The Road to 1450: How Many Innings Do the Twins Need To Acquire Before the Start of the Season?

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Introduction

Pitchers are responsible for getting outs. While some pitchers are able to collect more outs while giving up fewer runs, their principal job is to turn the batting card over and give their team a chance to score. Some pitchers pitch very few outs in high-leverage spots, while others are able to collect bunches of low-leverage outs. Last season, Twins pitches collected 4354 outs (1451.1 IP) and did so with quality we haven't seen from a Twins pitching staff in a long time. Unfortunately, 1422 (474.0 IP) of those outs belong to pitchers who are either no longer on the Twins or are going to be headed to free agency. With the departures of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Emilio Pagan, responsible for 82.3% of the depart(ing)(ed) innings, the Twins may need to be very active in the offseason to acquire arms. Let's see how many outs/innings they have in-house.

The Guarantees

The Twins were very fortunate this year to get full years out of Lopez, Gray, and Duran, their top three pitchers. Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, and Kenta Maeda had IL stints, but they were active for the bulk of the season. These are the guys that the Twins are going to count on being consistent next year.

Pablo Lopez: ~180 innings

Joe Ryan: ~170 innings

Bailey Ober: ~150 innings

Jhoan Duran: ~65 innings

Griffin Jax: ~65 innings

Having 43.4% of your team's innings pitched by your team's top five pitchers is fantastic. Lopez, Ryan, and Ober may surpass their guesstimated innings, but when accounting for the likelihood that one or more of them has to spend time on the IL (hopefully not), I feel that these are reasonable guesses given where they were last year and where they project to be this year.

The Wildcards

All of these guys are locks to make the opening-day roster, but there are some questions about their role or injury history. These guys can make or break your staff, and hopefully, all of them can surpass their estimations for the year.

Chris Paddack: ~120 innings

Louie Varland: ~80 innings

Caleb Thielbar: ~45 innings

Cody Funderburk: ~45 innings

Brock Stewart: ~45 innings

It looks like Chris Paddack is a shoo-in for a rotation spot, though I believe he'll need a couple of IL stints to rest while he builds up to a full starter's workload. Varland seems like he'll go to the bullpen, but I think he'll make a couple of spot starts here and there- it's difficult to predict his role. The bullpen guys are either injury-prone and on the wrong side of 30 or a rookie whom it's difficult to pen in for a full season of work. The Twins should plan for 335 innings from these guys, which moves them up to 965/1450 innings.

The Depth Pieces

Maybe a few of these guys will make the opening-day roster, but these are your 4A bullpen arms and spot starters who are going to have elevated roles in July when guys are hurt, and you have a stretch of 24 games in 26 days. If these guys drastically surpass their guesstimates, something has gone very right or very wrong.

Brent Headrick: ~30 innings

Cole Sands: ~30 innings

Simeon Woods Richardson: ~30 innings

Josh Winder: ~30 innings

Jovanni Moran: ~30 innings

Jordan Balazovic: ~20 innings

Oliver Ortega: ~20 innings

Jorge Alcala: ~20 innings

The first four guys have started games for the Twins, but their likeliest roles will be as longmen in the relief corps. Alcala and Moran were once thought to be key pieces of the bullpen, and 2024 seems like the last opportunity for those guys. These in-house options bring the innings total to 1175/1450.

The Prospects

Obviously, we're going to have some guys making their big-league debuts. Unlike the depth pieces, if one of these guys seriously surpasses their guesstimate, it is very likely that things have gone seriously right for the rookie pitcher. Here are some guys who I expect will make their debut in 2023.

Matt Canterino: ~10 innings

David Festa: ~10 innings

Marco Raya: ~10 innings

It's difficult to count on any of these guys to pitch more than two spot starts or two weeks' worth of appearances out of the bullpen, but if we're mapping out a 162-game season, it is reasonable to assume that the Twins get at least 30 innings from debutants. 

The Position Players

There are going to be some big blowouts, and hopefully, the Twins are on the winning end of most of them.

Willi Castro: ~2 innings

Nick Gordon: ~2 innings

TBD: ~1 inning

The Twins got 3.2 IP from Castro and Luplow in '23, so 5 IP is reasonable. Hopefully, it's fewer than five innings, but they move the total to 1210/1450.

