Joe Mauer’s Cooperstown Case: Examining the 2024 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot

[jmlease1]

9 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I agree. It should.

My point is just that the math of the rest of the ballot can make a huge difference in how soon a guy makes it, and Mauer is hurt by the strength of this year’s ballot.

Perhaps the classic example is Carlton Fisk. He’s still No. 4 among catchers in JAWS and one of those ahead of him is Pudge Rodriguez, so Pudge Fisk was No. 3 on that list when he retired. He’s a no-brainer first-ballot guy, right?

Nope. He had the unfortunate situation of entering the ballot with Ryan, Brett and Yount. There weren’t enough votes available for Fisk, so he had to wait until the next year. 

Circumstances like this are the argument for not being limited to 10 votes per ballot. As others say, a HOFer is a HOFer, no matter what the rest of the ballot looks like. Fisk shouldn’t have had to wait, just for having retired the same year as a bunch of legends.

Fisk was also on the ballot during a very different time, though. You had more sentiment from voters about being a "first-ballot" HoFer being more special and have additional criteria for some voters. You still had obsessions about unanimous elections, and you had writers still giving players courtesy votes. There was also less understanding of defensive statistics as well.

There's enough room on this year's ballot for Mauer to get in, but the biggest barrier will be voters who don't use more of their slots. The other barrier will be Joe's lack of post-season success, which wasn't really his fault (and he was denied a signature moment against the Yankees by Phil Cuzzi on what remains a staggeringly bad call) by some voters might hold it against him in the same idiotic way Dan Barreiro used to hold Mauer's walks against him.

(Yes, I'm repeating my shots at DannyB; his near-vendetta against Mauer remains shameful, and I'm convinced half of it was because Mauer had no interest in appearing on his show, which makes it even worse)

[Jeff K]

21 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That must be why they elected Bernie Williams, Don Mattingly, Alex Rodriguez, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens so quickly.

The only bias I've seen in HoF voting seems to be an anti-Detroit bias. There are a lot of Tigers who deserve to go in who can't get any traction.

Alex, Andy & Roger are all stained by roids.  

[IndianaTwin]

So far, Mauer appears on track to be a unanimous selection: https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!54244&authkey=!AGrU1OUsbz4WHyU

Both ballots posted include him.

(Then again, both are listed as "sample," so maybe the file is just being set up to test formulas. At any rate, that's the link if folks want to follow along.)

[D. Hocking]

8 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Fisk was also on the ballot during a very different time, though. You had more sentiment from voters about being a "first-ballot" HoFer being more special and have additional criteria for some voters. You still had obsessions about unanimous elections, and you had writers still giving players courtesy votes. There was also less understanding of defensive statistics as well.

There's enough room on this year's ballot for Mauer to get in, but the biggest barrier will be voters who don't use more of their slots. The other barrier will be Joe's lack of post-season success, which wasn't really his fault (and he was denied a signature moment against  the Yankees by Phil Cuzzi on what remains a staggeringly bad call) by some voters might hold it against him in the same idiotic way Dan Barreiro used to hold Mauer's walks against him.

(Yes, I'm repeating my shots at DannyB; his near-vendetta against Mauer remains shameful, and I'm convinced half of it was because Mauer had no interest in appearing on his show, which makes it even worse)

Not that Mauer was not above criticism during that time, but there was a subtext (or maybe more of just text...)  that it was really personal to him.   I remember thinking, Dan - did he steal your lunch money or something?   

I listened to him pretty regularly until a Pete Rose interview.  Not that Pete isn't deserving of getting asked some very tough questions, but he called in to talk about a charity, where I suspect some interview parameters were discussed beforehand.   Dan completely ignored the reason for the call and thought kept trying to confront him as it was 1990.  Rose was clearly irritated but calm and remained until the end of allotted time.  Dan kept getting more indignant and self-righteous.  I remember thinking, this isn't trying to get a good interview, it is to get people to notice his performance and tell him how bad-ass he is, which the other KFAN people later did.  I thought he just sounded unprofessional  Again, not a Rose apolgist, but it did not seem like the tie or place to do an ambush interview, and Rose came off calmer and more mature than Dan.   [long digression there].  After that, my patience for his act grew much shorter.  It did not help that Dan Cole was extended to 2 hours (I think he is good for about an hour) and 5 hours of the 2 Dans was a bit much.

Completely unscientific guess - think Mauer will get in year 2 to 5.

[Aerodeliria]

On 11/22/2023 at 5:15 AM, Parfigliano said:

Catcher with....3 batting titles.  5 silver slugger.  3 gold gloves.  That alone should get him in on 1st ballot 

Catchers with a WAR of above 50 should be in the HOF. That is what the 'books' show, so JM should get in...at least at some point if he is treated fairly.

[jmlease1]

The comments sections at The Athletic show some of the weird local sentiment I was talking about. They've got a HoF piece up and there are people saying their MN fans and really throwing shade at Mauer, especially when baseball fans from other parts of the country are like "yeah, seems like an obvious first-ballot guy to me". There's this lingering bitterness that seems based on Mauer getting a huge contract and then not winning a World Series. As if he was responsible for the low payrolls the Pohlads kept, or the bad decisions made by various GMs, or the critical injuries (not just to Joe but Morneau, Liriano, etc), or even Phil Cuzzi.

Joe Mauer was an MVP, a 6-time all-star (who deserved them all), 3-time batting champion, 3-time gold glover (should have been 4 with one at 1B in 2017) and did it while spending his first 10 seasons as a primary catcher. Look at what catchers hit these days and think about what Mauer would be worth. A truly great player. I'm still amazed he managed to hit .324 in 2013; that team had nobody else hitting (Morneau was sapped by injury, Dozier hadn't figured it out yet, Willingham was cooked and there was just nothing else there). Mauer only got IBB'd 7 times that season and I'm amazed it wasn't 20. He was on pace for another MVP-caliber season before it ended prematurely.