If Hoffman numbers keep sliding, I'm taking the top hitter, leaving him at catcher for now, and going deep in pitching the rest of the draft for the 3rd year in a row. And in 5 years If Jackson is moved to the outfield and looks ready to dominate like Myers, then I'm trade proven OF talent for pitching prospects like they did with Span. Honestly, If Hicks turns into even a halfway decent hitter, at some point isn't being traded his fate anyway?

[Kwak]

The only "bat" worth taking over a possible #1 pitcher is the "slugger"--the guy you think is a 40-HR/year hitter. "Toolsy" (especially if using the Twins' definition) isn't enough, the guy has to be the power-hitter type. Think Frank Thomas. I think he went #5 OA when drafted--that's the type of hitter who is better than a #1 pitcher (ace).

[cmb0252]

The only "bat" worth taking over a possible #1 pitcher is the "slugger"--the guy you think is a 40-HR/year hitter. "Toolsy" (especially if using the Twins' definition) isn't enough, the guy has to be the power-hitter type. Think Frank Thomas. I think he went #5 OA when drafted--that's the type of hitter who is better than a #1 pitcher (ace).

 

Your expectations seem a bit high.

[tobi0040]

I think very few people on this thread would pick Jackson over Kolek right now (though that might change over the next two months). It might help if people post their top five or six players to give this topic perspective.

 

Rodon

Aiken

Kolek

Hoffman

Beede

Turner/Gatewood

 

I put Beede lower than most. Questions of his control worry me a bit. I would take the flamethrower without control questions over the one with, even if I am taking a rightly over a lefty.

[Willihammer]

Are people undervaluing Nick Gordon's power projection because his brother is such a sap at the plate? I am having a hard time getting a read on him or finding stats. Has he hit many homers (of the over the fence variety) as a high schooler?

[cmb0252]

Are people undervaluing Nick Gordon's power projection because his brother is such a sap at the plate? I am having a hard time getting a read on him or finding stats. Has he hit many homers (of the over the fence variety) as a high schooler?

 

Finding HS stats is always hard to do but here is Law's take on Gordon after seeing him last month:

 

"This year he has come into his own as a legitimate top-half-of-the-first-round prospect, and in my opinion the best middle infielder in the draft class, worthy of a top-10 pick."

 

"There's no doubt at all that he can stay at short. He's quite a bit stronger this year, adding 10-plus pounds of muscle, so he's better able to turn on good fastballs and has been showing more pop."

"His bat speed is fine, and I think he's a high-average, 10-12 homer guy at his peak, with well-above-average defense at shortstop -- the kind of prospect who would go high in any draft, but especially so in a draft class light on middle infielders like this year's."

 

Law gives him 50 future hit, 55 future power, and 60 future speed. Had him ranked #9 on his last board.

[Willihammer]

He's quite a bit stronger this year, adding 10-plus pounds of muscle, so he's better able to turn on good fastballs and has been showing more pop."

"His bat speed is fine

Bat speed... there's another thing. Why don't we have hard numbers?

 

Anyway. Another question. How much of a bonus should a player get for having two way talent. Eg. Gordon. MLB.com ranks his FB and CB as above average, in addition to his SS skills which all grade between 40-60.

 

Is he, overall, just a slightly above average talent? Is there star potential in any aspect of his game?

[Kwak]

Your expectations seem a bit high.

Teams should aim high. Taking the "safe" pick doesn't make sense. #1 pitchers (when you actually get one!) are so valuable. Sluggers, are worth more. The salaries in MLB reflect the value of stars vs. "good" players. Stars can be traded for a potential treasure chest of talent.

[twinsin17]

With a top 5 pick you want to draft for start potential. Definitely pick BPA, no question about it. Whatever perceived strength we have now will be different in 4-5 years when whoever we pick should be ready to contribute. Barring injury or an arm falling off, the top 4 seems pretty steady with Aiken/Kolek/Hoffman/Rodon in whatever order. Pick 5 is entirely more interesting. These are my top options for the Twins if those four are gone. I don't think there is much separation between them at this point but I am no scout and have not seen any of them live:

 

Jackson - most scouting reports say he has the best bat in the draft, too bad info on him is so hard to find. Looks like a gamer though with mature build and intensity to match. I bet his gets after it level is through the roof. Gardy, for one, places high value on that "tool".

