Twins Fantasy Fix (8/13): Reinforcements on the Way

[Mike Rose]

A few notable Twins are expected back soon. Here’s a look at some of the fantasy impacts.

Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins have been inconsistent on offense all season, and part of the culprit lately has been injuries, as all of Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff are out (not to mention Joe Ryan on the mound).

Lewis appears to be the closest to returning (more on that below), and as a result, I’m most bullish on his fantasy outlook the rest of the way. Lewis should play everyday when he’s back with the Twins, but the key question is where. Minnesota has been using Jorge Polanco at third base in an effort to keep Edouard Julien’s bat in the lineup at second base. Lewis has mostly played third during his recent rehab stint, however, so it seems like he’ll end up back there, with Polanco returning to second and Julien getting first and/or DH.

That will have a trickle down effect, which will be compounded by the (likely) eventual returns of Buxton and Kirilloff. Buxton has exclusively served as the DH this year, so if Julien is getting reps there, a platoon situation may develop. Kirilloff, meanwhile, typically plays first or a corner outfield spot. His return should hopefully and finally mean the end of the Joey Gallo experiment, assuming the Twins realize that Matt Wallner needs to retain a regular role. Donovan Solano is also back in the lineup Sunday after missing four games with a right knee issue, and he gives the Twins an option at first against southpaws, with Kirilloff likely to slot in against righties when he’s able to return.

Let’s now take a closer look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid.

Twins Injury Updates
Joe Ryan
Expected return: TBD
Ryan is still out with a groin strain. Dallas Keuchel has made two starts in the meantime, though his second one was a disaster and could be his last with the Twins. With no clear return set for Ryan, Louie Varland may return to Minnesota’s rotation, where he had some success earlier in the year before falling off.

Byron Buxton
Expected return: TBD
Buxton remains out with a hamstring strain. The team expects him to be shut down for a few weeks before reevaluating. He’s yet to resume any type of baseball activity, and while no word on a shutdown has emerged yet, it’s not out of the question in what’s become a lost season for Buxton.

Alex Kirilloff
Expected return: TBD
Kirilloff is dealing with a right shoulder strain and remains without a clear timeline, though it seems like he should return this season.

Royce Lewis
Expected return: August
Lewis continues to recover from a Grade 2 oblique strain. He began a rehab assignment with the Saints on Tuesday. In four games, he hit .417/.500/.917 (1.417) with two homers and a stolen base. He played two games at third base and made the plays. The stats don't really matter. He got through the week without any  setbacks. As noted above, he’ll likely slot back in at third, though he could possibly play in center to give the Twins some versatility.

Stock Rising: Pablo Lopez
ESPN ownership: 97%
I firmly stick by my take that Pablo Lopez is an ace and the Twins were right to move Luis Arraez to acquire him. Over the righty’s last five starts, he has a 1.45 ERA and 35 strikeouts across 31 innings. For the season, he has a 3.66 ERA and 180 strikeouts (good for third in the majors) across 147 2/3 innings. His 3.19 FIP suggests his ERA may continue to drop as he turns in ace-like production for fantasy managers.

Stock Falling: Bailey Ober
ESPN ownership: 45%
Bailey Ober is trending in the opposite direction of Lopez. Over his last five starts, Ober has a 5.88 ERA and has served up seven home runs. His season ERA still sits at a solid 3.40, but he’s been way less dominant lately. The workload could be catching up to Ober, as he’s now up to a career-high 108 2/3 innings after not reaching 100 MLB innings in either of his previous two seasons. The righty is still usable in the right spots, though I think he’s fallen into more of the streamer category versus a must start.

Prospect Spotlight: Emmanuel Rodriguez (High-A Cedar Rapids)
The 20-year-old top prospect has a solid .851 OPS this year for the Kernels, and he’s been even better in August with a robust 1.147 OPS across nine games. And most importantly, he avoided a serious injury after colliding with the wall recently, as Twins Daily’s Seth Stohs noted. Rodriguez is still a few years away from the majors, though he could be a force by the time he’s ready.

Upcoming Week Matchup Notes
2 Games vs Detroit (Alex Faedo, Reese Olson)
3 Games vs Pittsburgh (Mitch Keller, Andre Jackson, Quinn Priester)
After a full seven games on the road this past week, the Twins are set for a lighter week at home. With only five games on the schedule, it may be hard to use any Minnesota hitters in weekly formats. However, in daily formats, the Twins set up well on paper, as Cedar Rapids-native Mitch Keller is the only real established option on the docket. And he’s struggled lately with a 9.11 ERA over his last five starts. Detroit and Pittsburgh are also both in the bottom six in the league in runs scored, so Minnesota starters look to have very promising matchups, though no one is set to take the mound twice.

Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch
With no lefties on the schedule, Edouard Julien should be in line for a good week, along with potentially Max Kepler.

Despite neither pitcher being much of a standout, the Twins have struggled collectively for some reason against Faedo and Olson. The team obviously doesn’t have as much experience against Pittsburgh’s hurlers, though notably, Kyle Farmer is 8-for-15 against Keller from his time with the Reds. He could be a good low-budget DFS option that day, assuming the Twins slot him into the lineup.

Which Minnesota player are you most excited to see return from a fantasy perspective? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week.

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[glunn]

I don't play fantasy baseball, but I enjoyed the information and presentation.  Thank you.

[John Belinski]

I think Lewis will help the Twins win when he comes back.  Twins need a good right handed hitter.