Following the path of the Astros and Orioles

[jorgenswest]

There aren’t many examples of teams winning by tearing it down. The curious thing about the Astros tear down and 50s win seasons was the little impact they received from the trades.

• The only player on their roster that first 50s win season that was on the 2017 roster was Altuve. 
• They probably had better assets to trade than the Twins. Bourne and Pence were an over 5 WAR players at age 28. Rodriguez was a very good starter and Myers was their closer. None of the players they received in those trades were that winning 2017 roster and several were top prospects. The only asset on that 2017 roster that was acquired in trade was Peacock who was a minor piece in a Jed Lowrie for Chris Carter deal and was coming off a season with a 6.01 ERA in AAA.

It was to the Astros benefit that the top prospects they acquired in trade failed. How else would they be so bad for three straight seasons? Their failure to get any value from their trades led to picking up elite players in the draft.

The Orioles tried the Astros path. They were awful for four seasons. Only Santander (33 games) from that first bad season made it to the playoff seasons. They traded Machado four 5 prospects. One made It. Dean Kremer. He is a helpful piece (4.26 career ERA) but probably not a pitcher that is going to lead you through the playoffs. The rest did not make it. The traded other assets but the only prospect acquired that was on that first playoff roster was Kyle Bradish. The Orioles turned it around by using the four really bad seasons to get top draft picks and not through the prospects acquired in trades.

The Twins can trade off Buxton, Ryan, Lopez and Jeffers. If the returns are good it will probably help them approach .500. If the returns don’t work out maybe they can get that top spot in the draft for several years and be a contender in 2031 or 2032. By then Keaschall might be the only in left. If the Twins want to follow the path of the Astros and Orioles they need to be awful the next three or four seasons. They have a better chance at being awful if they trade poorly. If they hit on a few players it will probably prevent them from getting that string of top draft picks that led to the Orioles and Astros success.

To me the 162 matters. I would not advocate for trading three or four seasons of really bad baseball in hopes that they will draft exceedingly well to build a contender. I am keeping the core at least until this deadline. This season matters.

[Riverbrian]

26 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

There aren’t many examples of teams winning by tearing it down. The curious thing about the Astros tear down and 50s win seasons was the little impact they received from the trades.

• The only player on their roster that first 50s win season that was on the 2017 roster was Altuve. 
• They probably had better assets to trade than the Twins. Bourne and Pence were an over 5 WAR players at age 28. Rodriguez was a very good starter and Myers was their closer. None of the players they received in those trades were that winning 2017 roster and several were top prospects. The only asset on that 2017 roster that was acquired in trade was Peacock who was a minor piece in a Jed Lowrie for Chris Carter deal and was coming off a season with a 6.01 ERA in AAA.

It was to the Astros benefit that the top prospects they acquired in trade failed. How else would they be so bad for three straight seasons? Their failure to get any value from their trades led to picking up elite players in the draft.

The Orioles tried the Astros path. They were awful for four seasons. Only Santander (33 games) from that first bad season made it to the playoff seasons. They traded Machado four 5 prospects. One made It. Dean Kremer. He is a helpful piece (4.26 career ERA) but probably not a pitcher that is going to lead you through the playoffs. The rest did not make it. The traded other assets but the only prospect acquired that was on that first playoff roster was Kyle Bradish. The Orioles turned it around by using the four really bad seasons to get top draft picks and not through the prospects acquired in trades.

The Twins can trade off Buxton, Ryan, Lopez and Jeffers. If the returns are good it will probably help them approach .500. If the returns don’t work out maybe they can get that top spot in the draft for several years and be a contender in 2031 or 2032. By then Keaschall might be the only in left. If the Twins want to follow the path of the Astros and Orioles they need to be awful the next three or four seasons. They have a better chance at being awful if they trade poorly. If they hit on a few players it will probably prevent them from getting that string of top draft picks that led to the Orioles and Astros success.

To me the 162 matters. I would not advocate for trading three or four seasons of really bad baseball in hopes that they will draft exceedingly well to build a contender. I am keeping the core at least until this deadline. This season matters.

I agree 100%. 

As much as people want to just chuck this season... and the next.

This season matters huge. 

[stringer bell]

Agree with @Riverbrian. One thing to consider when comparing to Houston and Baltimore, none of the other teams in the AL Central are big spenders who will put out deep experienced rosters capable of dominating for years. If the Twins “hit” on a couple players, they should be able to compete in talent and payroll with anyone else in the AL Central.