Week in Review: Riding the Roller Coaster

[Nick Nelson]

The staggeringly streaky Minnesota Twins stayed true to form last week, extending their losing streak to seven games before once again turning on a dime to win their next four in a row.

They haven't been able to gain any ground in a Central division led by two scorching hot teams, but for now the Twins stopped the bleeding and held mostly steady, and that's just what they needed to do.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/20 through Sun, 5/26
***
Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 28-24)
Run Differential Last Week: +1 (Overall: +4)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (7.5 GB)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 47 | WAS 12, MIN 3: Slump Worsens with Beatdown in DC
Game 48 | MIN 10, WAS 0: Twins End Losing Streak with a Bang
Game 49 | MIN 3, WAS 2: Duran Squeezes by to Secure Series
Game 50 | MIN 3, TEX 2: Bullpen Locks Down Tight Win Over Texas
Game 51 | MIN 5, TEX 3: Another Key HR from Kirilloff Lifts Twins
Game 52 | TEX 6, MIN 2: Lopez Struggles Again, Offense Snoozes

IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY.

NEWS & NOTES

The biggest news development of the week (month? year??) was Royce Lewis getting the thumbs-up to kick off his rehab stint in the minors. He joined the St. Paul Saints on the road in Buffalo and started at DH for them on Saturday and Sunday, finishing 3-for-9 between the two games. As if to make a statement about the health of his leg (one that the Twins apparently did not enjoy), Lewis immediately stole second base after singling in his first at-bat.

 

This will probably run longer than the typical rehab assignment, since Lewis is coming off a two-month absence, and the Twins have every reason to be cautious and minimize any risk of a setback or aggravation. He could return for the series in Houston next weekend (the very site he debuted last year) but it's also very possible he stays with the Saints throughout the week, joining the big-league club later on their road trip through New York and Pittsburgh.

Either way, Lewis is on track to make it back quicker than expected from a scary injury that can sometimes require up to half of a season to heal. The 24-year-old's ability to bounce back again and again from these major physical hurdles continues to be as impressive as what he's accomplished in his (all too brief) time on the field. Fingers crossed that things keep progressing smoothly for him as he ramps up and starts playing defense.

Some additional positive injury news from the farm: Minnesota's top two prospects simultaneously fired up their own rehab stints in the minors, with both Walker Jenkins and Brooks Lee getting started in the rookie-level Florida Complex League last week. It's great to see Jenkins, out since Opening Day with a hamstring injury, resume his journey to conquer the low minors. But Lee's return to action has greater short-term implications for the Twins and their lagging offense; Lee could be an option to join the team within a month or so if he looks good in Triple-A upon being activated.

On the bullpen front, a couple of moves worth mentioning: Jorge Alcalá was recalled in place of Caleb Boushley, and Jay Jackson accepted his assignment to Triple-A following last week's DFA. Kody Funderburk was optioned to Triple-A following Sunday's game, with the Twins expected to call up a fresh arm on Monday.

HIGHLIGHTS

Several strong performances contributed to a winning week for the Twins, but none were more refreshing to see than that of Alex Kirilloff, who delivered a pair of crucial home runs over the weekend against the defending champs. Mired in a deep funk, Kirilloff's batting average had sunk below .200 before he picked up four hits in his past 10 ABs, including go-ahead homers that proved decisive on Friday and Saturday. Teammates remarked that Kirilloff's showing of emotion after the latter home run, a game-breaking three-run blast, was a rarity.

 

Kirilloff's prolonged mega-slump (he slashed .147/.219/.284 in 35 games from April 8th to May 21st) has played a substantial role in the offense's inability to stay in a rhythm. At his best he's one of the team's top bats, and at a minimum they need him to produce respectably while playing offense-driven positions. It's too soon to say Kirilloff's struggles are fully behind him, but the power flurry over the weekend was extremely encouraging.