Holmes - may have best three pitch ceiling with ability to command each offering. Thick, not much projection left but current ability is very good. On a side note, instead of Holmsy would Gardy call him Meat (as in Head)?

)

Beede - looked so good early, struggling so much now. Could be great if... Can he show the ability to make adjustments and get back on track to finish the year as strong as he started?

Gordon - solid across the board tools at premium position, high baseball IQ. Lots of projection with bat as he could add another 20+ lbs and not lose ability to play SS at a high level. Maybe recent success of Florida shortstops plays in his favor (Machado, Russell, Lindor, Baez, Arroyo).

Newcomb - bad competition but has the best pitching line of anyone not named Tyler Kolek. Big lefty who can throw hard and has decent secondary stuff, a bit unknown because he plays for Hartford. High risk/reward.

Zimmer - he is raking and shows all 5 tools. Tall, athletic, broad shoulders and looks like he could easily add 20-30 lbs. Could have big time power. Bonus that his brother is in KC and has improved greatly every year in college and now the minors. If his track record of success was longer he might be higher on the list.

[tobi0040]

With a top 5 pick you want to draft for start potential. Definitely pick BPA, no question about it. Whatever perceived strength we have now will be different in 4-5 years when whoever we pick should be ready to contribute. Barring injury or an arm falling off, the top 4 seems pretty steady with Aiken/Kolek/Hoffman/Rodon in whatever order. Pick 5 is entirely more interesting. These are my top options for the Twins if those four are gone. I don't think there is much separation between them at this point but I am no scout and have not seen any of them live:

 

Jackson - most scouting reports say he has the best bat in the draft, too bad info on him is so hard to find. Looks like a gamer though with mature build and intensity to match. I bet his gets after it level is through the roof. Gardy, for one, places high value on that "tool".

Holmes - may have best three pitch ceiling with ability to command each offering. Thick, not much projection left but current ability is very good. On a side note, instead of Holmsy would Gardy call him Meat (as in Head)?

)

Beede - looked so good early, struggling so much now. Could be great if... Can he show the ability to make adjustments and get back on track to finish the year as strong as he started?

Gordon - solid across the board tools at premium position, high baseball IQ. Lots of projection with bat as he could add another 20+ lbs and not lose ability to play SS at a high level. Maybe recent success of Florida shortstops plays in his favor (Machado, Russell, Lindor, Baez, Arroyo).

Newcomb - bad competition but has the best pitching line of anyone not named Tyler Kolek. Big lefty who can throw hard and has decent secondary stuff, a bit unknown because he plays for Hartford. High risk/reward.

Zimmer - he is raking and shows all 5 tools. Tall, athletic, broad shoulders and looks like he could easily add 20-30 lbs. Could have big time power. Bonus that his brother is in KC and has improved greatly every year in college and now the minors. If his track record of success was longer he might be higher on the list.

 

It is way too early to say the draft is set. Aiken was a borderline first rounder and moved to the top 5 in about a month.

 

I find it funny, most are dead set on BPA. Yet if we went into a fantasy football draft we would all load up on RB's in the first two rounds. It is really the opposite principle.

[Willihammer]

Piece today on fangraphs that looks at how the 5 pitcher tools translate to MLB success.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-best-pitching-tools-translate-to-the-majors/

 

By total WAR and total RA9-WAR, prospects recognized for their curveballs have more or less doubled the figures produced by pitchers recognized for their fastball, their slider, or their control.

 

Looking back at MLB.com's top 50 draft board (which is getting kinda old), they like toussaint's curve the best (70), followed by Hoffman and Holmes (65).

