Twins 5, A's 6: Willi Castro Heroics go for Naught in Yet Another One-Run Loss

[bean5302]

18 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Technically Duran blew a "Hold" as he came in for the 8th inning and it wasn't a save situation unless he had come out to pitch the 9th as well. 

I agree with RV78 regarding our manager.  It's spreadsheet, spreadsheet, spreadsheet for Rocco.  I don't think I've ever seen him make a move that would have departed from his spreadsheet.  I once saw Billy Martin send Rich Reese up to pinch hit with the bases loaded in the 7th inning of a game against the Baltimore Orioles in 1969 with lefty Dave McNally on the mound going for what could have been a major league record 16th win in a row.  The lefty vs lefty matchup is something Rocco would NEVER do.  Reese hit a Grand Slam HR to deep left center field at the old Met Stadium, something Justin Morneau would refer to as an "oppo taco."  

At some point, a manager needs to "manage."  Not just glance at a spreadsheet and check a box.  

He blew a save. Game was in Oakland so they didn't have to bat in the 9th. Officially recorded in the box score. Duran's issue is his 4 seam fastball hasn't been as valuable; however, that could just be a function of the Twins not calling for it. 50% (2022), 45% (2023), 38% (2024). Stuff+ grades Duran's fastball as good as ever. Maybe... just maaayyyybee, the Twins spreadsheets should allow Duran to throw it more.

[JD-TWINS]

14 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

So about whipping boys/scapegoats Farmer and Margot. There's an easy way to visualize how they've been expected to  perform at the plate over a rolling stretch of games. It takes into consideration how hard and far they've been hitting balls, how often they've struck out or taken walks. The rolling xwOBA on BaseballSavant.com, including all the good at bats you missed, and all the terrible at bats you remember.

You can clearly see Margot and Farmer have trended upwards recently over a rolling 100 plate appearances. I've added names and date ranges so people can visualize how the rolling xwOBA works. If you were to pick a dot directly above the date ranges, that's what the dot (point) on the line would represent. Farmer struggled to end last year, and his struggles continued into this year, but you can also see how sporadic his plate appearances have been this year. Both Farmer and Margot are holding their own right now. There's no good reason to ditch them at the moment. For the record, I despised, and still despise both moves in keeping Farmer, and bringing in Margot. Have to hope for 1 of 2 things.
1) They both tank over the next few weeks (worse outcome) while guys like Wallner/Lee continue to crush baseballs so Margot and Farmer can be DFA'd and replaced.
2) The both keep hitting better so their season values creep up over league average (best outcome) and they can be moved while guys like Wallner/Lee continue to crush baseballs. This outcome is better since the Twins win more games.

.

Good comments/overview - am on the more Wins & best case side of the ledger.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Technically Duran blew a "Hold" as he came in for the 8th inning and it wasn't a save situation unless he had come out to pitch the 9th as well. 

I agree with RV78 regarding our manager.  It's spreadsheet, spreadsheet, spreadsheet for Rocco.  I don't think I've ever seen him make a move that would have departed from his spreadsheet.  I once saw Billy Martin send Rich Reese up to pinch hit with the bases loaded in the 7th inning of a game against the Baltimore Orioles in 1969 with lefty Dave McNally on the mound going for what could have been a major league record 16th win in a row.  The lefty vs lefty matchup is something Rocco would NEVER do.  Reese hit a Grand Slam HR to deep left center field at the old Met Stadium, something Justin Morneau would refer to as an "oppo taco."  

At some point, a manager needs to "manage."  Not just glance at a spreadsheet and check a box.  

So if someone looks at a spreadsheet, i.e. an organized record on paper/screen, that makes their calls foolish?   So if he just “shot from the hip” that would certainly be better?  Do you really think that Gardenhire and Kelly didn’t base their decisions on what their perceived experiences were?  They didn’t call it analytics because no one used those words.  If something has a 60% chance of success I’m taking that every time over something with a 40% chance of success. YMMV. 

[jmlease1]

17 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yeah, I wouldn't mind his 2.95 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 2.76 xFIP right now. But he cost $10MM this year!!!! Falvey needed that money for Margot and Farmer. At least Santana is holding his own at this point... not that Miranda wouldn't still be better.

Come on. You can't just count the cost of Gray's salary this season in a vacuum: you have to look at the total length and value of that contract, Yes, paying Sonny Gray $10M in 2024 is awesome, and a real steal. Paying Gray $35M in 2026? Better hope he's still healthy at 36. Plus the fact that he wanted to play closer to home, etc.

[bean5302]

7 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Come on. You can't just count the cost of Gray's salary this season in a vacuum: you have to look at the total length and value of that contract, Yes, paying Sonny Gray $10M in 2024 is awesome, and a real steal. Paying Gray $35M in 2026? Better hope he's still healthy at 36. Plus the fact that he wanted to play closer to home, etc.

Yeah, I actually can. The Pohlads cut payroll this year. No idea what's in the future for TV contracts, etc. If the payroll bounces back to $150MM, things change again. The $10MM this year just shows Gray's flexibility on how the salary got to him. The guy wanted to play for a competitive team, and Gray is on record saying the Twins checked all the boxes for him on an extension.  Front load more of it and don't bring in Santana or resign Farmer. Tada! It's easy.