Ranking the Top Pitching Prospect from Each AL Central Organization

[Matthew Lenz]

The American League Central's top pitching prospects aren’t quite as strong as the division’s top hitting prospects, but does feature a couple of the best in baseball. I took each team’s top prospect and ranked them within the division.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

One reason the division's top-end pitching prospects appear weaker than the hitting prospects is because of recent graduations. In the recent past, the Minnesota Twins had David Festa and Zebby Matthews graduate from prospect status; the Cleveland Guardians had Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee graduate; and the Kansas City Royals... well, they just hope Seth Lugo’s and Michael Wacha’s 2024 campaigns weren’t a fluke. In my review, I used a combination of MLB, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs rankings and scouting reports to get an idea of how I’d rank the prospects against one another. Let’s see how they stack up.

1. Jackson Jobe - Detroit Tigers
Jackson Jobe was the third overall by Detroit in 2021 and, while it took awhile for him to turn a corner in his development, he is considered the best pitching prospect in baseball by multiple rankers. Since missing the first month of the 2023 season, Jobe has been dominant, flying through the Tigers’ system and making his major-league debut at the end of the 2024 season. He finished each of his 2023 and 2024 minor-league seasons with an ERA south of 3.00, striking out more than a quarter of the batters he faced. Jobe's fastball has 18 inches of induced vertical break, reaching 94-97 mph, complementing his plus-plus slider with high spin rates and significant sweeping action. His ability to command the strike zone is a little inconsistent, but still, Jobe will be a thorn in the division’s side for the foreseeable future.

 

2. Noah Schultz - Chicago White Sox
Schultz has quickly climbed prospect rankings, after being the 26th overall pick in the 2022 Draft by the Chicago White Sox—and that's despite missing more than two months of his second professional season. Regardless, though, he struck out 38 batters in 27 innings at Single-A Kannapolis and followed that up by posting a 2.45 FIP, a 32.1% strikeout rate, and a 6.7% walk rate at High-A Winston-Salem and Double-A Birmingham. The 6-foot-9 lefty, who’s rightfully drawn comparisons to Randy Johnson, features a plus slider with exceptional horizontal movement; a fastball that sits 93-97 mph; and a nascent two-seamer. A mid-80s changeup shows promise, and he also features an average cutter. While he doesn’t have the upside of Jobe, his impressive development shows that he has the ceiling of a front-line starter.

3. Marco Raya - Minnesota Twins
Zebby Matthews “misses” the cut by just a few days after debuting in 2024, so the top spot in the Twins organization goes to Marco Raya. His development has not come without its lumps, due to both injuries and performance. Regardless, Baseball America ranks the 6-foot-1 righty as the 58th-best prospect in all of baseball. As a prep draftee, he performed well at Double-A Wichita in 2024 despite his age, posting a 4.05 ERA and 3.88 FIP with solid strikeout and walk rates, earning a promotion to Triple-A St. Paul. He boasts a mid- to upper-90s fastball, while his slider is a true out pitch, sitting mid-80s with elite spin. A slower curve provides a different look, and his changeup has developed into a plus offering. Having not yet eclipsed the 100-inning mark in any professional season, the goal for 2025 will be to manage a full starter’s workload at the minors' highest level—but be ready if called upon by the parent club, as a starter or reliever.

4. Braylon Doughty - Cleveland Guardians
Braylon Doughty was the 36th overall pick in the most recent draft, as a prep prospect. The 6-foot-1 righty did not pitch in the 2024 season, but his scouting reports tell us he has a mid-90s fastball with arm-side run and good command, coupled with a high-spin curveball and slider. He’s also working on a changeup to help round out his arsenal. While it will be a long time before we see him in the big leagues, he’s currently pegged as a mid-rotation starter.

5. David Shields - Kansas City Royals
David Shields, a 2024 second-round pick, re-classified for the draft, making him just 17 years old at the time he was drafted. Like Doughty, he did not pitch in the 2024 season, but we know he features a low- to mid-90s fastball up with good movement and command, along with an above-average low-80s slider, and a changeup and cutter that still need some fine-tuning. Given how young he is, it’s hard to know how much he will develop as he continues to grow and gain professional experience, but it’s likely he adds some ticks to his fastball and continues to improve his secondary offerings.

After the top two arms, the current ceiling of the top pitching prospects within the division falls off considerably. Of course, that’s in part due to unknowns surrounding Raya’s ability to stay healthy over an entire season and the age of the two 2024 prep draftees. In the meantime, Jobe aims to remain in the majors, while Schultz and Raya target debuts by 2026, perhaps even by the end of 2025. Doughty and Shields are too young and far away to put any definitive timelines on, but MLB currently has both of their estimated arrivals for the 2028 season. Regardless of the current status of the top pitching prospects, the AL Central still claims some of the best young arms in baseball and these names will only deepen those starting rotations.

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What are your thoughts on the top prospects in the division? Were any players snubbed from the list? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[Brandon]

Woods-Richardson also graduated and no longer qualifies for top prospects lists either.  
 

So our rookie class of starting pitchers Woods-Richardson, Festa, and Matthews is pretty good and you say more help is on the way?  

[LambchoP]

Raya, Adams, Lewis, Culpeper. Not to mention guys that could be a real weapon in the pen like Canterino or Prelipp. Will be fun to watch these guys develop. However, I do think the MLB club needs at least one more veteran in the rotation to allow enough time for Festa, Mathews and the rest to proper amount of time in St Paul to make sure they're ready rather than rushing them too fast like the did with Zebby last year.

[beckmt]

Posters above have also seemed to have missed Morris who ranks above most of the last listers.  St. Paul rotation should be stacked with plenty of talent to call up.  Not worried about starting pitching.