Joel Sherman: MLB Qualifying Offer Will Rise To $20.5M

[East Coast Twin]

The qualifying offer is expected to increase to $20.5M this off season, according to Joel Sherman of the NY Post.  Sonny Gray is listed as a player who will probably receive an offer.

https://nypost.com/2023/09/20/mlb-qualifying-offer-to-be-around-high-of-20-5-million/

 

[DJL44]

Gray should obviously get an offer which he is very likely to turn down in favor of $100M as a free agent.

The question is whether to give Maeda an offer. He's probably worth 2-3 years at $30-40M total. Would he turn down 1-$20.5 to try for 3-$40? There's room in the rotation if he accepts; I don't expect Paddack to give them 180 innings.

[mnfireman]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Gray should obviously get an offer which he is very likely to turn down in favor of $100M as a free agent.

 

Gray turns 34 on Nov 7, who gives him a $100 MM contract in FA? Bassitt and Eovaldi are the 2 closest examples of a FA SP of his age and talent and they received 3 years and 2 years respectively. 3/$50 MM is probably his target window.

[Linus]

I want to bring Maeda back but he isn’t going to get the QO. He would probably get about $12 million a year for two years. 

[Linus]

2 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Gray turns 34 on Nov 7, who gives him a $100 MM contract in FA? Bassitt and Eovaldi are the 2 closest examples of a FA SP of his age and talent and they received 3 years and 2 years respectively. 3/$50 MM is probably his target window.

I think Gray will get a better contract than those guys. I’m guessing 3 years $60 million. 

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Gray turns 34 on Nov 7, who gives him a $100 MM contract in FA? Bassitt and Eovaldi are the 2 closest examples of a FA SP of his age and talent and they received 3 years and 2 years respectively. 3/$50 MM is probably his target window.

Strongly disagree. He has the same age/success profile as Yu Darvish.

[Vanimal46]

5 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Gray turns 34 on Nov 7, who gives him a $100 MM contract in FA? Bassitt and Eovaldi are the 2 closest examples of a FA SP of his age and talent and they received 3 years and 2 years respectively. 3/$50 MM is probably his target window.

Gray is likely the best FA SP on the market this winter. He’ll finish in 2nd in the Cy Young voting. The dude is gonna get paid much more than we expect. 

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, Linus said:

I want to bring Maeda back but he isn’t going to get the QO. He would probably get about $12 million a year for two years. 

Syndergaard managed to get $13M coming off a bad season. Any random free agent 4th starter gets 1-$10M. Maeda should easily beat that. I see 2 years $30M as his low end and a bidding war would push it up to 3 years $40M. If you attach a draft pick to him with a QO that probably hurts so maybe his bottom end is 2-$28 and top end is 3-$36M.

If I'm Maeda I take 1-$20.5 instead of 2-$28 but not instead of 3-$36.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Syndergaard managed to get $13M coming off a bad season. Any random free agent 4th starter gets 1-$10M. Maeda should easily beat that. I see 2 years $30M as his low end and a bidding war would push it up to 3 years $40M. If you attach a draft pick to him with a QO that probably hurts so maybe his bottom end is 2-$28 and top end is 3-$36M.

If I'm Maeda I take 1-$20.5 instead of 2-$28 but not instead of 3-$36.

Kenta would take the QO in a heartbeat. I can’t see anyone offering a contract through his age 39 season. 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

Kenta would take the QO in a heartbeat. I can’t see anyone offering a contract through his age 39 season. 

I don't think he would get a 4 year deal either.

[DJL44]

MLB Trade Rumors did their pitcher preview

Quote

• Sonny Gray (34)

Gray is the oldest of this group but is having arguably the best platform season. He’s tossed 174 innings over his 30 starts for the Twins with a 2.84 ERA in that time. He has struck out 23.9% of opponents, walked just 7.6% and kept batted balls on the ground at a 47.4% rate. Snell’s ERA of 2.33 is half a run better than Gray’s, but the former has benefitted from a .255 batting average on balls in play and 86.2% strand rate, leading to a 3.48 FIP that is significantly higher than Gray’s 2.85.

After a rough 2018 season in which he had an ERA of 4.90 with the Yankees, Gray was traded to the Reds and signed a contract extension that ran through 2022 and had a club option for 2023. By signing that deal, he locked in some significant earnings but also pushed off his free agency until now. He will still get paid on the heels of his excellent season but he will be limited in terms of length. Last winter, Chris Bassitt got three years and $63MM from the Jays going into his age-34 campaign, with his track record and platform year both less impressive than Gray’s. Gray could look for four or five years as a result. He will receive and reject a qualifying offer.

 

[DJL44]

Quote

• Kenta Maeda (36)

Maeda’s first full season back from Tommy John surgery has been better than it might look at first glance. The right-hander’s 101 innings of 4.28 ERA ball seem solid enough on the surface, but that’s skewed by a 10-run drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox, after which Maeda hit the injured list due to a triceps injury. Maeda missed nearly two months, but since returning he’s rattled off 16 starts of 3.39 ERA ball, striking out 28.7% of his opponents against a 6.7% walk rate. The extent to which that injury impacted his one true meltdown of the year can’t be fully known, but since returning, he’s looked close to the version of himself that finished second in American League Cy Young voting back in 2020. He should find a multi-year deal at a healthy annual value this winter, although his age might limit it to a two-year term.