Max Kepler’s Departure and the Expected Decline of the Twins' Outfield Defense

[DocBauer]

To be clear, I value defense, want defense, understand how defense helps your pitchers, and the last thing you want is to give up extra rubs, that sometimes come from extra opportunities for not making an out.

That's part of the reason I'm sold on having Keirsey as a backup OF for 2025, if he can provide anything close to league average offensively. I DON'T CARE if he bats LH. Buxton is RH, 75% of the pitchers faced are RH, so to me it's a non issue that Keirsey bats LH. I want his defense and speed on the basepaths unless he's just lousy as a hitter. (Martin provides a low bar to clear based on 2024). And I don't see the Twins spending $ on a different option. 

Wallner is not Kepler defensively, but Kepler isn't quite once he was previously. Not a knock on him, just what I believe to be true from numbers and watching him. Wallner has gotten better, will get better, has that cannon, and will provide more offense.

When you have to choose better offense or better defense, I'd go with better offense. I think the majority of managers and FO would agree with that. A run scored is more valuable than a "possible" run scoring opportunity for the opposition due to a missed play.

The final runs scored numbers by the Twins the last 2 seasons pita them near the top in MLB. But it was the inconsistency of the offense that cost the hitting coaches their jobs. Think the first half of 2023, the first and last months of 2024. Of course injuries affected the offense. But even still, there were too many stretches of poor production, and too many missed opportunities in close games that hurt as much or more than a drop off in RF, per the intent of the OP.

A lottle more speed and athleticism wouldn't hurt, of course, and another reason why I'm looking hard at Keirsey as a bench option. And i just really don't like a RH option like Margot who can only hit LH arms. I sure don't know WHO at this time, but I'd like to have a 5th OF who can beat up on LH pitching, but not stink against RH arms. Look how much Margot was pressed in to starting games last year? The "platoon only" idea sounds good until reality sets in.

Sorry if I'm repeating myself from earlier. I'm not anti-defense, I'm pro better, more consistent offense.

As things sit today, I'm more concerned...not worried, that's too strong of a word...about the INF defense. A healthy Correa and Lewis pretty much locks down the left side offensively and defensively. Lee's glove and instincts pretty much anywhere. Fully healthy, does he build on his experiences this season and the bat plays up in 2025 as hoped/expected? I'm more than OK with Castro's overall glove work in the INF, but I like him better in his super utility role instead of sticking at one spot.

And that brings up the current unknown at 1B. But that's a different arguement for a different thread I guess. I'm more concerned about 1B than I am RF and Kepler moving on.

[tony&rodney]

10 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

A healthy Correa and Lewis pretty much locks down the left side offensively and defensively.

Correa may be one to count on. Royce? Not so much. Please tell when Lewis has been a decent fielder? He last had a full season of at bats in 2019 and had an OPS of .661. It seems a little pollyannish to expect a full productive season on both sides of the ball from Lewis if he is at third base. Similar to how the Twins need to plan for someone who can actually play centerfield, Lewis remains a question mark until he can show production beyond spurts here and there. I guess we can hope for the best, which I do. It just doesn't sound like a plan.

[bean5302]

15 hours ago, DocBauer said:

To be clear, I value defense, want defense...

...That's part of the reason I'm sold on having Keirsey as a backup OF for 2025, if he can provide anything close to league average offensively. I DON'T CARE if he bats LH...

Keirsey's defensive metrics do not paint him as a potential plus center fielder. At best, he might be able to hold his own. I really wish Keirsey would have gotten some more playing time and plate appearances at the end of the season so we could get better data on his true sprint speed. Eyeball scouting returns some serious bias.