Rebooting Royce Lewis

[stringer bell]

A major part of Lewis' struggles in the second half of '24 and most of '25 had to do with health IMHO. He came back from injury too soon, particularly in 2025. He looked tentative and seemed to have lost confidence. He played better at the end of the season, although his hitting continued to be inconsistent. Getting his head in the right place might unlock his game changing ability (again). 

I think Royce will continue to have inconsistent success as a hitter due to how many moving parts are in his swing. He's got enough talent (IMHO) to still produce good numbers despite the inconsistency. That he showed that he could be an asset on the bases and in the field in 2025 adds to his value. 

I'm thinking Lewis will have a good year and cement himself in the middle of the Twins lineup in 2026.

[TopGunn#22]

There is no way, in any rational sense that Royce Lewis, as of TODAY would have roughly the same trade value as a Ryan McMahon NYCTK.  While McMahon has shown more on his resume at this point, he's currently on a 6-year, $70 million dollar contract in which the Yanks owe him $16 million for 2026 and $16 million for 2027.  Lewis is under team control thru the 2028 season was paid just $1.625 million last season.  

Yes, I'll acknowledge that if Lewis struggles for another couple of years, his value will tank.  But just using the model of BBTV as a comparison, Lewis has a value of 19.4.  Prior to being traded to the Yankees Ryan McMahon had a NEGATIVE value.  A. NEGATIVE. VALUE.  

Sometimes I agree with you, and sometimes I don't.  This is one I don't.  I think you typed that comment as a flippant remark, but didn't fully consider what you were saying.  

I appreciate that Nick Nelson put this piece out there because it appears the Twins FO is banking on a big season from Lewis.  Other than Buxton staying healthy (because if he's healthy, he WILL produce), Lewis busting out with an entire season of 2023 2nd half and playoffs could actually make the Twins viable competitors for a Division Title or Wild Card. 

I think there is a LOT of hope on TD that Twins fans will see the GOOD Royce Lewis in 2026.  Realistically, we know the chances are slimmer than better we will.  But without the GOOD Royce Lewis, the Twins have no chance.  

NYCTK, here is something that I agree with you about, and it's probably not a popular position on TD.  I think NOT trading Ryan, Buxton and Jeffers is a mistake.  Maybe at the deadline they still will, but I'm not sure they wouldn't get value now then at the break.  I could support an all-in rebuild more than an attempt to "compete" in 2026.  

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

There is no way, in any rational sense that Royce Lewis, as of TODAY would have roughly the same trade value as a Ryan McMahon NYCTK.  While McMahon has shown more on his resume at this point, he's currently on a 6-year, $70 million dollar contract in which the Yanks owe him $16 million for 2026 and $16 million for 2027.  Lewis is under team control thru the 2028 season was paid just $1.625 million last season.  

Yes, I'll acknowledge that if Lewis struggles for another couple of years, his value will tank.  But just using the model of BBTV as a comparison, Lewis has a value of 19.4.  Prior to being traded to the Yankees Ryan McMahon had a NEGATIVE value.  A. NEGATIVE. VALUE.  

Sometimes I agree with you, and sometimes I don't.  This is one I don't.  I think you typed that comment as a flippant remark, but didn't fully consider what you were saying.  

I appreciate that Nick Nelson put this piece out there because it appears the Twins FO is banking on a big season from Lewis.  Other than Buxton staying healthy (because if he's healthy, he WILL produce), Lewis busting out with an entire season of 2023 2nd half and playoffs could actually make the Twins viable competitors for a Division Title or Wild Card. 

I think there is a LOT of hope on TD that Twins fans will see the GOOD Royce Lewis in 2026.  Realistically, we know the chances are slimmer than better we will.  But without the GOOD Royce Lewis, the Twins have no chance.  

NYCTK, here is something that I agree with you about, and it's probably not a popular position on TD.  I think NOT trading Ryan, Buxton and Jeffers is a mistake.  Maybe at the deadline they still will, but I'm not sure they wouldn't get value now then at the break.  I could support an all-in rebuild more than an attempt to "compete" in 2026.  

