What Would It Take for the Twins to Re-Sign Ryan Jeffers?

[MeleMouth]

FanGraphs crowdsource has Bauers at 3/$51. There are good arguments that Jeffers should be worth more than Bauers, including that he's younger yet has a longer track record, and especially if you consider that he could catch and then switch to first base for a few years. 

[Coach]

4 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Just a mathematical comment to add.  The Twins already have $23M allotted to Jeffers for 2027.  So a 3-year $50M offer is actually a 2-year extension for $27M ($13.5M AAV).

Nice catch!

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I think the national guys are low on the AAV, I think it’s 20M minimum and might push to match the QO earning.

And I’d still pay it. There is just so little on the free agent market I want. If he’s willing to sign prior to free agency, I’d take the bird in the hand over risking losing out on Arozarena, Suzuki or Lowe. Pass on pretty much any other offensive free agent.

And I still pursue one of those three guys presuming Tom Pohlad was being truthful about expanding the payroll and 155M is the floor. As it should be.

Except this hasn't been the case historically. Teams who want catching help will only overpay so much before changing their attention on the trade market where there are plenty of as good/better options for much cheaper than that.

[bjorks]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

This thread has a number of thoughtful comments covering a return of Jeffers versus the cost opportunity of that decision. It is easy to see the support for Jeffers and also easy the support for strengthening the roster elsewhere.

It seems like these discussions always come back to budget and nobody appears to have any idea of even the range of where the roster expenditures will rest in 2027. The Opening Day payroll for last season was just under $105M. Most people would agree that a 25% increase is significant, which would put the number for 2027 around $131M. The voices of anger will scream (perhaps rightfully) about the past cuts. Thus I feel that the Twins should be considering a budget of $150M. A higher number, while sweet for addressing team needs, might not be supportable by resources. That I do not know; I cannot know that information.

In consideration of the above, and using the general numbers currently for 2027, the 2027 payroll sits around $120M. Adding Jeffers brings back a bat that people like but it constrains the moves the team can further make. It also pushes back on a definitive goal that was slowly introduced last season, the need of improving the defense. Pushing back against that would seem counterproductive, at least to me. The pitchers need help from the guy they throw to.

So it would take two things to bring back Ryan Jeffers. First, the team would have to backtrack on their movement towards fielding a better defensive team. Second, the Twins would be largely returning the same basic roster they currently employ because the budget is unlikely to go beyond $150M and even that seems like a bit of a stretch. 

I would rather the team make aggressive moves to add  Jazz Chisholm on a 1 year high paying contract where he can rebuild his market value or sign the steady predictable Brandon Lowe. I would also hope the club can complete trades, hopefully 2-3. 

The beauty of it is that we just watch, guess like crazy, and then see what happens. The past practice has been largely disappointing. What will this November bring?

We also have to remember there are 29 other teams with various sized pocket books who are trying to improve their teams also. 

Falvy on KFAN had some interesting points about there's 2 ways to win and it seems like for mid/small market teams the chance they have is defense and contact hitters vs. sluggers as the sluggers out price themselves. 

Makes you wonder about bringing someone like Arraez back based on defensive metrics at 2B. I love what the Padres did with him batting him 4th and seems to fit the model Falvy referred to. The path seems to be leaning if we truly have 2 GG players in Lee/Houston on the left to possibly investing in the right. Who knows what that looks like moving forward. 

As much as I've advocated to resign Jeffers it seemingly is as much due to necessity as anything because of again...the alternative who is Victor Caratini. I'd rather have a bit of an offensive outlier at a premium position and sacrifice defensive metrics than a no-bat player. The team that scores more still wins. 

[nicksaviking]

22 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Except this hasn't been the case historically. Teams who want catching help will only overpay so much before changing their attention on the trade market where there are plenty of as good/better options for much cheaper than that.

Is there someone better available in a trade? The clock is going to run fast this year with the CBA expiring. Teams are going to have to decide to either pony up early, or risk missing out all together if they don’t have an answer before time runs out.

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Is there someone better available in a trade? The clock is going to run fast this year with the CBA expiring. Teams are going to have to decide to either pony up early, or risk missing out all together if they don’t have an answer before time runs out.

Every player in baseball is available in a trade and Jeffers is no where near the best catcher in MLB. He's "average" for a starter