Also supplying power for the offense last week were Byron Buxton (two home runs in a blowout win over Washington on Tuesday), Carlos Correa (two homers, two doubles and a triple on the week), and Max Kepler, who homered, doubled twice, and drew three walks in five games. 

The offense as a whole remains pretty uneven and wasn't overly impressive last week, but with these guys swinging the bat well, Lewis on his way back, and Lee building up in the minors, it's easier to feel some confidence in the outlook for this unit.

The pitching staff rebounded from a rough start to the week, posting a 2.72 collective ERA in five games after coughing up 12 behind Pablo López on Monday. Joe Ryan, who has emerged as the clear-cut leader of this staff and rotation, fittingly played the role of stopper with a masterful outing on Tuesday, holding the Nationals scoreless over seven innings to lower his ERA to 3.15 on the season. Ryan could make a bid for an All-Star nod if he continues to deliver with this consistency and quality. 

 

It was a much-needed week of redemption for Jhoan Durán, who was coming off a Pagán-esque nightmare series in Cleveland and has been raising some eyebrows with his reduced velocity. Durán's save attempt in Washington on Wednesday gave off "here we go again" vibes after he surrendered a homer and single to the first two batters he faced, but the right-hander managed to strand the tying run on base and secure a win before closing out back-to-back wins against Texas at Target Field.

You can certainly argue that Durán, who has a 5-to-4 K/BB ratio over his past eight appearances, still doesn't look quite up to his usual standard. But he's mostly getting the job done, and insists that his velocity issues are more mechanical than anything. It's a long season and he's got plenty of time to get right.

 

In the meantime, he'll welcome all the help he can get in the bullpen, which has settled into a nice groove after parting ways with Jackson. On Friday night, Durán teamed up with Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar and Steven Okert to fire four hitless innings, protecting a one-run lead following five solid frames from Bailey Ober. A similar script played out on Saturday, when Cole Sands threw two perfect innings as a bridge to Durán after a five-inning start from Chris Paddack. That's a formula that Rocco Baldelli loves to successfully deploy.

LOWLIGHTS

We talked about Kirilloff and his slumping bat being a major factor in the shortcomings of an offense that has scored five or more runs just twice in their past 12 games. But more broadly, it's a lack of all-around effectiveness from their slate of key left-handed bats – sans Kepler – that is stifling the team's run-scoring prowess. 

Much of the offseason discourse centered on the need to add a right-handed bat to help balance the lineup against southpaws, but as it turns out, the Twins have proven far better against left-handed pitching, with an OPS about 80 points higher. Right-handers have routinely kept this lineup in check, and that's obviously problematic given their prominence in the pitching pool.

Like Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach cooled off dramatically after a strong start for the Twins. He's hitting just .192 with one extra-base hit in 52 May at-bats, including 2-for-his-last-25, and hasn't driven in a run for more than two weeks. Pitchers have found pretty reliable ways to attack him, often with breaking balls that run down and in, and Larnach has been unable to make an adjustment. 

Nonetheless, he was elevated into the leadoff spot on Sunday, due to being deemed a superior option to Edouard Julien, who was finally downgraded from his usual perch atop the batting order as his sophomore slump persists and worsens. A 1-for-13 week with one walk and five strikeouts dropped Julien's OPS to .674, which is rough when you consider his OPS sat at .830 entering May. It's been a truly rotten month for Julien, and his deteriorating plate approach is the most troubling aspect.

In the past, Julien has been susceptible to slumps in hitting production but has always been able to offset them with his world-class discipline, drawing enough walks to remain an on-base threat and keep the line moving when the knocks aren't coming. That's gone amiss. Julien has drawn just one walk in his past 12 games and his OBP is dangerously close to falling below .300.

Dropping Julien from first to eighth in the batting order against a righty on Sunday was the first step toward trying to address his increasingly worrisome spiral in performance at the plate. The next step might be approaching soon.