[gunnarthor]

Piece today on fangraphs that looks at how the 5 pitcher tools translate to MLB success.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-best-pitching-tools-translate-to-the-majors/

 

 

 

Looking back at MLB.com's top 50 draft board (which is getting kinda old), they like toussaint's curve the best (70), followed by Hoffman and Holmes (65).

 

Well, I like Toussaint a lot but I don't think he'll be in the conversation at 5 but Hoffman could certainly fall to us.

[Willihammer]

Control was 2nd in starting% but 3rd according to median RA9-WAR, and tied for 3rd in median WAR with fastball.

 

Take Cole Hamels out of the top control guys and you are left with a pretty lackluster group.

[nicksaviking]

Arcia had a .735 OPS in his 21-22 season. I think he was 3rd on the team.

 

I like Arcia, but that's not a ringing endorsement, and it's hardly impressive for a corner OF.

 

I'm not high on Jackson, but still, if he's the best player you don't pass on him because Arcia had a .735 OPS last year. You probably shouldn't pass on him if Arcia had a .935 OPS either.

[nicksaviking]

Control was 2nd in starting% but 3rd according to median RA9-WAR, and tied for 3rd in median WAR with fastball.

 

Take Cole Hamels out of the top control guys and you are left with a pretty lackluster group.

 

The front office should be reading that. Exceptional control does not trump exceptional movement or velocity.

[cmb0252]

It is way too early to say the draft is set. Aiken was a borderline first rounder and moved to the top 5 in about a month.

 

I find it funny, most are dead set on BPA. Yet if we went into a fantasy football draft we would all load up on RB's in the first two rounds. It is really the opposite principle.

 

Aiken was borderline first rounder? You might be confused with a different pitcher. Starting the year MLB.com had him #9, BA had him #9, Jim Callis had him #9, and Law had Aiken #7. He was considered the top HS left hander from the get go.

 

As for comparing the real draft vs fantasy draft that is kind of silly.

[cmb0252]

Piece today on fangraphs that looks at how the 5 pitcher tools translate to MLB success.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-best-pitching-tools-translate-to-the-majors/

 

 

 

Looking back at MLB.com's top 50 draft board (which is getting kinda old), they like toussaint's curve the best (70), followed by Hoffman and Holmes (65).

 

Jim Callis said they will be updating the board in a week or two. They are still working on top 20s I think. Also, great link.

[tobi0040]

Aiken was borderline first rounder? You might be confused with a different pitcher. Starting the year MLB.com had him #9, BA had him #9, Jim Callis had him #9, and Law had Aiken #7. He was considered the top HS left hander from the get go.

 

As for comparing the real draft vs fantasy draft that is kind of silly.

 

I guess I was wrong about how far Aiken has come. But moving from 9 to 2 or so in a month or two, and Rodon going from absolutely without question 1-1 to maybe not in the same time frame is my point. Saying the top four are set right now is a bit early. Last year Gray made a huge leap up after April 9th and Mannea went from top 5 to out of the first round.

 

The point of the fantasy comment was we factor in position, as the difference between the first SS and 15th SS is huge, whereas the difference between the 1st and 15th corner OF is not the same.

[cmb0252]

Teams should aim high. Taking the "safe" pick doesn't make sense. #1 pitchers (when you actually get one!) are so valuable. Sluggers, are worth more. The salaries in MLB reflect the value of stars vs. "good" players. Stars can be traded for a potential treasure chest of talent.

 

I'm not saying teams should aim high. I'm saying asking for a 40+ HR player, 80 grade power, is asking a lot. One or two of those might be in any draft and they normally have several glaring holes in their game.

 

Jackson has star potential. Here is how Law describes his bat :

" All-Star offensive upside in the long run no matter where he plays."

[tobi0040]

I like Arcia, but that's not a ringing endorsement, and it's hardly impressive for a corner OF.

 

I'm not high on Jackson, but still, if he's the best player you don't pass on him because Arcia had a .735 OPS last year. You probably shouldn't pass on him if Arcia had a .935 OPS either.

