MLB OF lineup vs. AAA OF lineup

[SteveLV]

So Larnach/Martin, Buxton and Wallner vs. Gonzalez/Roden, Jenkins and Rodriguez.

Depending on Buxton's health, pretty good argument Twins have more talent in St. Paul than in Mpls....

Just saying.

[amjgt]

What about the health of the AAA guys? Buxton played 1 less game last year (126) than Rodriguez and Jenkins’ combined totals between AA and AAA (127)

[amjgt]

I am high on Roden and low on Larnach, but if either Rodon or Gonzalez have Larnach’s career, realistically that’s probably above a 50th percentile outcome. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, amjgt said:

I am high on Roden and low on Larnach, but if either Rodon or Gonzalez have Larnach’s career, realistically that’s probably above a 50th percentile outcome. 

I think Roden hitting like Larnach but playing above average defense is about fifty fifty. 

[amjgt]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think Roden hitting like Larnach but playing above average defense is about fifty fifty. 

Probably true. His 50th percentile offensive outcome is probably a higher average than Larnach and a similar OPS, so mostly a wash overall. 

The advantage gained by Roden's defense probably offsets the known of Larnach's career health. He hasn't exactly been the picture of health, but he also hasn't really spent a ton of time on the IL. Maybe that's a little recency bias though.

The 50th percentile health outcome for just about any major leaguer has to be below what Larnach has done health-wise for his career.