Morneau and his home/road splits

[DaveW]

Just realized this today...pretty strange, any ideas on why there would be such a huge difference in numbers? Is it the traveling that wears him down or something?

 

home: .320/.386/.536!/.905

Road: .219/.285/.302/.587

 

So basically when he is at target field this year, Morneau is playing at a very good rate for a first baseman with a .905 OPS, if he could somehow get his road splits to be less then .150 OPS away, you could be looking at a guy next year who could be counted on producing a .850 OPS throughout the whole season.

 

Also his BABIP at home is .100 points higher then his BABIP on the road (.257) what does this mean?

[jorgenswest]

It probably is simply random variation that happens with smaller samples.

[DaveW]

It probably is simply random variation that happens with smaller samples.

I don't think this describes it correctly, we are talking about over 450 PA combined thus far.

[ashbury]

I don't think this describes it correctly, we are talking about over 450 PA combined thus far.

 

Right. So it's ~200 PA for each of these splits - and at those volumes of opportunities you can still occasionally see head-scratchers like this. Little things like the mix of lefties and righties in the road games could play a role for instance. Today's early game moved him in the right direction FWIW.

[jorgenswest]

I don't think this describes it correctly, we are talking about over 450 PA combined thus far.

 

OPS stabilizes at 500 plate appearances for individuals. That sample can't be accomplished in a single season comparing splits.

 

When Samples Become Reliable | FanGraphs Baseball

[Brock Beauchamp]

While I know OPS stabilizes in a little less than a full season, it's hard to deny that the gulf between those two numbers is staggering. A .100 OPS difference is "meh, statistical anomaly". A .320 OPS difference is "WTF".

[DaveW]

While I know OPS stabilizes in a little less than a full season, it's hard to deny that the gulf between those two numbers is staggering. A .100 OPS difference is "meh, statistical anomaly". A .320 OPS difference is "WTF".

Yeah not to mention the whole hitting a lot more HR at Target Field (not hr friendly) vs the other parks

[jorgenswest]

I looked at the previous three years.

 

2010 and 2012 better in the road.

2011 and 2013 better at home.

 

Since Target Field opened his OPS is .793. His Target Field OPS is .804. Numbers stabilize when the sample is large enough.

[DaveW]

Yeah, I got that, but he is also a bit if a unique case with that whole concussion keeping him out for a year or so.

 

.300+ difference in OPS is not just a statistical anomaly

[snepp]

.300+ difference in OPS is not just a statistical anomaly

 

 

I think just the opposite, that's precisely what it is, an anomaly.

[diehardtwinsfan]

As someone who used to travel quite a bit, I can personally attest to the fact that my body doesn't adjust well to it. Not sure if that's what is going on with Justin, but he's also dealing with that concussion and his first full season in a very very very long time.