TRENDING STORYLINE

As Lewis works his way back toward the big-league roster, someone's current spot is at risk. It would be unlike the Twins to cut bait on someone like Kyle Farmer at this point, as much as doing so might seem to make sense. The most straightforward swap would be sending down José Miranda, who's been filling in as regular third baseman in Lewis's absence, but given how much the Twins are struggling to string runs together, you wonder if they'd want to subtract one of their best bats. Miranda was 5-for-17 with a homer last week and ranks fourth on the team in OPS behind Kepler, Ryan Jeffers and Correa.

In light of what we just covered regarding Julien's downfall, the preferable path might be sending him down to Triple-A alongside Matt Wallner for a sophomore reset of his own, while keeping Miranda's bat available to the MLB club. But that's not as easy to accommodate logistically. 

Who steps in as regular second baseman in this scenario? Lewis? Moreover, we just talked about how much worse the Twins have been against righties than lefties this year; is subbing in a RH bat for a LH one – even someone who's been scuffling like Julien has – really going to be a helpful solution?

I'm not claiming to have the answer either way. But I do think we're at a point where any extreme upcoming week from either player, good or bad, could significantly influence the decision. So it'll be interesting to see how Miranda and Julien perform in the next couple of series ... and also where Lewis is making starts defensively in Triple-A.

LOOKING AHEAD

A huge series lies ahead to close out the homestand, as the Twins welcome the Kansas City Royals to town for a four-game set. Given how woefully short Minnesota has come up against the other world-beating team they're chasing in the Central, there's some heightened pressure to show up and take this series or at least earn a split. Even if the season is still relatively young, you don't want to be creating distance between yourself and multiple teams ahead of you in the standings. 

From there the Twins will head to Houston to open a nine-game road trip against the team that eliminated them a year ago. This year's iteration of the Astros is a far cry from past powerhouses, but they've been playing better ball lately and are never an opponent to be dismissed.

MONDAY, MAY 27: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Alec Marsh v. RHP Joe Ryan
TUESDAY, MAY 28: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Cole Ragans v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
WEDNESDAY, MAY 29: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Seth Lugo v. RHP Bailey Ober
THURSDAY, MAY 30: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Brady Singer v. RHP Chris Paddack
FRIDAY, MAY 31: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Spencer Arrighetti
SATURDAY, JUNE 1: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Ronel Blanco
SUNDAY, JUNE 2: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. LHP Framber Valdez

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[Doctor Wu]

... the Twins expected to call up a fresh arm on Monday.

Any idea who will it be?

[Doctor Wu]

It was a much-needed week of redemption for Jhoan Durán, who was coming off a Pagán-esque nightmare series in Cleveland ...

Pagan-eqsue? I don't know whether to groan or applaud you for such a wonderful phrase!

[mike8791]

Surprised you didn't lead off your "Lowlights" with Pablo Lopez.  While the rotation has been generally good, he has not.  Not that I blame him for the Twins roller coaster ride(the offense is the major culprit) but his failure to step up has really hurt this team.  Now 7-1/2 games behind, this team needs him to step up now!

[Fatbat]

Duran is heating up. Leave him alone. 
LOL. Coaches need to stop telling him to throw a hanging curve ball! 😳

within two weeks we will be talking about Lewis and Lee in the starting lineup. Easy E, we barely knew yee. He needs a reset.

can we DFA Margo yet?  Some kid in Wichita likes to leadoff with big flies and can cover some turf. The Twins lineup might need some of that. 
How about a Pablo siesta day and let Festa get some MLB cheese? 

It could get ugly if Cleveland and KC decide to keep winning consistently.  We need reinforcements. 
 

[Peter]

Time for the twins to get back into division race and sweep royals/or very least 3-1. 2-1 against Astros will be tough-they are playing well. Can’t wait when Royce comes back this series as well-look out!!! It’s time to start winning series/no more long losing streaks rest of season!!! Twins are going to be must listen/see and watch rest of season!

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Surprised to see Paddock in the rotation for the upcoming series.  I figured it was about time to skip him in the rotation.

Skip for who?

Also, it's PaddAck.