Can the Twins Continue to Rely on Steven Okert as Their Best Lefty Reliever?

[Theodore Tollefson]

Steven Okert has been one of the most heavily-used relievers out of the Twins bullpen this year. He's also been their most dependable lefty. Can he keep up the pace, as the Twins enter the beginning of summer? 

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins have seen mixed results from their off-season acquisitions in 2024. Some players (such as Anthony DeSclafani and Justin Topa) haven’t pitched at all, due to injury. Others (like Jay Jackson and Manuel Margot) have had bad results. But there is at least one player the Twins acquired via trade who has returned plenty of value: Steven Okert.

Okert has been a relief arm long desired by some Twins fans and writers. Back in July of 2022, the Twins were in contention for the American League Central and in dire need of reinforcements in the pen. Their relief corps was lacking in lefty depth, as Caleb Thielbar had an ERA just south of 5.00 going into the All-Star break. While Jovani Moran had an ERA of 0.98, he had only 26 ⅔ career innings to that point.

Around that time, Okert was looking like one of the under-the-radar trade options on a struggling Marlins team, posting a 2.27 ERA and an opponent batting average of .161 across 31 ⅔ innings, in 38 games.

The Twins didn’t put together a deal to get Okert by the trade deadline, as they settled instead on Michael Fulmer from the Tigers and Jorge López from the Orioles. But a year and a half later, Okert was their final addition to the bullpen, a week ahead of Spring Training. 

Now, two months into the 2024 season, Okert has proven to be the Twins' most reliable left-handed reliever. Thielbar began the season on the injured list, and has only slowly returned to form. Kody Funderburk has been inconsistent, and is now on his second optional assignment of the year with the Saints in St. Paul.

Okert has pitched the second-most games out of the bullpen (22), behind Griffin Jax (28). He holds the second-lowest ERA from Twins relievers who have thrown a minimum of 15 innings (2.79) and opponents' batting average (.216).

He's also had one of the more unique bullpen entrances in baseball this year, taking the Nationals' bullpen cart to the mound and tipping their driver a five-dollar bill for the ride--something the driver didn't expect and was very grateful for, as he told Twins Daily's Peter Labuza last week.

Despite this success, there have been challenges for Okert this season. He's battled to establish feel for every pitch in his arsenal outside his slider. While his opponents' average with his slider sits at .140, the results are not the same with his fastball (.350), sinker (.250), and changeup (.333). 

The sample sizes for his sinker and changeup remain small, as Okert has only thrown his sinker 28 times and his changeup seven times. But his fastball is not the same, as opponents are 7-for-20 against his fastball. 

Command continues to be an issue with his heater, as he’s only landed it in the strike zone 25% of the time, down from 38.6% in 2023. But when he is landing it in the zone, it’s usually in the wrong place.

Take his appearance against Anthony Santander on Apr. 17, for example. The Twins were tied 1-1 after six strong innings from Pablo López. Okert entered the game in the seventh and retired the first batter, Austin Hays, on a fastball right down the middle. It was a very well-hit ball, but it nestled harmlessly into the glove of Austin Martin in center field.

Santander was next up. Okert went right after him, with fastballs just like those he threw to Hays. He got away with the first. The second, a bit lower, left Santander's bat at 107.4 miles per hour and landed in the Orioles Splash Zone.

While it may appear that Okert has also inherited many runners in his outings, he has only had six outings where he's inherited runners and come in with a total of 12 runners aboard. His most recent outing where this occurred was against Houston on Sunday, as he entered the game with runners on first and second, one out, and the game tied at 3-3. 

This was one of Okert's highest-leverage outings of the season. Entering the game, he faced a leverage index of 3.16, meaning the situation was more than three times as important to the outcome as an average plate appearance. He retired Kyle Tucker on five pitches, throwing four sliders and a fastball to get him out. Alex Bregman got a single on a fastball on the upper outside corner of the strike zone to load the bases for Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez is a tough opponent for many pitchers, but Okert only needed three sliders and a sinker to get him out and keep the game tied for the Twins, and survived one of the toughest trios of hitters in the game. 

Okert’s biggest flaw is proving to be his fastball and his lack of trust in it, which has been the case throughout his career. Last season, opponents went 24-for-83 (.289 BA) against his fastball, seeing it in the strike zone more frequently. His slider continues to be his best asset, though, as it has landed in the strike zone 61.3% to 68% over the last three seasons and has never exceeded an opponent's average of .194 in that time. 

The Twins love their slider-first pitchers. It’s a big reason why they acquired Okert. But he needs to improve upon his fastball command and trust that it’ll get hitters to chase outside on the corners, rather than right down the middle of the plate. 

If he can develop his fastball into a more reliable secondary pitch as the summer goes on, he will prove to be the Twins' most dependable lefty going into the postseason crunch time in September. That's what the Twins need right now, as they face off against the Yankees (hopefully) for one last time this year.

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[DJL44]

He has done well shutting down lefthanded batters. He's not particularly effective against RHP. They like to hit his breaking ball when he leaves it over the plate. He is the best alternative they have, better than Thielbar or Funderburk. Keep him in favorable matchups and it should go okay.

[LambchoP]

He's looked pretty good so far despite the shaky command. Sad to say but it really looks like Theilbar is cooked and I think if there's a team out there that wants him, we should listen on a trade. Then try to find a solid lefty to pair with Okert. Not sure how Aroldis Chapman's doing this year, but he was lights out last year and only making like 5 million or something...

[KBJ1]

Yeah Theiĺbars velocity is down and his sinker/ curve gets pummeled when left over the plate. As Stanton proved last night. 

He needs a change up with sideways movement. Without that and better velocity, he is done.

Okert has been OK, but nothing special yet.

[FlyingFinn]

For now, Okert is the best we have. He's terrible (except for the last game) when coming in with runners on. Much prefer him and Thielbar to come in with an out or two and face only lh's. With Thielbar's late start I'm still giving him time to return to form (but I think this is his last year as his bad streaks seem to last longer now), but to figure that out in low leverage situations first.

[Doctor Gast]

Okert was fine in the beginning with MIA. But down the stretch he was undependable. MIA was more than happy to trade him off. He has to show that he can change & work his fastball

[Rod Carews Birthday]

He’s a decent reliever with decent stuff.  He hasn’t been amazing, but he’s much better than some others would be.  I’m not ready to anoint him closer, but until he loses my confidence, he has it.  Let’s ride that as long as we can.   And then the next guy will come along.