Twins Fantasy Fix (8/6): Case Closed for Carlos?

[Mike Rose]

I wanted to believe in Carlos Correa in fantasy, but time might be about up for the shortstop.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

I really wanted to believe in Carlos Correa, fantasy star. I wrote about staying patient in June, then made the case for him last month when he moved into the leadoff spot.

However, as Nick Nelson so succinctly wrote about earlier this week, it may be time to give up on the breakout. This might actually be what Correa is for fantasy purposes, and if that’s the case, there are plenty of better options likely available on your waiver wire. For starters, the opposing shortstop this weekend, Arizona’s Geraldo Perdomo , is available in about 85% of ESPN leagues. He’s batting .269 this season and has swiped 13 bases. At this point, you’d probably welcome that level of production versus what you may get from Correa.

A few other shortstops who are lightly owned that you might want to consider: CJ Abrams, Orlando Arcia and Anthony Volpe. All are available in about 70% of leagues or more, and in the case of Abrams and Volpe, have at least 20 stolen bases.

Speaking of lightly owned players, I’m going to continue my look at under-the-radar fantasy options from each team. This week, I’ll run through the AL West:

Rangers: Mitch Garver (3% owned). Hello, old friend! With Johan Heim injured, Garver has taken over as the team’s primary catcher, and he’s been solid with an .832 OPS this year.

Astros: Jose Urquidy (11%). The righty is returning to the rotation Sunday after being out since April due to a shoulder injury, and he struggled when he was healthy, but he was decent last year and could be a streaming option the rest of this year with a strong team behind him.

Mariners: Eugenio Suarez (22%). Twins fans are familiar with what Suarez can do when he gets hot. He’s only batting .232 but has 16 home runs and could be worth targeting if he heats up.

Angels: Mickey Moniak (16%). Moniak has been a pleasant surprise for the Angels all year, batting .307 with 12 home runs, often from the leadoff spot.

Athletics: Trevor May (3%). Another old friend! May has become Oakland’s closer, and while that job doesn’t come with a ton of opportunities, it still gives him a little fantasy value at a very cheap price.

Let’s now look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid.

Twins Injury Updates
Joe Ryan
Expected return: TBD
It was revealed that Ryan has been dealing with a groin strain, which could explain his recent struggles. The team decided to move him to the injured list, opening up a rotation spot for Dallas Keuchel in the meantime. Ryan should be able to return before the season ends, though it remains to be seen if the Twins keep Keuchel in the rotation and decide to roll with six starters at some point.

Byron Buxton
Expected return: TBD
Buxton also hit the injured list recently with a hamstring strain. The team expects him to be shut down for a few weeks before reevaluating. Buxton has mostly struggled all year, so perhaps some time away is just what he needs to get right. That could benefit fantasy managers in the long run, but there’s not really a long run left this season, so Buxton might not have a chance to make much of an impact before the campaign wraps up.

Alex Kirilloff
Expected return: TBD
The third of three Minnesota players to hit the injured list recently, Kirilloff is dealing with a right shoulder strain. He received a cortisone injection and is still allowing the shoulder to rest before he begins any kind of rehab work.

Royce Lewis
Expected return: August
Lewis continues to recover from a Grade 2 oblique strain. He’s been playing catch from 120 feet and taking batting practice, and his return shouldn’t be too far off, which is good news for a team missing Buxton and Kirilloff. Lewis should regain an everyday role, though it’s unclear if that will be at third base or elsewhere with Jorge Polanco playing the hot corner lately.

Brock Stewart
Expected return: TBD
Stewart was originally expected back shortly after the All-Star break, but he experienced a setback in his recovery from right elbow soreness, and the team shifted him to the 60-day injured list. He could return in September if everything goes well, but the Twins will proceed cautiously. 

Stock Rising: Matt Wallner
ESPN ownership: 1%
Wallner is available in pretty much every league, and he could be worth taking a chance on as he starts to see regular playing time. Over his last 10 games, the young outfielder has five home runs and a 1.076 OPS. The eventual return of Buxton, Kirilloff and Lewis will complicate the playing time picture, but Joey Gallo should be more at risk than Wallner. As long as Wallner keeps hitting the ball over the wall, he should remain in the lineup.

Stock Falling: Byron Buxton
ESPN ownership: 50%
Like with Correa, I wanted to believe that a breakout was coming, but it doesn’t look like it’s coming for Buxton either. His latest injury might be the final nail in the coffin, as he’s running out of time to get into a groove of any kind. Buxton still has immense talent, though it looks like 2023 will go down as a lost season, and fantasy managers can probably move on if they don’t have any IL spots available.

Prospect Spotlight: Brooks Lee (Triple-A St. Paul)
Lee was promoted to Triple-A earlier in the month, and he earned the promotion with a .292 average and 11 home runs across 87 games at the Double-A level. Lee is an advanced hitter for a prospect, making his MLB debut a possibility later this year. He’s already on the radar in dynasty formats, but managers in redraft leagues might want to take notice soon as well.

Upcoming Week Matchup Notes
4 Games at Detroit (Joey Wentz, Eduardo Rodriguez, Reese Olson, Tarik Skubal)
3 Games at Philadelphia (Cristopher Sanchez, Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suarez)
It could be a tough week for Minnesota’s hitters, as the club is slated to face five left-handed starters in seven games, and their struggles against southpaws are well documented at this point. Twins’ pitchers could be in a better spot, at least to begin the week when they’ll face Detroit, a team that is 29th in the league in runs scored.

Two-Start Starting Pitchers 
Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray. Both righties have been good lately, and with the matchups against the Tigers coming up, I like both of them in lineups this week.

Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch
In theory, this would be a good week for right-handed Minnesota batters. Ryan Jeffers may be the player to watch, as he’s sporting a 1.431 OPS across his last 10 games. The Twins are still giving Christian Vazquez regular playing time for some reason, but Jeffers is making it harder and harder to keep him out of the lineup.

As far as stackable spots, Wentz (6.37 ERA) and Olson (4.94 ERA) look like the best targets. The Twins have actually struggled against Wentz with a .159 batting average across 44 all-time at-bats, but his struggles this year make it seem like that trend could change. Olson is a rookie with a much shorter track record against the Twins. He’s one of the few righties on the schedule this week, so Edouard Julien and Max Kepler (and maybe Gallo, if you’re desperate) could make sense in daily formats.

Is Correa cooked in fantasy? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week.

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