Article: Should Twins Offer Bronson Arroyo A Third Year?

[bphat1]

If Arroyo can keep his ERA somewhere in the 4.25 neighborhood and have a .500 record in that 3rd year, I would take that. I don't see any reason he would decline that much at age 40 given how he pitches now.

[DaveW]

Overpaying in money and more importantly years for a mediocre player is a bad idea, the absolute best case scenario is that he earns the contract and nothing more. Most likely the 3rd year bites you in the ass in this case.

 

If you are going to over pay, it needs to be for someone who has the ability to not only earn the contract, but exceed it by a pretty decent margin if things break the right way.

[bphat1]

SpiritofVodkaDave, I think that's the case if overpaying ANY player would get them to come to Minnesota, but I guess my argument is that is not the case. I think when the Twins were winning the AL Central most years in the '00's, it was an easier sell. Now it appears we're going to HAVE to overpay for average guys to come here. At least that is the way it's been presented around here and in other media outlets. I also don't think Arroyo for 12M for the first 2 years is an overpay at all. As you say, the 3rd year is the killer, but that's the likely overpay the Twins will have to throw out there. If you were Arroyo would you take a 2yr deal with an option for a 3rd from the Twins, or take the exact same contract from any other team except the Astros? If I'm almost 40 years old and winning is important to me, I'm going elsewhere unless you guarentee me that last year...

[DaveW]

SpiritofVodkaDave, I think that's the case if overpaying ANY player would get them to come to Minnesota, but I guess my argument is that is not the case. I think when the Twins were winning the AL Central most years in the '00's, it was an easier sell. Now it appears we're going to HAVE to overpay for average guys to come here. At least that is the way it's been presented around here and in other media outlets. I also don't think Arroyo for 12M for the first 2 years is an overpay at all. As you say, the 3rd year is the killer, but that's the likely overpay the Twins will have to throw out there. If you were Arroyo would you take a 2yr deal with an option for a 3rd from the Twins, or take the exact same contract from any other team except the Astros? If I'm almost 40 years old and winning is important to me, I'm going elsewhere unless you guarentee me that last year...

 

I understand your points, however, Arroyo isn't the type of guy you over pay for. Considering:

1. He is getting old, and 100 years of baseball data indicates he is a very very strong candidate for regression each passing season.

2. He isn't anything special, yeah he is a nice #4/#5 but those aren't that difficult to find. If you want to sign him to a 2 year/20 mil deal, fine, I can live with that as its fair. But to overpay him just to convince him to sign here is wrong, again if you are going to do it, do it with a player that can exceed the contract. (Garza, Kazmir, Nolasco perhaps?)

[jay]

even if I grant you that as fact, it doesn't address the primary issue spelled out above...it won't result in more wins becaus opposing pitchers will get the same benefit when they pitch in TF.

 

Maybe this is the part that isn't clicking... Arroyo (and other RH flyball pitchers) stand to benefit more in comparison to those opposing pitchers due to the tendencies of their batted balls. It can absolutely benefit the Twins more than others.

[PseudoSABR]

While Arroyo will be saved of giving up a few home runs, Twin left handed batters like Arcia and Mauer will also lose a few home runs. The net will be insignificant.

Well, if the net (of the LHed power benefit/detriment) is insignificant with Arroyo on the roster, it's certainly a negative net without him.

 

Getting players who are benefited by our homepark can only help, no matter how many players who are harmed by our homepark. Though, like many have suggested, what park effect TF actually has is pretty nebulous.

[goulik]

Can a contract have multiple options. For example Team option at same amount as first two years, Player option at half of first two years with a two million buyout...

 

If so, this would be the route to go on a third year...

[TheLeviathan]

I don't understand why the idea of a home park advantage for some players is being attacked here. The concept isn't imaginary and it only makes sense to factor it into personnel decisions. Especially if there is strong evidence to indicate it may be in play - as several posters have done an excellent job pointing out. It's just a shrewd component to include in the decision making process.

[Twins Twerp]

mlbtraderumors.com says the Twins are still hot on Arroyo. If we get him for 2 plus a team option, that would be clutch. Everytime another pitcher signs elsewhere, Arroyo gets sexier and sexier.