 

With a filter on players with 400 or more AB's last year, a .735 OPS was 34th among all OF. 7-8 of those ahead are primarily CF. So a middle of the pack corner OF at 21-22. Hardly "not proving himself at the MLB level". The guy hit 24 HR between MLB and AAA.

[cmb0252]

I guess I was wrong about how far Aiken has come. But moving from 9 to 2 or so in a month or two, and Rodon going from absolutely without question 1-1 to maybe not in the same time frame is my point. Saying the top four are set right now is a bit early. Last year Gray made a huge leap up after April 9th and Mannea went from top 5 to out of the first round.

 

The point of the fantasy comment was we factor in position, as the difference between the first SS and 15th SS is huge, whereas the difference between the 1st and 15th corner OF is not the same.

 

I understand what you were trying to get at but I feel your grasping at straws here. The difference between the two is so significant I just can't make the comparison. Unless you are in a 30 team, dynasty, single position, and minor league baseball draft I just don't see the point of comparing.

 

This BPA vs need convo comes up every year over and over and over again. While you and I might have different boards/drafting styles, which is fine, in the end the only thing that matters is the Twins board. The Twins will take BPA on their board regardless of position. That is just how they draft.

[tobi0040]

I understand what you were trying to get at but I feel your grasping at straws here. The difference between the two is so significant I just can't make the comparison. Unless you are in a 30 team, dynasty, single position, and minor league baseball draft I just don't see the point of comparing.

 

This BPA vs need convo comes up every year over and over and over again. While you and I might have different boards/drafting styles, which is fine, in the end the only thing that matters is the Twins board. The Twins will take BPA on their board regardless of position. That is just how they draft.

 

I will be very surprised if we take anything other than a starting pitcher or SS. If we feel a guy is there that is hands down a better talent, we will take him. But if we grade out an OF slightly higher than a pitcher or SS, I think we take the SP or SS and I think that is the right approach.

 

Look at the Vikings. We don't have a QB. You need a QB to win. They almost never hit the FA market and if they do, 12-15 teams are after him. So if we grade out an LB slightly higher, should we take the LB? Seems crazy to me. Starting pitching and QB's are similar.

[InfraRen]

Darren Wolfson @DarrenWolfson

Now's a good time to look ahead to the June draft. Spoke w/ Mike Radcliff. #MNTwins down to 8 guys for 5th pick -- 5 or 6 of those pitchers.

[tobi0040]

Darren Wolfson @DarrenWolfson

Now's a good time to look ahead to the June draft. Spoke w/ Mike Radcliff. #MNTwins down to 8 guys for 5th pick -- 5 or 6 of those pitchers.

 

While I doubt we have totally ruled that many guys out at this point. If this is accurate it is likely Aiken, Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek, Beede, Jackson, Gatewood, and Turner.

 

Here is a projection from March 23rd, 2013 for the 2013 draft.

 

 

Frazier #1, he went 5th.

Denny #4, he went in the 3rd round and signed.

Gray #6, he went #3.

Kohl # 9, he went #4.

Manaea #12, he went 34th.

 

It is early.

 

 

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/3/23/4139314/2013-mlb-mock-draft-version-one

[InfraRen]

I'd be happy with anyone in that last. At this point, probably with Gatewood/Turner at the end of the list for me.

[twinsin17]

While I doubt we have totally ruled that many guys out at this point. If this is accurate it is likely Aiken, Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek, Beede, Jackson, Gatewood, and Turner.

 

It is doubtful in my eyes that 3 of the 8 are bats and if there are 3 bats it is safe to include Jackson, potentially Turner and likely not Gatewood. I value Gordon and Zimmer over both Turner and Gatewood.

[CwK]

It is doubtful in my eyes that 3 of the 8 are bats and if there are 3 bats it is safe to include Jackson, potentially Turner and likely not Gatewood. I value Gordon and Zimmer over both Turner and Gatewood.

 

Agreed. Gordon is further away than Turner but has a lot more potential. I'm leary of Hoffman's so-so Spring, but pitchers are always welcome.