ERA Calculations 

The Twins finished 6th in the majors with a team ERA of 3.87. If we assume that the "guarantees" will give the Twins a cumulative 3.40 ERA, the "wild cards" will give the Twins a cumulative 3.80 ERA, the "depth pieces" will give a combined 5.00 ERA, and the prospects/position players will give a combined 7.50 ERA, the Twins currently have 1210 innings of 3.91 ERA ball on staff. Of course, that's assuming, to a large degree, that the important pitchers stay healthy, but these numbers have to look so much better than they would have in 2017-2022.

240 Innings To Go

The Twins have resources this year, and the starting pitcher market looks much better than the relief market or position players. Given the Twins' success in acquiring big-ticket starting pitchers, I suggest that any big-ticket move made by the FO involves a starter. Riding or dying on Lopez/Ryan/Ober is much preferable to riding or dying on Gibson/Santana/Berrios, but adding another top-flight arm could turn this staff from "really good" to "untouchable."

Another factor that needs to be mentioned is that the Twins will need eight to ten starters for the season. Unless you are planning on being bad, having a bullpen game every 5th day is unsustainable and unlikely to yield positive results. I count six currently (Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland, and one of the depth pieces). Getting another pitcher who's going to give you ~180 innings of ~3.50 ERA ball will not only lower the guesstimated team ERA to 3.85 (below the '23 mark), but it turns a season-ending injury to Joe Ryan from "catastrophic" to "bad, but we'll manage." It should also be noted that unless you want to see Winder, Sands, Headrick, and SWR all make multiple starts, it may be a good idea to sign some depth so we don't have to see one of those guys take the ball in a key game with Detroit/Cleveland down the stretch.

It's up to the front office to determine who is responsible for these 240 innings. If they sit on their hands and add pieces equivalent to the depth we already have (5.00 ERA), the team ERA would drop to 4.08, and our stellar staff would drop to average (or worse) in one offseason. We have the makings of something special here. Don't let good be the enemy of great, and don't let "sufficient to win an AL Central crown" be the enemy of "WS caliber."

[Rik19753]

Thanks for the fantastic post. Not only is this an excellent analysis, it's probably also very similar to the actual thought process of the FO when they are making their offseason plans.

One thing I would like to add is that the FO might actually be planning for something close to 1550 or 1600 IP instead of 1450 IP. I think that is what they tried to do this year when they had Ober start the year in the minors. That allows them to still have quality depth when someone goes down early in the season like Mahle did this year.

Given how well that plan worked, I think it's possible that they add another "guarantee" to their staff and start Varland in the minors. I also think they are going to be in the market for 2 average to above average relievers at the level of Pagan. That should add up to 300 or so innings, which would be a little more than the 240 that you proposed.

[terrydactyls]

Fascinating report but I'm afraid I have to question your math.  The Twins staff pitched 1541.3 innings.  Gray, Maeda, and Pagan accounted for 357.67 of those innings or 24.67%.  If you add back Paddock at 120.0 innings (I think he may do better but I'll use your number), that's only 16.4% loss.  That only leaves 237.67 innings to replace, or one starter and two relievers.  That's not an insurmountable task.  Maybe Gray signs a new deal?  That would then just leave two relievers to add.  No biggie.  It shouldn't be too hard to replace Dallas Kuechle, Jose De Leon, Dylan Floro, and Jose Alcala.

[Linus]

Thanks for researching and writing this. Very informative. 

[stringer bell]

I think Varland will be a starter in waiting at worst and a member of the rotation most likely. He hasn’t had injury issues to date and he has some (positive) experience in a bullpen role. I don’t think the Twins will use an option on him unless he is ineffective—that is, if he doesn’t make the starting five, he works out of the BP. 

This thread makes a pretty good case for acquiring a starter. López, Paddack, Ryan, Ober, Varland is a pretty good start, and four of those five were healthy last year, but even in healthy years, a team needs 7-8 starters at some point in the season. 
 

Pagán provided a lot of bullpen innings the last two years—much more effective in ‘23. I do think a mostly reliable bullpen arm should be acquired to replace him ( or re-sign him). A lefty would be preferable.