The Second Half

[stringer bell]

I'm more of a numbers person than many. Dividing a season in two should be done at the 81-game mark, the literal halfway point of the season and that is where we are today. We start the statistical second half today in the 82nd game.

Can the Twins make the playoffs this year? Many on this site will scoff and the last eleven months have given plenty of reason to be skeptical. I think the Twins can make postseason, but it will have to come with sustained improvements in many areas:

1) The offense has to be much more consistent. When Byron Buxton is the most consistent player for your team, your team is not consistent. Buck has been great, and his health has been a big positive in the first half. Losing Buxton for a long period would likely end the Twins chances for postseason. Several guys have underperformed and turnarounds from Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa and Matt Wallner would make the Twins offense much more of a constant threat. I'm thinking Correa needs to lift his OPS to >.750 requiring an > .800 OPS in the second half. Wallner needs to get his OPS number above .800 as he has both of the last two years requiring something like an .850 OPS in the last 81 games. Lewis also needs to get his OPS in range with previous seasons and he would have to OPS well over .800 to do so. Beyond that, someone needs to man second base adequately and hit. Both Clemens and Lee have hit well and appear adequate in the field. One of them needs to continue to produce. 

2) The team needs to win their share (or more) of close games. The Twins are on a nine-game losing streak in one-run games. That's kind of hard to do and only during their long winning streak have they won close to half of close games in the first half. Was that just buzzard's luck or is there a flaw that causes them to be poor in close games? I think it's a little of both--when you really need a run, a home run is 100% sure of getting that run and the Twins rank near the middle in that stat. They have little team speed to produce runs in other ways. 

3) The Twins need to be fundamentally sound. Another possible reason for the Twins lousy record in one-run games is failing to make plays and failing to take advantage when teams give them an opportunity. Defensively, the Twins were pretty good through their long winning streak, but they've regressed considerably recently--poor routes, throwing to the wrong base, allowing runners to steal and advance all figure in. They've gotten solid glove work from Bader and France, in addition to the expected good defense from Buxton and Correa, but everyone needs to step up. Keeping their heads in games and limiting mental mistakes has to be a priority. I'd love to see them be positive performers on the base paths as well. With their low ranking in team speed, stolen bases won't happen much, but hopefully as a team they can take extra bases and avoid making outs when trying to advance.

4) The rotation needs more innings and more quality. Bailey Ober seems to have lost his mojo. He had been really good for quite a long time and now it seems every mistake is hit 400 feet. Pablo López will be out until August for sure, so everyone including Ober, needs to step up. It is also essential that the starters get deeper in games consistently, including SWR and Festa. The quality start stat has often been mocked, but getting more length is key in keeping the bullpen rested and productive.

5) The "front end" of the bullpen needs to be better. First of all, the back end has been pretty doggone good. Durán, Jax, Stewart, Varland and Coulombe have done their jobs and then some on the whole. The less trusted guys have shown why they are less trusted. Sands has regressed considerably, Topa has been knocked around in a couple of outings and the rest have ranged from okay in a small sample size to gasoline on a fire. I would expect some roster movement among the lower leverage bullpen arms and I would hope that the Twins could come up with better options than Joey Wentz and Kody Funderburk.

6) Someone needs to emerge. In the first half, it was Kody Clemens. Someone acquired in a trade, called up from the minors or picked up as a DFA needs to give the team a spark. Maybe it will be one of the pitchers the Twins signed and claimed recently, maybe it's someone at St. Paul.

The Twins are 39-42, pretty close to where they were in 2023 when they won the division going away. This year that isn't going to happen. Detroit has won 51 games and only need to play .500 to win over 90. For the Twins to win 90, they would need to go 51-30 in the second half. Somewhere between 86 and 90 wins would put them in the middle of a wild card race. I think they can get there if most of the improvements I listed above happen. 

[Linus]

Agree on all counts particularly number 3.  They are going to have to win close games to make the playoffs and Thats means fundamentally strong baseball something they frequently struggle with.