This is all true. But, as you said, Ryan McMahon has a significantly better resume than Royce Lewis. They have about the same level of bat, but McMahon is legitimately good at 3B and has no lingering questions about his health, that I'm aware of at least. 

No other team cares any longer about how Lewis was drafted first overall or was a top ten prospect in baseball back in 2019. They care that he's been marginally above replacement level the last couple years. They care that he's a question mark at 3B with a question mark bat to go with it, and a question mark on his health hanging over everything. 

BBTV is an interesting tool, but this is another example where I don't put much stock in it. Like I said, I believe Royce Lewis is quickly becoming a DFA candidate. A repeat of last season and a DFA is not out of the question at all. Ryan McMahon, for all his faults, isn't a DFA candidate at this point.

I'm not being flippant, I truly don't believe other teams would offer much more than the 35 and 40 FV prospects the Rockies received for Ryan McMahon. 2 40/40+ FV? Maybe. 

Just pretending the Mets needed someone like him, I would be quite disappointed if they traded a single 45 FV or higher prospect for him, and absolutely livid if they traded a 50 FV. 

 

 

[TopGunn#22]

Fair enough.  Especially the point about McMahon's defense at 3B.  Not likely Lewis ever gets to that level.  

[Riverbrian]

16 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

There is no way, in any rational sense that Royce Lewis, as of TODAY would have roughly the same trade value as a Ryan McMahon NYCTK.  While McMahon has shown more on his resume at this point, he's currently on a 6-year, $70 million dollar contract in which the Yanks owe him $16 million for 2026 and $16 million for 2027.  Lewis is under team control thru the 2028 season was paid just $1.625 million last season.  

Yes, I'll acknowledge that if Lewis struggles for another couple of years, his value will tank.  But just using the model of BBTV as a comparison, Lewis has a value of 19.4.  Prior to being traded to the Yankees Ryan McMahon had a NEGATIVE value.  A. NEGATIVE. VALUE.  

Sometimes I agree with you, and sometimes I don't.  This is one I don't.  I think you typed that comment as a flippant remark, but didn't fully consider what you were saying.  

I appreciate that Nick Nelson put this piece out there because it appears the Twins FO is banking on a big season from Lewis.  Other than Buxton staying healthy (because if he's healthy, he WILL produce), Lewis busting out with an entire season of 2023 2nd half and playoffs could actually make the Twins viable competitors for a Division Title or Wild Card. 

I think there is a LOT of hope on TD that Twins fans will see the GOOD Royce Lewis in 2026.  Realistically, we know the chances are slimmer than better we will.  But without the GOOD Royce Lewis, the Twins have no chance.  

NYCTK, here is something that I agree with you about, and it's probably not a popular position on TD.  I think NOT trading Ryan, Buxton and Jeffers is a mistake.  Maybe at the deadline they still will, but I'm not sure they wouldn't get value now then at the break.  I could support an all-in rebuild more than an attempt to "compete" in 2026.  

You are a great poster on TD. I love reading your stuff.

In my opinion. McMahon and Lewis had similar numbers last year. That's really the only comparison. I guess the other comparison is a cautionary tale. They both hit the major leagues around age 23. 

McMahon played in Colorado therefore despite 6 years in a row (not counting 2020) of 20 plus home runs.... OPS+ has never been kind to McMahon. He's been pretty consistent average to below average and as pointed out he makes a lot of money due to Colorado giving him a 6 year deal with two years and 32 million left on the deal. 

I believe that Royce has the talent to be special but if I'm the GM of another team.

I'm not giving up anything special for him. Not until he shows he can bust out of this thing. 

Therefore his value is with the Twins. His value needs to be repaired and the Twins are all in on him. He will be given the playing time and nobody will be allowed to take his job no matter how he performs.  

We will live and die with Royce Lewis.