Post Deadline - Record and 2027 Draft Lottery Odds

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I did this last year after the trade deadline.   It was interesting enough I'll try it again.   Lets see if the Twins can make a playoff run.  

Twins Record     56-57

Chances of Playoff 27%

They have the 16th best record

Current Lottery odds

#1 Pick -  Less than 1%     

Top 6 Pick - 8.7%

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

56-58

Ill update the odds tomorrow,  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

56-58 

Playoff Chances 25%

Lottery odds

#1 - 1%

Top 6- 10%

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

56-59   2nd straight loss to Royals

Lottery oddss

1st pick. 1.28%

Top 6  12.6%. 
 

updated playoff odds tomorrow but below 25%.  Disappointing even with a strong start from Kremer. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Twins chances of the playoffs are slipping.  Now down to 22%

Another team passed the Twins for lottery odds.  

Pick 1 - 1.63%

Top 6 - 16%

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Nice win. Lee, Lewis and Ober were big tonight. 
 

57-59

Playoff odds 26%

 

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

Draft lottery odds already? I love it!

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Twins with offensive breakout, a rookie hitting a home run in his first game and the bullpen closing it out against one of the best teams in baseball. This team hits velocity better than soft tossers,  good thing we face a lot of good teams down the stretch. 
 

Record 58-59 

Playoff chances - Jumped to 35% 👀.  Baseball reference is different but has jumped from 11% to 22%. 
 

Lottery odds still 14th best. 
1st pick 1%

Top 6. 9%

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

After yesterdays loss the Twins odds for the playoffs and lottery chances remained the same. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

The Twins had a hard fought series with the Brewers,  but lost the final game and series in extras on Sunday.  Even though going 3-6,  The Twins still remain with pretty close to the same odds of the playoffs as a week ago.  

Playoff chances  -  28%

Draft Lotter

1st pick -  1.25%

Top 6 - 12.5%  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Going to be a little more hit and miss the next couple of weeks.   The Twins were swept by Philly.  Wasted 5 good innings from Kremer and a grand slam by Lee.  Somehow they are only 1 1/2 behind the last playoff spot.  

Record  60-65

Playoff chances   18%

Drafty Lottery  

1st Pick  - 2%

Top 6 -  19.8%

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

The Twins got a much needed win.   Now 61-65

Playoff Chances   22%

Draft Lottery 

1st Pick - 1.3 %

Top 6  - 12%

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Won the series against the Braves now going for the sweep. Solid starting pitching - Bell with the homer, Jeffers with 2 run double and the bullpen and Gomez closed it out. 
 

Playoff odds on espn back up to 30%

[Riverbrian]

I'll check this thread daily. 

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

4 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'll check this thread daily. 

 

Well I do my best, this part of the year I struggle a bit more as we have lots of activities. 

[Riverbrian]

You just catch up when you can. They will keep for a day or a weekend. I keep a daily Win/Loss tracking sheet and you just catch up when you can.  

In the end odds are odds but the data has value when you track the movement daily with your own data entry watching the wheels turn in real time. 

I will have no doubt in my mind that you will be/are someone who will have more perspective on what two games out on September 12th actually means because of the work you are putting in. 

And I appreciate your sharing it.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Taj Bradley with a strong day, Culpepper and Clemens came through with the bats and the bullpen and Gomez closed out the sweep.   

Twins hold the final spot in the playoffs

Record - 63-65

Playoff Percentages  39.2%    (5 teams in the AL less than 2 wins behind)

Lottery odds - will take a break on this as we are currently in playoffs and would not be eligible for lottery.   

 

Edit - The Alex Jackson recall win streak continues

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

That was a bad series - a sweep puts us back right before the Atlanta Sweep.  

Record 63-68

Playoff odds  -  20.4%

Lottery odds

#1 pick    1.29%

Top 6     12.9%

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Another tough week - 

Record  -  65-72

Playoff odds   -    5.5%  Ouch

Lottery odds

#1 pick  2.1%

Top 6  20.3%

 

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

The Twins got a win.  

Playoff odds now 7.2%  

If I were a betting man I would say the Twins go on a winning streak, whether stringing them together or winning 7-8 games out of a 10 game stretch.    Just need the starting pitching to provide some good performances.   

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

After an up and down week, things look dire on the playoff front. 
 

playoff odds 4%

#1 pick.    2.1%

Top 6.       20.2%

[I Miss The Lakes]

On 9/1/2026 at 12:51 PM, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The Twins got a win.  

Playoff odds now 7.2%  

If I were a betting man I would say the Twins go on a winning streak, whether stringing them together or winning 7-8 games out of a 10 game stretch.    Just need the starting pitching to provide some good performances.   

Thanks for this thread Hawkeye.
p.s. I really hope you are, in fact, NOT a betting man.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

44 minutes ago, I Miss The Lakes said:

Thanks for this thread Hawkeye.
p.s. I really hope you are, in fact, NOT a betting man.

Only on stocks my friend. 

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

On 9/2/2026 at 2:51 AM, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The Twins got a win.  

Playoff odds now 7.2%  

If I were a betting man I would say the Twins go on a winning streak, whether stringing them together or winning 7-8 games out of a 10 game stretch.    Just need the starting pitching to provide some good performances.   

A few more timely hits would be nice too. At this point I'm focusing more on the lottery odds!

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Twins with a gutty performance.  A solid 5 innings from Kremer and Clemens with the big hit and the bullpen closed it out to get the win.  Things are getting tight on the playoff front.  We have 4 teams in front of us - Cleveland, Toronto Texas and Baltimore.    The good news is 6 of our next 16 is against Cleveland and Texas.  We really need sweeps in both series.  I am thinking the Twins need to go at least 13-3,  maybe 14-2 down the stretch to get in but there is still a chance.   The next 4 games are huge.   We need to go 3-1 and if there was ever a time for a winning streak it is now.   

Playoff odds -  3.1%

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

After a disappointing loss, odds are down to 2.5%. Draft odds remain  the same. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Playoff odds down to 1.2%. There are 5 teams all grouped around same record for lottery odds. There could be be significant volatility in the next week on their odds. Could vary from 20% chance of top 6 pick to as high as 60%.