Twins 2027 Arbitration Decisions: Who Stays, Who Goes?

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, weitz41 said:

I get what you're saying. Sure, there's a real chance you have a roster spot of two filled you weren't expecting. I don't see a 40-man crunch and August trade deadline can clean out the guys you don't move.

WAR to me isn't the end all be all but it's a decent starting point when looking at your teams' roster.

Just using Baseball reference as a neutral guide. Let say for Ober. in 2026 he managed 1.8 WAR over 130+ innings. 1.8 x 8 Mil/WAR. That's 14.4 Mil in value for 6.9 Mil projected (2027) salary. That doesn't seem like something most teams not called the Dodger or Yankees would pass on to quickly. 2026 Larnach 1.4 WAR, Lewis .9 WAR, Nance .7. Just pointing out there's value there you don't want to just discard to open a roster spot is all.

Way too risky to tender guys you haven't got a trade for, or don't want on the roster. IMO, of course. I really don't want the same team back, but if they sign a guy for millions, they aren't going to just DFA him later if no one will trade for him. 

[weitz41]

20 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The average cost paid per WAR is not the same as value.  Nobody is paying Bailey Ober $14.4M.  Just as nobody would pay $24M/year for Brooks Lee.  A lot of free agents drastically underperform which makes the average WAR per dollar spent much lower than expected. 

I pointed out WAR just to show there's trade value there compared to the actual salary. 

[weitz41]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Way too risky to tender guys you haven't got a trade for, or don't want on the roster. IMO, of course. I really don't want the same team back, but if they sign a guy for millions, they aren't going to just DFA him later if no one will trade for him. 

True, but couldn't DFAing a bunch of guys without replacements end up being as bad or worse. I guess I'd rather have a floor of what's already here than no floor.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, weitz41 said:

True, but couldn't DFAing a bunch of guys without replacements end up being as bad or worse. I guess I'd rather have a floor of what's already here than no floor.

That's what the Twins have been doing for the last decade and it's not worked out so good.  They have plenty OF depth and one key acquisition at 1B or 2B would allow them to move Lewis.  What would be really great would be if Keaschall could play quite a bit at 1B.  That would allow them to hide Keaschall's defense.  

Getting a good 2B and putting Keaschall at 1B/Of and Clemmens at 1B/OF gives this team way more ceiling IMO.  We also gain ceiling by moving on from Ober.  One of the young guys has to be better if we are going to improve this team.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, weitz41 said:

True, but couldn't DFAing a bunch of guys without replacements end up being as bad or worse. I guess I'd rather have a floor of what's already here than no floor.

Buxton, Keaschell, Jenkins, ERod, Martin, Roden (who outhit and out Ds Larnach) are all on the roster.....and Clemons can play OF too. How much depth do you want, exactly?

[Major League Ready]

26 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Buxton, Keaschell, Jenkins, ERod, Martin, Roden (who outhit and out Ds Larnach) are all on the roster.....and Clemons can play OF too. How much depth do you want, exactly?

They might also have Kreidler or Ross as a bench player.  They could have a roster with 7 guys that can play better OF than Larnach.  If they can trade him before the arbitration deadline, great but I sure am not worried about Larnach leaving a hole in the roster.